China News Service, June 14 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The situation seems to be changing.

　　According to the schedule, the operation of the national economy in May will be released on June 15.

The export, financial and other data released in advance exceeded market expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy has sent a positive signal.

Exceeding expectations for import and export data

　　Affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, the growth rate of foreign trade declined in April, and the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports was only 0.1%.

However, the import and export data in May swept away the haze, and the growth rate rebounded sharply, exceeding market expectations.

　　According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in May, my country's total import and export value was 3.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%.

Among them, the export was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3%; the import was 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; the trade surplus was 502.89 billion yuan, an increase of 79.1%.

　　From 0.1% close to zero growth to 9.6% close to double digits, why has China's foreign trade "turned over" so quickly?

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that since May, the impact of the domestic epidemic on exports has begun to weaken, and the production and logistics environments have improved. In addition, foreign trade companies have already had a large backlog of orders in the early stage, and the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted. The growth rate has rebounded significantly.

At the same time, the base effect also played a role.

　　Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the government has intensively introduced policies to stabilize foreign trade, and some major ports have gradually resumed loading, unloading and transshipment, and the efficiency of customs clearance has been significantly improved.

With the release of the previous backlog of orders, the foreign trade data in May showed a significant improvement.

Ningbo Zhoushan Port.

Photo by Tang Jiankai

Financial data also rebounded sharply

　　Central bank data show that at the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 252.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.

　　Renminbi loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 392 billion yuan.

The scale of social financing increased by 2.79 trillion yuan in May, 839.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said the overall increase in financial data this month exceeded expectations.

The growth rate of M2 rebounded quickly, and the 11.1% increase was the same as the highest growth rate during the severe impact of the epidemic in 2020. Credit and social financing also increased more than the same period last year, reflecting the monetary and financial policies to implement a package of stable growth policy requirements. Large credit supply strength, the effect of the transmission of loose money to loose credit appears.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng analyzed that social financing rebounded strongly in May, and the dawn of credit stabilization gradually appeared.

The easing of the domestic epidemic situation, the promotion of resumption of work and production in many places, and the increased support of financial institutions for the real economy have driven the new social financing in May to reach the second highest point in history for the same period, only lower than that in May 2020.

The category structure of social financing growth is relatively balanced, with strong on-balance-sheet credit growth and accelerated issuance of government bonds being the main reasons for the year-on-year increase in social financing.

　　Dong Ximiao, a part-time researcher at the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University, pointed out to Zhongxin Finance that for more than a month, the state and localities have introduced a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, and increased the rescue and assistance to the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

Judging from the financial data in May, a series of policy measures are playing a positive role.

Data map: People's Bank of China.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong

PMI also picked up

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index rose simultaneously, reaching 49.6%, 47.8% and 48.4% respectively. Although they were lower than the threshold, they were significantly higher. 2.2, 5.9 and 5.7 percentage points in the previous month.

　　Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this shows that factors such as the recent epidemic situation and changes in the international situation have had a greater impact on economic operations. Levels have improved from April.

How to stabilize the economy next?

　　Although the above-mentioned economic indicators have released positive signals, there are also "hidden concerns" behind the data. The downward pressure cannot be underestimated, and there is still a long way to go to stabilize the economy.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng pointed out that exports still face "hidden worries": First, the demand from overseas developed economies is still falling.

Second, the recovery of the production capacity of other export-oriented economies has put pressure on my country's export market share to fall.

Third, in the first half of the year, my country's export growth was supported by price factors, and the export volume has begun to show negative growth.

　　Wen Bin analyzed that this month's financial data shows that the effect of loose money on credit is showing, but the growth of medium and long-term loans for enterprises and residents is not satisfactory, indicating that the financing needs of the real economy are still weak.

In the next stage, it is necessary to further implement the requirements of a package of stable growth policies, vigorously boost effective demand, optimize the credit structure, focus on promoting medium and long-term credit growth, accelerate the improvement of expectations, boost confidence, and promote the economy to stabilize and recover as soon as possible, operating within a reasonable range.

　　Dong Ximiao suggested that in the next step, we should continue to implement a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, take more practical and effective measures, coordinate and balance the relationship between epidemic prevention and control and economic development, and reduce the excessive impact of epidemic prevention and control on the economy and people's livelihood as soon as possible. Macroeconomic policies should continue to exert sufficient force, stay ahead of the market curve, help market players solve difficulties and steadily recover the real economy, and reverse problems such as insufficient market confidence and insufficient demand for effective credit as soon as possible.

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