The Chinese economy is starting to recover!

　　Chinanews Finance, June 15 (Reporter Li Jinlei) After experiencing the "cold spring" in April, China's economy ushered in positive changes in May. Most of the main indicators improved, and "recovery" became the key word.

Export and other indicators improved

　　From the perspective of the "troika" driving economic growth, although consumption was still negative in May, the decline narrowed sharply.

In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 6.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month.

　　The growth rate of exports rebounded sharply. In May, the total import and export of goods increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 9.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

Among them,

This is mainly due to the gradual improvement of foreign trade logistics, the resumption of production of foreign trade enterprises, and the release of the backlog of foreign trade orders in the early stage.

　　Investment grew steadily.

From January to May, the investment in fixed assets increased by 6.2% year-on-year and remained basically stable, of which the investment in infrastructure increased by 6.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first four months.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told Zhongxin Finance that the issuance of special bonds supports the growth of infrastructure investment in advance. The 3.45 trillion yuan quota issued this year is required to be basically issued by the end of June, and strive to be basically used by the end of August. , is expected to form a continuous support for the source of capital investment in infrastructure, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain rapid growth, which is expected to become the main force for steady growth this year.

　　In addition, industrial production has changed from falling to rising.

In May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.9% in April; in May, the manufacturing purchasing manager index was 49.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Wen Bin analyzed that this is mainly due to the overall improvement of the epidemic situation, the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the improvement of economic activity.

On the one hand, the epidemic has weakened restrictions on production and logistics. On the other hand, demand has been repaired, and external demand is still resilient to support my country's export growth recovery and domestic demand has improved.

Ningbo Zhoushan Port.

Photo by Tang Jiankai

Prices are generally stable

　　In terms of employment, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.9 percent in May, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the unemployment rate of migrants with agricultural household registration was 6.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

　　In terms of prices, in

The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.9% year-on-year, also unchanged from the previous month, indicating that market prices were basically stable.

　　Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that in May, there were indeed positive changes in economic performance.

With the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effect of policies and measures to stabilize growth has gradually emerged, and positive changes in economic performance have increased.

　　Production in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast regions, which were hit hard by the epidemic in the early stage, improved significantly.

In May, the added value of industries above designated size in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Northeast region fell by 3.2% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively, and the decline was more than 10 percentage points lower than the previous month.

　　The national economy showed a recovery momentum in May, which also restored market confidence to a certain extent.

On June 15, the three major A-share stock indexes rose, and the Shanghai index returned to above 3,300 points.

job-seeking students.

(Data map) Photo by Liu Zhankun

Consumption and youth employment still need high attention

　　"On the whole, the epidemic situation has generally improved recently, and restrictions on economic activities have weakened. With the implementation of a package of measures to stabilize the economy, the real economy has also shown signs of improvement." Wen Bin pointed out, but we must also see that in the new crown pneumonia Under the influence of the continuous evolution of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, the uncertainty of the global economic development prospects has increased. my country's economy still faces many difficulties and challenges, especially the lack of aggregate demand, consumption is still weak, and employment pressure is high .

　　Consumption and youth employment still require high priority.

In terms of consumption, under the influence of the epidemic, consumption has experienced negative growth for three consecutive months.

The data shows that the consumption of grain, oil, food, petroleum and products increased in May, while the consumption of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, textiles, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, and automobiles all decreased by more than 10% year-on-year. %.

　　Wen Bin said that the overall data showed that mandatory consumption continued to grow, and optional consumption fell more, reflecting the current lack of willingness to consume.

In addition, offline consumption and service consumption are still greatly restricted. Catering revenue this month fell by 21.1% year-on-year. Although the decline narrowed slightly by 1.6 percentage points, it maintained a decline of more than 20% for two consecutive months.

　　In terms of youth employment, in May, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 was 18.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Fu Linghui said that

The main reason is that under the influence of the epidemic, the production and operation of enterprises has been difficult, and the ability to absorb employment has declined. At the same time, young people are more inclined to apply for stable positions, which has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand.

This year, there are 10.76 million college graduates in my country. With the arrival of the graduation season, college graduates will enter the labor market in a concentrated manner, which may further increase the employment pressure.

How will the economy perform in the second quarter?

　　Regarding the economic trend in the second quarter, Fu Linghui said that in April, affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places, the main economic indicators declined. In May, the epidemic prevention and control improved, and production demand showed positive changes, but some indicators still fell year-on-year.

　　He judged that, on the whole, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are implemented and effective, with the joint efforts of all parties,

　　Wen Bin suggested that in the next stage, it is necessary to implement a package of measures to stabilize the economy, continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, intensify efforts to boost domestic demand, do a good job in bailouts for difficult areas, industries and people, and increase support for employment. We will make efforts to reverse the expectations of market players as soon as possible, enhance confidence, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.

(Finish)