Author: Zhang Huimin
After a round of policy loosening, the property market finally showed some warmth at the bottom.
The latest data released by the Shell Research Institute shows that in May, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the 50 cities it monitored increased by about 14% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.
In terms of cities, more than 80% of the 50 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the second-hand housing transaction volume. Among them, the second-hand housing transaction volume in key cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast regions rebounded faster month-on-month, such as Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin and Suzhou, Wuxi, Xuzhou and other cities. The chain volume growth rate exceeded 100%.
The second-hand housing market in these cities was hit hard by the epidemic in April and ran at a low level. In May, it was restored as the epidemic gradually eased and the easing policy played a role.
Compared with last year, in the 50 cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute in May, the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction volume narrowed, and the transaction volume fell by about 40% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 8 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition to the transaction volume, the activity of customers to view houses has also increased. In May, the number of second-hand housing inspection customers in 50 cities increased by 8% month-on-month. Among them, Changchun, Shanghai, Harbin, Shenyang and other cities saw a larger increase in the number of new inspections.
The Shell Research Institute pointed out that in May, market expectations began to show a marginal change, and the second-hand housing climate index representing market expectations rose from 18 in the previous month to the critical line of 20.
In terms of cities, Dongguan, Jinan, Foshan, Wuxi and Jiaxing are expected to recover faster.
At the same time, the number of new listings for second-hand housing has also increased significantly.
In May, the number of new listings for second-hand housing in 50 cities increased by 12% month-on-month. Among them, Dongguan increased by about 30% month-on-month, Suzhou's new listings more than doubled in April, and Nanjing and Xuzhou increased by more than 50% month-on-month.
The recovery of the second-hand housing market is not unrelated to a series of policy loosening.
Since the beginning of this year, many cities across the country have relaxed policies such as purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and loan restrictions. According to incomplete statistics from the Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, as of May 26, 2022, the frequency of policy optimization nationwide has exceeded 210 this year, covering There are more than 120 cities, and there are 93 adjustments in a single month in May.
In May, the central government not only repeatedly shouted to support the reasonable housing demand in the real estate market, but also issued credit policy support.
On May 15, the central bank’s differentiated credit policy allowed the interest rate of first home buyers in various regions to drop by 20 basis points. On May 20, LPR dropped by 15 basis points, and the mortgage interest rate in various regions could be reduced to 4.25%, a record low.
The adjustment of the credit policy has lowered the cost of home purchases for home buyers.
It is worth noting that despite the increase in transaction volume, house prices are still in a downward trend.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing price index in Shell 50 cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Housing prices in cities such as Dongguan, Suzhou, Taiyuan and Changsha rose slightly, while housing prices in cities such as Fuzhou, Xuzhou and Harbin were still falling.
Regarding the data of second-hand housing in May, the Shell Research Institute concluded that the market is still at the bottom, and the transaction volume has recovered. The implementation of the relief policy is accelerated, and it is expected that the second-hand housing market will enter a stage of increasing volume and stabilizing prices in the second half of the year.
In addition to the increase in second-hand housing transactions, the transaction volume of the new housing market is also rising slightly.
According to data from Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, as of May 26, 40,528 new houses were sold in 9 key cities under its monitoring, a month-on-month increase of 2.7%.
In terms of different cities, the sales volume of new houses in Suzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Foshan, and Hangzhou stopped falling and turned up month-on-month.
Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that in May, the market showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding, releasing positive signals. The easing effect of the policy has been realized. Next, with the improvement of the national epidemic and the support of the policy, the market will continue to Back to steady.