Securities Times reporter Liu Yiwen
As of yesterday's close, the brokerage sector once again closed at a small Yangxian.
Since June, the brokerage sector has risen for several consecutive days, and there have been more topics about whether the brokerage stock market has started.
The Securities Times reporter noticed that at the end of May not long ago, six securities firms including Changjiang Securities, China National Financial Securities, Caitong Securities, Bank of China Securities, Nanjing Securities, and Tianfeng Securities were all transferred out of the CSI 300 Index.
At the end of 2018, a number of securities firms were also removed from important market indices. Within 3 to 4 months after that, securities firms experienced a rebound with an increase of over 50%.
Analysts said that the removal of brokerage stocks from important market indexes has no necessary logical relationship with the subsequent rise.
However, many institutions are still optimistic about the stock market of securities companies. Some institutions are strategically optimistic, and some institutions say that the conditions for the start of the market of securities companies are almost ready.
Major indices call out several brokerage stocks
At the end of May, the official website of CSI released the regular adjustment plan for multiple index samples such as CSI 300, SSE 50, Kechuang 50, SSE 180, and CSI 500.
China Securities Index Co., Ltd. stated that the adjustment is a regular routine adjustment of index samples, and the regular adjustment plan will officially take effect after the market closes on June 10.
In this adjustment, many securities companies were removed from important market indices such as the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180.
For example, 6 stocks, including Changjiang Securities, Guojin Securities, Caitong Securities, Bank of China Securities, Nanjing Securities, and Tianfeng Securities, were removed from the CSI 300 Index this time; There are 4 companies including China Investment Capital, Huaxin, Tianfeng Securities and Hongta Securities.
At the same time, no other brokerage stocks were newly added to the two major indexes this time.
It is understood that some of the brokerage stocks that were removed from the CSI 300 Index this time have existed in the index for many years.
It has been nearly 14 years since Changjiang Securities and China International Finance Securities were included in the CSI 300 Index in 2008.
According to the "CSI 300 Index Compilation Plan" issued by CSI in December last year, the CSI 300 index samples are reviewed every six months, and the index samples are adjusted according to the review results.
The specific review time node is generally in late May and November each year, and the sample adjustment implementation time is the next trading day of the second Friday in June and December each year.
When reviewing the sample in May each year, the reference is mainly based on the transaction data and financial data from May 1 of the previous year to April 30 of the review year (the newly listed securities during the period are since the fourth trading day of listing).
The specific selection method of the CSI 300 Index samples is to rank the securities in the sample space according to the average daily turnover in the past year from high to low, and remove the bottom 50% securities; for the remaining securities in the sample space, according to the past one The annual average daily total market capitalization is ranked from high to low, and the top 300 securities are selected as index samples.
This also shows that the transaction performance and market value changes of the sample stocks in the past year are the decisive factors in determining whether they can remain in the CSI 300 Index.
Wind data shows that from May 1, 2021 to April 30, 2022, the Shenwan Securities Index fell by 14.9%, and during this period, the overall turnover of the Shenwan Securities Index also tended to decline.
The plate rebounded after the last call
At the end of 2018, many brokerage stocks were also removed from important market indexes, and then brokerage stocks ushered in a big rebound.
On December 3, 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. issued an announcement to adjust the index constituent stocks of SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, and SSE Dividend on December 17, 2018.
At that time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index replaced 5 stocks, including Northern Rare Earth, Orient Securities, China Merchants Securities, Zheshang Securities, and China Galaxy, and the last 4 were all securities companies.
It is worth noting that in the index adjustment in May of that year, Haitong Securities was also transferred out of the Shanghai 50 Index.
It is understood that the samples of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index are the sample space, and the 50 most representative securities with large scale and good liquidity in the Shanghai securities market are selected as samples to comprehensively reflect the most influential batch of the Shanghai securities market. Overall performance of leading companies.
The specific sample selection method is to comprehensively rank the securities in the sample space according to the average daily total market value and average daily turnover of the past year, and select the top 50 securities to form the sample.
The Securities Times reporter noticed that on December 3, 2018, the Wind Securities Index was 9806 points. In the next three months or so, the index ushered in a large rebound.
On March 8, 2019, the Wind Securities Index hit a periodical peak of 14,648 points.
In about 3 months, the securities index rose by about 50%.
The latest major market index adjustment also removed some brokerage stocks, but it is not yet known whether the brokerage stocks will rebound as sharply as in early 2019 after the removal.
"The reason for the removal of brokerage stocks is mainly due to poor performance (poor market) and other issues. The recent removal is also due to poor performance, but it does not mean that it will definitely rise in the future. In theory, there is no logic between being removed and rising. relationship.” A non-bank analyst in Beijing told a Securities Times reporter.
Another analyst said that the removal of brokerage stocks shows that there have been more declines before, and opportunities often fall out.
Institutional strategy is bullish on the brokerage sector
Recently, the performance of brokerage stocks has also attracted some attention from the market, and many institutions have conducted research and discussion on this.
Wei Tao and others of West China Securities believe that there are six major conditions for the start of the stock market of securities companies, namely, the macro economy is in the late stage of recession or the early stage of recovery, the macro liquidity is loose or tends to be loose, the state attaches great importance to the capital market, reform promotes the improvement of institutional micro liquidity, and securities companies. The valuation is in a low position, the external environment is stable, etc.
They said that most of the current six conditions have been met.
East Asia Qianhai Securities Ni Hua said that the brokerage sector has reached an inflection point, mainly for four reasons.
First, the national epidemic situation has improved, and market sentiment has recovered; secondly, the capital market has seen frequent positives; thirdly, the fund's net value and share continued to recover in May, and investors' positions were gradually replenished; finally, more than 10 securities companies' stocks have broken net and their valuations have risen. Reached the historical bottom, and the current valuation has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations of the mid-year report.
Kaiyuan Securities said that based on the perspective of historical review, he is optimistic about the current investment opportunities in the securities business sector.
The valuation of the sector is at a low level, the economy is expected to improve and liquidity is abundant, and the second-quarter earnings of securities companies can be expected to improve month-on-month. Follow-up fund data or policy catalysts can be followed.
"At the current point in time, we are strategically bullish on the brokerage sector, especially leading companies with alpha earnings, whose valuations have limited room for downwards, and certain flexibility upwards." The team of Huatai Securities Shen Juan said that the current Chinese economy It is at an important turning point in the transformation of new and old kinetic energy, and is moving towards a high-end model driven by the real economy such as high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries.
At the same time, supervision promotes institutional innovation and reform from top to bottom, and the significant expansion of the capital market is expected to drive the securitization rate to continue to rise. The prosperity of the market ecology will lay a solid foundation for the steady expansion of securities companies’ business, and the securities industry is in a healthy development cycle.
At present, various risk factors are intertwined in the market environment, and the valuation of the brokerage sector has fallen to a relatively low level; while the policy of stabilizing growth continues to exert force, the policy dimensions are constantly loosened, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the future.