Data map: Car refueling.
Photo by Wu Junjie issued by China News Agency
Zhongxin Finance, June 11 (Ge Cheng) Recently, affected by the international situation, crude oil futures have an obvious upward trend.
On June 8, Brent crude oil futures closed at $123.58 a barrel, hitting a new high in nearly three months. What impact will this have on domestic oil prices?
No. 95 gasoline may exceed 10 yuan per liter
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, introduced to Zhongxin Finance: "At present, 73% of my country's crude oil is imported from abroad. At this stage, domestic oil prices are basically in strict accordance with foreign oil prices, showing a rising trend."
Affected by the rise in international oil prices, after the last round of price adjustments, No. 92 gasoline in some areas has exceeded the 9 yuan per liter mark for the first time.
At 24:00 on June 14th, a new round of price adjustment window will be opened. Many institutions predict that after the price adjustment, No. 95 gasoline in some areas may break through the 10 yuan per liter mark, a record high.
"It costs 120 yuan to drive a 100-kilometer car." Ms. Yu, who lives in Beijing, said that the fuel consumption of her car exceeds 12 liters per 100 kilometers. If the price of No. 95 gasoline rises to 10 yuan per liter, if this continues, the cost of using the car will increase Just chasing the car-hailing.
Xi Jiarui, a crude oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the pace of crude oil prices to refresh their historical highs is approaching.
According to her forecast, after entering the third quarter, the mainstream operating range of WTI crude oil futures may reach 105-135 US dollars / barrel, and the mainstream operating range of Brent crude oil futures is about 110-140 US dollars / barrel.
How long will the high international oil prices last?
In Lin Boqiang's view, oil prices can only fall if the international situation eases, but there will be no such change in the short term.
"Everyone has a high probability to prepare for several years of high oil prices."
"In the long run, the evidence that oil prices will remain high is not sufficient." Zhou Dadi, executive vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association, told Zhongxin Finance that from the perspective of economic operation, if the world economy is in recession, then oil prices will be high. There isn't much sense either.
He believes that the increase in international crude oil prices is not a problem of shortage of production and supply.
"Russia's oil production has not dropped significantly, and the world's oil flow has only experienced a partial reorganization."
Will international oil prices hit the $130 ceiling of the price adjustment mechanism?
In Lin Boqiang's view, at present, the pricing mechanism of refined oil has not been severely challenged.
"When the international oil price reaches US$130 per barrel, how to price domestic refined oil according to the mechanism to ease the burden on the people will become a real challenge."
According to the existing domestic oil price pricing rules, there is a linkage mechanism between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, but domestic oil prices will not increase "infinitely" with the fluctuations of international oil prices.
The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission once introduced that when the international oil price continues to rise, but does not exceed 130 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price will be adjusted normally according to the mechanism; Taking into account the interests of producers and consumers, and maintaining the principle of stable operation of the national economy, appropriate fiscal and taxation policies are adopted to ensure the production and supply of refined oil, and gasoline and diesel prices are not raised or less raised in principle.
What is the impact of rising international oil prices on China's economy?
According to data released by GlobalPetrolPrices on June 6, among 170 countries and regions in the world, China's gasoline prices ranked 98th from low to high, and diesel ranked 80th, which is in line with the global average price. very close.
Zhou Dadi said that with the rise in international crude oil prices and the increase in the cost of my country's oil imports, it will cost tens of billions of dollars more every year.
However, under the influence of the existing pricing mechanism, changes in domestic oil prices can be controlled within a certain range, reducing the impact of changes in international oil prices on the operation of the national economy.
Lin Boqiang also believes that, unlike European and American countries, rising crude oil prices have not had much impact on my country's economy.
Because oil accounts for less than 20% of my country's overall energy, while in the overall energy system of European and American countries, oil and gas account for more than 60%.
"China's energy is mainly based on coal. As long as coal prices are stable, there will not be too much energy inflation."
At the same time, Zhou Dadi proposed to improve the trade form of "relying on bulk low-priced products to trade", and at the same time, comprehensive measures should be taken to gradually improve the degree of energy security strategically, and reduce or avoid the impact of inflation and sudden commodity price increases on the economy.
(Finish)