On Tuesday, June 21, the Russian currency strengthens on the Moscow Exchange.

During the auction, the dollar exchange rate fell by 2.6% to 54.2 rubles.

The last time a similar indicator could be observed was in June 2015.

At the same time, the euro exchange rate fell by 3% to 57.09 rubles.

Since the beginning of the month, the national currency has risen in price by about 12% against the US and by 8% against the European one.

The observed dynamics is largely related to the continuing surplus in Russia's trade and balance of payments.

This opinion was shared with RT by the head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments Vasily Karpunin.

“We see a significant excess of export earnings over imports.

At the same time, there is a process of voluntary devaluation by companies, because due to sanctions, businesses are afraid of the West holding their foreign currency accounts.

At the same time, the demand of enterprises for foreign currency for investing abroad has fallen significantly in the face of external restrictions,” Karpunin explained.

In addition, the tax period provides additional support to the Russian currency, Vladislav Antonov, a financial analyst at BitRiver, believes.

As the interlocutor of RT explained, at this time, exporting companies traditionally sell more foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.

Moreover, companies will start paying dividends for 2021 in July.

As a result, the sale of foreign currency by businesses will intensify, the specialist added.

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  • © Sefa Karacan / Anadolu Agency

Recall that back in early spring, the dollar and euro for the first time rose above 121 and 132 rubles, respectively.

This is how the market reacted to the introduction of a number of economic sanctions by Western countries against Russia.

Then, to stabilize the situation, the Central Bank and the government approved a set of measures.

In particular, exporters were obliged to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings, that is, to exchange dollars and euros received from the sale of goods abroad for rubles.

Along with this, the Central Bank temporarily raised the key rate to 20% per annum, limited the withdrawal of capital abroad and introduced a temporary procedure for the circulation of cash in the country.

As Dmitry Volvach, deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development, told RT, the actions of the authorities made it possible to quickly reach a “rather comfortable” ruble exchange rate, and then to the pre-crisis level.

As a result, the Central Bank began to reduce the key rate and ease restrictions on the financial market, and it was decided to cancel the requirement for exporters to sell foreign exchange earnings.

However, the ruble is still strengthening due to inertial processes, Volvach believes.

  • Dmitry Volvach on the strengthening of the ruble

“Now there is some inertia from the decisions made, and the ruble is even re-strengthening.

However, any extremes here are not very good.

That is, the weakening of the ruble leads to inflationary processes and a rise in the cost of goods, as a result of which the consumer suffers.

If the ruble is overstrengthened, then sooner or later our producers will begin to suffer,” said Dmitry Volvach on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

A similar point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by the analyst of Alfa Capital Management Company Alexander Dzhioev.

According to him, against the backdrop of a sharp appreciation of the national currency, Russian companies, when delivering the same volume of goods abroad, receive a smaller amount of ruble revenue.

As a result, tax revenues from exporters to the budget are reduced, which leads to a reduction in the revenue side of the treasury.

Target

As First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Andrey Belousov noted earlier, the excessive strengthening of the national currency is due to the fact that the Central Bank does not target the ruble exchange rate.

At the same time, the deputy head of the Cabinet of Ministers called 70-80 rubles per dollar the optimal level for Russian industry.

“We see that the Bank of Russia is consistently lowering the key rate, a few days ago it lowered it to 9.5%.

This is evidence that we have the problem of high inflation, which really stood, has now given way to problems related primarily to the overvalued exchange rate and the need to stimulate production, ”TASS quotes Belousova.

In the meantime, the Central Bank opposed the targeting of the ruble exchange rate.

According to Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin, this practice carries risks for the economic sovereignty of the country.

“If we tie the parameters of our monetary policy to the fact that our currency has some fixed or slightly fluctuating rate, nominal against currencies where inflation is 8-10%, then our inflation will be the same.

This option is unacceptable to us,” Zabotkin stressed.

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  • © Maria Devakhina

According to experts interviewed by RT, in the near future the Central Bank will try to contain the strengthening of the ruble by further lifting restrictions on the financial market.

In addition, according to Vladislav Antonov, the regulator may further reduce the key rate or limit the payment of dividends to companies.

“Nevertheless, due to the tax period and the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 53 rubles, and the euro exchange rate to 54.5 rubles.

So far, the ruble lives in its own reality, ignoring all negative factors, ”added Antonov.

As Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance, suggested in an interview with RT, the weakening of the ruble may begin towards the end of summer, when the government returns to the budget rule.

As part of this initiative, the Ministry of Finance bought dollars and euros for the National Wealth Fund, and thus, in fact, did not allow the ruble to strengthen much.

Now, on behalf of the president, the government is preparing a new budget rule.

“We believe that until this moment the exchange rates will be in wide corridors.

So, until the end of summer, the dollar can be traded in the range of 55-75 rubles, and the euro - around 58-63 rubles," Milchakova concluded.