Source: Brokerage China Author: Changliu

　　Recently, Argentina set the export reference price of lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate has once again attracted the attention of all parties in the market.

　　As the resumption of work and production in China's domestic industrial chain continued in late May, the price of lithium carbonate rose again.

In the face of rising prices of upstream resource products, domestic new energy industry chain companies have set foot in the upstream. Since the beginning of this year, more than 60 companies have announced investment plans for the lithium battery industry chain.

　　Although the price of raw materials remains high, at the beginning of June, many new energy vehicles have successively announced their sales in May, and many new power car companies have achieved more than double the month-on-month growth.

The superimposed state has increased subsidies for new energy vehicles. Market participants predict that in the second half of this year, new energy vehicles will be expected to accelerate the penetration rate in the sinking market, driving the overall sales to further increase.

　　This news has greatly boosted the capital market's confidence in growth industries such as "lithium optical cores". The performance exceeds expectations and the favorable policies have stimulated the stock market to strengthen again. Lithium batteries, semiconductors, photovoltaics and other high-prosperity sectors are active.

Since the bottom of A-shares on April 27, the Kechuang 50 has the strongest trend, with a cumulative increase of about 27% so far, far outperforming other indexes.

Since the beginning of this year, the Science and Technology Innovation Board has undoubtedly been the most concerned sector for mainland funds. In the first five months of this year, the 50 ETFs on the China AMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board received a cumulative net inflow of 10.826 billion yuan, ranking first among all stock ETFs and the only net inflow exceeding tens of billions of dollars.

Lithium prices climb sharply, Argentine government asks to "keep pace with prices"

　　On June 1, local time, the Argentine Federal Tax Agency announced that after monitoring several illegal shipments in the past two years, Argentine Customs has set a reference price of US$53 per kilogram for lithium carbonate exports, or US$53,000. / ton in order to prevent underquoting of export quotations and improve transparency.

　　It is reported that the reference price system will strengthen the customs' ability to supervise the export of lithium carbonate, avoid issuing low-priced invoices, and will help the Afghan side avoid taxation and manipulation of the US dollar sold to the central bank.

According to the data, Argentina is one of the main producers of lithium carbonate in the world, and the export volume of lithium carbonate in 2021 will exceed 27,200 tons.

　　Data shows that at the end of 2020, the price of lithium carbonate was about 50,000 yuan / ton, and with the surge in sales of new energy vehicles in 2021, lithium carbonate once exceeded 500,000 yuan / ton in March this year.

According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen twice in the latest five trading days, with a cumulative increase of RMB 2,000 per ton.

At present, the price of lithium carbonate is quoted at RMB 463,500/ton.

In the past year or so, the price of lithium has risen rapidly, and the internal settlement price set according to the traditional model will appear too low. For the South American government, the collection of various taxes cannot be "advanced with the times".

　　Guotai Junan analyst Yu Jiayi believes that Argentina's move is to prevent the Argentine government from paying less taxes due to the obvious decoupling of internal settlement prices and real market prices.

If the lithium market is in a downturn in the future and the market price of lithium is lower than US$53,000/ton for too long and the length of time is too large, the regulations should be revised.

On the other hand, the preset bottom line of lithium export price is US$53,000/ton, which roughly corresponds to a price of nearly 400,000 yuan/ton including tax, which just shows the Argentine government’s expectation and confidence in the long-term sustainability of high lithium prices.

The expansion of the new energy sector has accelerated, and domestic mid- and downstream enterprises have set foot in the upstream

　　With the global sales of new energy vehicles hitting new highs, the status of lithium as a strategic resource has become increasingly prominent.

Since 2022, China's new energy vehicle market has experienced three relatively obvious price hikes. More and more new energy battery and car companies have begun to control lithium resources, including acquiring lithium mines, seeking strategic partners, and signing long-term contracts. The agreement locks in supply and deploys a lithium battery recycling system.

　　Due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the profits of the industrial chain are gradually concentrated in the upstream resources, and the net profit of lithium mineral resource enterprises has achieved a year-on-year increase of nearly 10 times.

Chilean lithium mine SQM, whose lithium sales account for 23% of the world's lithium sales, showed its operating results in the first quarter of this year that its lithium business revenue reached US$1.4464 billion, up 969.5% year-on-year; the company's net profit attributable to its parent was US$796.1 million, compared with 68 million in the same period last year. A substantial increase of 1070.74%.

　　Faced with this situation, domestic new energy industry chain companies have set foot in the upstream.

Since the beginning of this year, more than 60 companies have announced investment plans for the lithium battery industry chain.

Recently, BYD also reported that it has found 6 lithium mines in Africa, and all of them have reached the acquisition intention.

According to estimates, among the six lithium mines, the amount of ore with a grade of 2.5% lithium oxide has reached more than 25 million tons, which can be converted into 1 million tons of lithium carbonate.

In addition to BYD, leading power battery companies such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda are also accelerating their deployment in the field of lithium resources, which is expected to hedge against potential price increases in upstream lithium resources.

　　Domestic upstream enterprises have also accelerated the expansion of lithium resources, and began to play the role of stabilizing the sea.

This week, China Mining Resources and Salt Lake Co., Ltd. announced plans to expand production.

Among them, China Mining Resources plans to raise no more than 3 billion yuan, which will be used for reconstruction and expansion projects in many places; and Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to invest in a new 40,000-ton/year basic lithium-salt integration project, including 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, 20,000 tons of lithium chloride, with a total investment of about 7.08 billion yuan.

Science and Technology 50 will become the main battlefield of the structural bull market

　　At the beginning of June, many new energy vehicles announced their sales in May, and many new forces have more than doubled the month-on-month growth.

The superimposed state has increased subsidies for new energy vehicles. The market expects that new energy vehicles will be expected to accelerate the penetration rate in the sinking market, driving the overall sales to further increase.

　　This news greatly boosted the capital market's confidence in growth industries such as "lithium optical cores". The performance exceeded expectations and the favorable policies stimulated the stock market to strengthen again. Lithium batteries, semiconductors, photovoltaics and other high-prosperity sectors were active.

The market value of Ningde era has returned to the trillion mark; the largest overseas Chinese stock fund, the Allianz Shenzhou A-share fund, a product of German asset management giant Allianz Investment, has a scale of 7.759 billion euros, and it has been exposed to the Ningde era.

　　On June 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.21%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 4.68%.

In terms of sectors, sectors related to the automotive industry chain continued to be strong, with vehicle and auto parts stocks among the top gainers, and new shares of science and technology innovation continued to be active.

On that day, the daily turnover of the Science and Technology Innovation Board exceeded 65 billion yuan, a new high since the beginning of this year. With the addition of multiple MSCI index sample adjustments, northbound funds added 1.062 billion yuan to the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which is the largest single-day inflow since the opening in February 2021.

　　In terms of capital inflows, the Science and Technology Innovation Board has undoubtedly been the most concerned direction for mainland funds this year.

Data show that in the first five months of this year, the 50 ETFs on the China AMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board received a cumulative net inflow of 10.826 billion yuan, ranking first among all stock ETFs and the only variety with a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan.

Since the bottom of A shares on April 27, the Kechuang 50 has the strongest trend, with a cumulative increase of about 27% so far, far outperforming other indexes.

　　Market participants believe that individual stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board are mainly concentrated in high-end manufacturing, high-tech, specialized and new fields such as new energy and semiconductors. .

　　Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of CITIC Construction Investment, said there are similarities between this year's STAR Market and the 2012 ChiNext.

From the perspective of valuation level, both of them have undergone deep adjustment in the early stage, and the valuation has dropped to a historical low.

Moreover, from the perspective of the economic environment, both are in the destocking cycle, and the “stabilizing economy” in 2012 is similar to this year’s “stabilizing growth”.

　　Chen Guo said that judging from the performance of each sector in the first quarter of this year, the Sci-tech Innovation Board has the strongest profitability, with revenue and net profit increasing year-on-year and continuing to rise compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Moreover, compared with other sectors, the STAR Market is less disturbed by upstream price increases.

"In the medium term, the index will focus strategically on the Science and Technology Innovation Board."

　　Wang Yang, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, believes that at present, the Science and Technology Innovation Board has entered the early stage of the bull market, and Xiaohe is beginning to show its sharp horns.

First, its industrial distribution mirrors the current rise of advanced manufacturing, represented by semiconductors, new energy, cloud computing, national defense and medicine; second, the rapid growth of profits, combined with Wind’s consensus profit forecast in 22 and 23 years, will exceed 30% At the same time, the valuation has bottomed out, and the current PE-TTM is close to the level of the GEM in 2012; three, the fund allocation is relatively low. In the first quarter of this year, the science and technology board accounted for about 5% of the fund allocation.

"We believe that the core feature of the next market is that a new round of star stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will quietly start to rise in an orderly manner, which is the main battlefield of the future structural bull market."