Many have called Russia's attack on Ukraine a "turning point" in view of the geostrategic consequences.

However, it was initially not so clear whether the war in Europe would herald a whole new era for the economy and the financial markets.

However, anyone who orders a new car these days will be put off with the delivery until next year.

Hanno Mussler

Editor in Business.

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Disrupted supply chains lead to bottlenecks and price increases;

they even provoke recession fears.

In addition, this week the European Central Bank finally announced the long overdue turnaround in interest rates.

There were also reports that a Covid lockdown would be imposed in seven counties in China this weekend.

This news mix is ​​not good for the Dax.

The leading German stock index had recovered quite well from its deep fall in February.

As a reminder: With the attack on Ukraine, the Dax slipped from a good 16,000 Dax points in January to 12,800 points.

From mid-March onwards, however, the Dax fluctuated between around 13,400 and 14,800 points.

Recently, its range of fluctuation had narrowed further and the situation seemed to be calming down.

But this week, the Dax resumed its downward trend and fell below 14,000 points.

The ECB set the pace.

On Friday alone, the Dax slipped 3.1 percent and closed at just 13,762 points.

The ECB could be too late

Unsurprisingly, the ECB announced a key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points in July.

What was even more astonishing was that it held out the prospect of a further interest rate hike of 0.5 percentage points for September.

This would put an end to the negative interest rates that have applied to banks in the euro area since 2014 – good news for savers, who in return are being bullied with “custody fees” for their savings.

But the ECB looks like it's too late to raise interest rates.

According to their own forecast, consumer prices in the euro area will rise by 6.8 percent this year and by 3.5 percent next year.

The ECB expects economic growth of 2.8 percent this year and 2 percent next year.

But many investors fear that much higher interest rates will be necessary to fight the inflation that has soared.

Together with the supply bottlenecks, they could push the economy into recession.

If the economy does face at least two quarters of contraction, current share prices may be too high.

At the long end, interest rates have already risen sharply, the federal bond with a term of ten years no longer yields 0 percent, but 1.4 percent.

There is a veritable crash in the bond market.

Bond funds that invest in European government bonds have lost more than 10 percent in value - all they have earned in the past seven years.

Newcomers should take a close look.

As soon as the air has escaped from the interest rate bubble, the first new commitments make sense.

American government bonds are waving for the first time since 2008 with a yield of 3 percent.