Source: Broker China Author: Yun Zhonglan
Recently, a number of brokerages have successively released their strategic outlooks for the second half or mid-term of 2022.
The reporter combed and found that some brokerages were slightly cautious, while others were relatively optimistic.
CICC said that the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges in the second half of the year, and the upside needs more positive catalyst support.
Investors are advised to seek "stable" first, and then wait for an opportunity to "advance".
CITIC Construction Investment believes that it is expected that after a new round of policy overweight, the market is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will lead.
In terms of specific configuration, some brokerages said that midstream manufacturing is the first choice, and necessary consumption is the second best.
In the subdivided varieties, combined with the bottom-up logic, the midstream manufacturing considers machinery, electronics, automobiles, electrical new, and military industries.
There are also brokerages who believe that they can focus on photovoltaics, new energy vehicle industry chains, food and beverage, coal, and brokerages.
In terms of themes, it focuses on the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Current valuations are historically low
CICC's strategic view of A shares in the second half of the year is to "stabilize" and then "advance".
CICC believes that the market environment so far in 2022 has been more challenging than expected at the beginning of the year.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, overseas transactions will transition from "stagflation" to "how to get out of stagflation", and China is striving for "steady growth" in the prevention and control of the epidemic.
The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is at a low level in the historical range, with a mid-line value.
In the second half of the year, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges, and the upside needs more positive catalyst support.
Investors are advised to seek "stable" first, and then wait for an opportunity to "advance".
The core key word of Dongxing Securities' strategic outlook for the second half of the year is "planning to move later, knowing what to do and what to do".
Dongxing Securities said that there is not much room for upward valuations.
At present, the valuation level of major sectors is close to the level in 2019 and early 2020, and there is not much difference from the median value of 2019 so far, and the overall macro environment is completely different.
The beginning of 2019 is the overall improvement of economic and financial data, 2020 is the global easing policy environment, and 2021 is the post-pandemic recovery of global demand expansion.
Dongxing Securities suggested that we should focus on three changes in the second half of the year.
The first is that the upstream price increase pressure may ease, and profits will be redistributed from the upstream to the middle and downstream.
The second is to further strengthen the policy of stabilizing growth. When the credit liberalization takes effect, it is the key to the stock market's rebound to reversal. It can be observed whether the "social financing growth rate - GDP growth rate" indicator has rebounded.
Finally, with the epidemic under control, the recovery of the production chain after the epidemic will be faster than the demand side, and the manufacturing industry will usher in a turnaround under the advancement of resumption of work and production.
CITIC Construction Investment's strategy in the second half of the year is to deploy at a low position and lead the growth.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that China's economy will bid farewell to the old real estate cycle, new momentum is still accumulating strength, and the economy will undergo a stage of adjustment and derailment.
In the medium term, A shares will look like the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2014: the total growth rate is weak, the liquidity is abundant and constantly improving, the growth style is dominant, and the small and medium-cap style is dominant.
The strongest main line of the market will be the direction supported by sustained growth expectations in small and medium-sized caps - "small and medium-sized caps in prosperity".
The strategy team of CITIC Construction Investment said that after the short-term A-share market rebounded in the "golden pit", it still faces a series of fundamental challenges. Investors need to remain patient and wait for bargaining.
It is expected that after a new round of policy overweight, the market is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will lead.
The key word of the mid-term strategy of Huatai Securities' strategy team is "step up, midstream manufacturing".
Huatai Securities said that the general trend of A shares in the second half of the year is not pessimistic.
The environment of internal stagnation and external inflation is the macro-combination with the greatest pressure on manufacturing countries, and the risk premium top built by it has already appeared at the end of April. Looking at the end of the year, A shares are expected to usher in three stages of rising and rising. The first stage (from May to mid-May) Report season), the shock rebounded to the shock level before the Shanghai epidemic.
In the second stage (interim report season to October), the performance inflection point appeared, entering a reversal of the market, and the third stage (after October) released the market elasticity.
Midstream manufacturing is the first choice, and essential consumption is the second best
From the perspective of specific configuration, Huatai Securities recommends grasping the major marginal changes after the second quarter and the degree of existing logical transactions.
The pressure on the U.S. bond discount rate has peaked, the profit distribution pressure on the industrial chain has peaked, the current industrial cycle, inflation structure, and real estate easing implied expectations of stock prices are not high. Therefore, midstream manufacturing is the first choice, and essential consumption is second-best.
In the subdivided varieties, combined with the bottom-up logic, the midstream manufacturing considers machinery, electronics, automobiles, electrical new, and military industries.
CICC said that it will continue to focus on "steady growth".
In the first half of the year, the strategy of focusing on "steady growth" and relatively low matching with high valuation growth has achieved relatively good relative returns. Currently, it continues to focus on "steady growth". It is recommended to focus on three directions.
First, some areas related to "steady growth" or with policy support: infrastructure (traditional infrastructure and some new infrastructure), building materials, automobiles, and housing-related industries that have policy expectations or actual policy support.
Secondly, areas with low valuation and relatively low correlation with macro volatility, especially some high dividend areas: such as infrastructure, power and utilities, hydropower, etc.
Third, the fundamentals may bottom out, or supply may be limited, or some areas where the degree of prosperity continues to improve: agriculture, some non-ferrous metals and some chemical sub-sectors, coal, photovoltaics and military industries, etc.
For the time being, it is still standard or underweight growth sectors with high valuations, high expectations and high positions.
CICC said that considering the relatively low market valuation, China's policies are continuing to exert efforts to stabilize growth, and the market is sensitive to policy effects, the specific timing of the switch between "defense" and "offensive" should pay close attention to the strength and potential effects of stabilizing growth policies. .
Dongxing Securities said that the valuation expansion space is limited, waiting for the inflection point of profit, and giving a higher allocation weight to profit expectations in the second half of the year.
The most severe period of the impact of the epidemic and upstream cost pressure was in the first half of the year, which has been reflected in the current market pricing.
In addition, it is noted that the profit expectations of more than half of the industries have been significantly lowered compared with the beginning of the year, and the industries in the direction of "steady growth" have shown significant improvement.
Steady growth and post-epidemic recovery will be the main theme of the configuration.
Pay attention to the old infrastructure that has actually improved in order volume, the new infrastructure that needs to resonate with the boom, and the automobiles and construction machinery related to the resumption of work and production.
CITIC Construction Investment suggested that in terms of industries, we can focus on military industry, photovoltaics, new energy vehicle industry chains, automobiles, food and beverages, coal, securities companies, etc.
In terms of themes, it focuses on the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.