The Paper reporter Hou Jiacheng

　　China's manufacturing PMI has been below the threshold of prosperity and decline for three consecutive months, but there was a significant rebound in May compared to April.

　　On May 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May was 49.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.8%, higher than 5.9 in the previous month. The composite PMI output index in May was 48.4%, 5.7 percentage points higher than the previous month; the three major indexes were all below the critical point, but rebounded significantly from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation level of enterprises has recovered.

　　PMI is one of the leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends. It is an index compiled and compiled through the monthly survey results of corporate purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of corporate procurement, production, and circulation, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing. industry field.

　　Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that factors such as the recent epidemic situation and changes in the international situation have had a major impact on economic operations. Improved in April.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that in late May, a national teleconference on stabilizing the economic market was held, and the macro policy was further strengthened, and the effect was obvious.

Manufacturing PMI rebounds, production and demand recover

　　In May, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the contraction rate of economic activities narrowed.

　　Zhao Qinghe said that in May, the resumption of work and production in areas affected by the epidemic gradually advanced; among the 21 industries surveyed, the industries with PMI in the expansion range increased from 9 in the previous month to 12, and the manufacturing industry has shown positive changes. .

　　Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told The Paper that since late April, the domestic epidemic has gradually been brought under control, and domestic measures to help enterprises have been promptly introduced to clear logistics congestion, smooth the supply chain and industrial chain, and increase support for distressed enterprises. efforts to strongly support the resumption of work and production by enterprises.

　　From the perspective of the composition of the manufacturing PMI index, the five major components all rebounded from the previous month.

Among them, the production index and the new order index were 49.7% and 48.2% respectively, up 5.3 and 5.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing production and demand have recovered to varying degrees, but the recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened.

　　Among other related indicators of the manufacturing PMI, the new export orders index rose by 4.6 percentage points from the previous month to 46.2%, and the finished goods inventory index fell by 1 percentage point to 49.3%.

In May, the manufacturing price index continued to fall. The purchasing price index for major raw materials was 55.8 percent, 8.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. The increase in purchasing prices for manufacturing raw materials narrowed, but was still at a relatively high level.

　　Zhou Maohua said that in addition to the rapid recovery of manufacturing production, new orders and new export orders in the manufacturing industry have picked up simultaneously; the decline in inventories reflects that the domestic demand side is also recovering rapidly.

In April and May, the increase in the purchase price of raw materials for enterprises continued to narrow, and the enterprises increased the efforts to replenish the inventory of raw materials, and the market confidence rebounded significantly.

　　From the perspective of the industry, the purchase price index of major raw materials in petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, pharmaceuticals and other industries continued to be at a high level of more than 60.0%, and the pressure on raw material procurement costs for enterprises was still relatively large.

　　The ex-factory price index in May was 49.5%, 4.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, and fell to the contraction range for the first time this year, indicating that the overall level of sales prices of manufacturing products has fallen.

　　In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.0%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to above the threshold; the PMIs of medium and small enterprises were 49.4% and 46.7%, respectively, an increase of 1.9 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. below the critical point.

　　Zhao Qinghe said that a series of policies recently introduced to open up logistics and industrial upstream and downstream connection blocking points have shown some results. In May, the proportion of enterprises reporting poor logistics and transportation decreased by 8.0 percentage points from the previous month, but it is still necessary to continue to ensure logistics. Ensure smooth work and ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.

　　Zhou Maohua said that in May, the production and operation expectations index of large, medium and small enterprises continued to be above the 50 boom line, indicating that the company's future business prospects are optimistic.

From the perspective of external demand, the manufacturing PMI index of economies such as Europe and the United States dropped slightly, but continued to operate in a relatively high boom range. The expansion of overseas demand continued to benefit China's industrial manufacturing industry.

The non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded significantly

　　In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.8%, 5.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the non-manufacturing business activity level improved significantly.

　　In view of different industries, the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

The service industry business activity index was 47.1 percent, up 7.1 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Zhao Qinghe said that from the perspective of the industry, 17 of the 21 industries surveyed have business activity indexes higher than the previous month, of which retail, railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, currency and financial services and other industries are located in the industry. In the expansion range, the total business volume increased month-on-month; the business activity index of industries such as accommodation, leasing and business services continued to be at a low level below 40.0%, and the market activity continued to be low.

　　From the perspective of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index was 55.2%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, and rose to a relatively high boom range, indicating that with the gradual and effective control of the epidemic, various policies such as stabilizing growth, stabilizing market entities, and ensuring employment The measures have been continuously implemented and detailed, and the confidence of service industry enterprises has been enhanced.

　　In terms of the prosperity of the construction industry, the business activity index and new order index of the civil engineering and construction industry were 62.7% and 59.1%, respectively, 1.7 and 6.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, and both continued to rise from the high base level of the previous month, indicating that the recent Infrastructure construction continued to advance, providing strong support for stable growth.

　　Zhou Maohua said that in May, the domestic manufacturing and service industry activities were still in the contraction area, the problem of unbalanced industry recovery was still prominent, and the recovery of some service industries and small and medium-sized enterprises was relatively lagging behind.

Domestically, it is necessary to implement the detailed bailout policies for enterprises, moderately increase effective investment, increase protection for the poor and low-income groups, smooth the domestic demand cycle, and accelerate the return of the economy to the right track.

　　Wen Bin said that recent macro policies have increased support for stable growth, and this month's manufacturing PMI index and non-manufacturing business activity index have both improved from the previous month.

However, some indexes are still in the contraction range, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery has yet to be strengthened.

　　Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council determined a package of 33 policies and measures to stabilize the economy in 6 areas. The national video and teleconference on stabilizing the economy requires that operational implementation rules should be issued before the end of May, and that they should be published.

　　Wen Bin said that the macro policy has further strengthened, and the monetary policy has played the dual functions of total volume and structure. While increasing the intensity of credit supply, the LPR of more than 5 years this month has dropped by 15BP, the highest in history; the national financial support has stabilized the economic market. The working video conference was held a few days ago to accelerate efforts in tax rebates, expenditures, and special bonds.

As these policies take effect and more policies to stabilize growth are implemented, China's economy is expected to bottom out and rebound.