Sino-Singapore Jingwei, June 2 (Wang Lei) On June 1, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed a package of policy measures to speed up the stabilization of the economy, and to support the construction of financial infrastructure, it was proposed to increase the credit line of policy banks by 800 billion yuan, and establish Key project list docking mechanism.

Lian Ping, chief economist and director of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, said in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Research Institute that infrastructure is one of the main areas of long-term support for policy finance. Although the scale of 800 billion yuan is small, the marginal effect is obvious.

The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second and third quarters may further accelerate

　　On April 26, the 11th meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee emphasized that comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction and building a modern infrastructure system will lay a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way.

It is proposed to strengthen the construction of network-based infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, to strengthen the construction of industrial upgrading infrastructure such as information, technology, and logistics, to strengthen the construction of urban infrastructure, and to strengthen the construction of agricultural and rural infrastructure, as well as to strengthen the construction of national security infrastructure, etc. .

　　In order to support infrastructure investment, on May 31, the State Council issued the "Package of Policy Measures to Consolidate and Stabilize the Economy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Package of Policies"), requiring fiscal policy to speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds and expand the scope of support. The issuance and use of the 3.45 trillion yuan special bonds issued will be basically completed by the end of June, and strive to be basically completed by the end of August.

On the basis of the 9 major areas identified in the early stage, including transportation infrastructure, energy, and affordable housing projects, the special bond support areas will be appropriately expanded, and new infrastructure and new energy projects will be included in the scope of support.

　　The "Package Policy" also requires that financial institutions should increase their support for infrastructure construction and major projects. Among them, policy development banks should optimize the loan structure and issue more loans with longer terms.

In addition, it is also proposed to guide commercial banks to further increase loan issuance and extend loan terms; encourage insurance companies to give full play to their long-term capital advantages, and increase support for infrastructure construction and major projects such as water conservancy, water transportation, highways, and logistics.

　　Mingming, co-chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that Wind data showed that as of the end of May, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments was 2.03 trillion yuan. The new issuance of special bonds in a single month will be around 1.4 trillion yuan.

The increase in funds brought about by the issuance of huge amounts of special bonds will play a better role in alleviating the decline in the income of government funds in the second and third quarters.

At the same time, innovative tools such as infrastructure REITs and public-private partnership (PPP) are expected to revitalize the stock and provide incremental funds for infrastructure investment.

　　On May 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Revitalizing Existing Assets and Expanding Effective Investment", encouraging more eligible infrastructure REITs projects to be issued and listed, and existing projects with long-term and stable operating income to use the PPP model to revitalize the stock. assets.

　　"Like publicly offered REITs, the PPP model helps to revitalize the existing infrastructure investment, and then contributes funds for local governments to invest in new infrastructure projects. However, in view of some problems in the implementation of PPP projects, the policy constraints faced by the participation of central and state-owned enterprises, and the role of private enterprises The enthusiasm of the social capital side is weak, and the PPP model to better support infrastructure investment still needs to improve policies, strengthen guidance, and it also takes time.” said Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities.

　　"Under the expectation that infrastructure support policies will continue to strengthen, the growth rate of infrastructure investment may further accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, with a peak of around 15%, and the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach 10%." Mingming said, Judging from the investment of special bonds in the first half of this year, the investment flexibility in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial parks is relatively large, but the counter-cyclical nature of old infrastructure is stronger, and it may not be sustainable after the pressure of stable growth.

New energy and new digital infrastructure have strong strategic significance, fit into many directions of the package of measures, and have better long-term prospects.

The good momentum of infrastructure investment also depends on local financial resources, etc.

　　Lian Ping believes that this year's total financial investment is relatively large, with about 3 trillion yuan of special debt leveraging more than three times the social capital to invest in infrastructure.

However, to maintain a good momentum of infrastructure growth in the future, it will depend more on whether social funds can quickly follow up in the second half of the year, as well as the financial situation of local governments.

　　"At present, the financial resources of local governments are constrained by two aspects. First, land auctions. From January to April this year, the land auction situation should be said to be relatively difficult. The auction revenue has decreased by about 30% compared with last year. The issuance of investment bonds does not seem to be ideal at present." Lian Ping said, "In the next stage, more policies are needed to promote the further recovery of the urban investment bond and land auction markets. If these two markets can recover steadily after the third quarter, the local The government's financial resources will continue to improve in the second half of the year, and with special bond issuance, central finance and a series of other financial support, infrastructure construction will maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year."

　　Zhong Zhengsheng also said that previous data showed that the primary land market is still sluggish, and if the growth rate of land transfer fees continues to decline in the short term, it will drag down his support for infrastructure investment.

In the future, we should pay attention to whether the supervision of local government implicit debt will be moderately loosened.

Although infrastructure investment is dominated by the government, funds that really come from the government (including the part of special bonds invested in infrastructure) have long accounted for less than 20%, and the other 80% of the supporting funds are mainly raised by financing platforms and project companies.

　　"In the medium and long term, infrastructure investment will play a more important role on both sides of supply and demand. Previously, the policy setting of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction will boost the market's confidence in stable growth." Zhong Zhengsheng said, but at present, funds It is also expected to be a key constraint on the rebound of infrastructure construction. It is necessary to pay attention to how the follow-up policies are refined and implemented. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether the return on investment in infrastructure needs to be calculated in a comprehensive account, whether it can break through the core requirement of self-balancing of income from special debt supervision, and local governments. Whether the regulation of implicit debt will be moderately loosened.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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