The European Union's sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which was decided this Friday, could hurt Moscow even less than expected.
While the transport of Russian oil through pipelines to the West is to remain permitted anyway, there are now doubts as to whether the EU's target for transport by ship can be effectively prevented with the announced sanctions.
In detail, it is about the so-called reinsurance ban, which is intended to prevent Russian oil from being shipped to China, India and other countries by tanker.
Experts expressed the suspicion to the FAZ that Russia can circumvent the reinsurance ban relatively easily and in six months, when the sanctions are supposed to take effect, will be able to transport the raw material without any problems.
The western insurance markets would consistently implement the sanctions, said Jan Blumenthal, Germany head of the insurance market Lloyd's.
But what cannot be prevented: “If other political systems have a different will and reinsurers from there cannot shoulder it alone, they can be supported by state cover.
So ways can be found to circumvent the sanction.”
In order to prevent exactly that, the European Commission originally wanted to put a double stop to Russian oil exports: Firstly, tankers flying the flag of an EU member or operated by a shipowner based in the EU should not carry Russian crude oil and none refinery products are no longer allowed to transport.
Secondly, it should no longer be possible to insure oil tankers in the EU against environmental catastrophes and other damage.
This makes the ships used to transport oil effectively worthless, because the costs of an oil spill can quickly reach billions.
Before long, however, the three EU Member States with the largest shipping fleets, Greece, Cyprus and also Malta, raised concerns.
Without close international coordination, a cargo ban makes no sense, they argued.
Cyprus and Greece had already watered down the ban on Russian ships in EU ports in the fifth sanctions package.
The French Council Presidency and the European Commission reacted quickly and removed the cargo ban.
The EU summit was therefore only about the reinsurance ban.
Although neither the European Commission nor diplomats want to speak of "only".
"The reinsurance ban ultimately has the same effect as the cargo ban," says the commission.
"It's political, but it's easier for governments to sell," adds a diplomat.
The decisive factor in the fact that Greece and Cyprus finally accepted the reinsurance ban was that the United Kingdom had also joined the ban and that there were largely the same conditions for everyone.
Ultimately, this also affects the world's leading insurance exchange, Lloyd's, which reinsures a significant proportion of the goods shipped worldwide.
London is where the vast majority of oil tanker shipments are insured.
How effective the reinsurance ban is depends on whether Russia finds alternatives elsewhere.
India declared weeks ago that it would buy Russian oil at discount prices, including transport insurance.
Russia has already increased the capacities of its state reinsurer in recent weeks.
It is questionable how far these capacities will go.
Oil expert Adi Imsirovic of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies says Russia and other countries could take on some of the insurance for the shipments themselves.
But the "sheer magnitude of the financial risks" could easily overwhelm Russia and its partners.
That's why he considers the ban on insurance for Russian oil shipments to be "a great achievement".
Leigh Hansson, sanctions specialist at law firm Reed Smith, says,
the effect is "not to be overestimated".
Jan-Oliver Thofern, head of the German reinsurance business at the international broker Aon, is more skeptical.
So far, only reinsurers have been mentioned, but the ban must also apply to primary insurers.
"The consequences cannot yet be assessed," he told the FAZ
The EU sanctions could also be circumvented in another way: If Russian oil is mixed with a larger amount of other oil, Russia no longer has to be specified as the country of origin.
In this way, Iran circumvented the sanctions against its oil exports.
Russian oil is mostly shipped to Greek ports, where it is already partly mixed and loaded on the water between different tankers for further export.
The Greek industry association did not want to comment on the question of whether such transports would still be possible in the future under changed insurance conditions.
When asked, a spokesman for the Greek Foreign Ministry said: “The Russians will always find ways to sell their oil outside the EU.
We must pay attention,
Authors: Hendrik Kafsack, Philipp Krohn, Philip Plickert, Johannes Pennekamp, Christian Schubert and Katharina Wagner