“I don't believe in a risk of recession.
On France Inter, the Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire showed an optimistic and resolute face when discussing the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
In the first quarter, the French gross domestic product thus fell by 0.2%, and inflation, which exceeded 5% over one year in May, is slowing down household consumption, the main driver of French growth.
But for now, the French government's growth forecast is still 4%.
And even if this strong figure could be revised during the presentation of the draft amending budget, it leaves room for a recession.
Several institutions have already lowered their forecast several times.
The IMF is now counting on growth of 2.9% for France, the European Commission on 3.1%, while the Banque de France forecasts between 2.8% and 3.4%, depending on the evolution of energy price.
Concerns are also growing in other major economies, particularly in the United States, where GDP contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter, and in China, where the Covid epidemic is penalizing activity.
Bruno Le Maire admits to remaining "very cautious because everything will depend on what can happen in Ukraine, on developments in a certain number of other countries, in particular China".
Economy
Inflation: New record broken in the euro zone in May, with 8.1% over one year
Economy
Inflation: Bruno Le Maire believes that France should come out of the peak "end of 2023"
Economy
Growth
Recession
Bruno the Mayor
War in Ukraine
IMF