• Direct All the last hour of the war in Ukraine

  • Political agreement The EU agrees to the embargo on Russian oil this year, but only partially and with exemptions

A hypothetical total closure of trade relations between Russia and the EU due to the invasion of Ukraine would have an impact on the Spanish economy of a drop of 1.8% of GDP, according to an article published by the Bank of Spain.

If the conflict reduced its scope to the suspension of Russian energy imports, the damage to the Spanish economy would be a drop in GDP of between 0.8% and 1.4%, and an increase in inflation of between 0.8 points and 1.2 percentage points throughout the first year compared to a scenario without such restrictions.

With a cut in the Russian supply, the branches of the Spanish economy that would suffer a more pronounced drop in their production would be some of those that consume more energy intensively, such as transport, heavy manufacturing or the chemical industry.

At the other extreme would be some service branches, such as real estate, whose activity would hardly be affected.

For the author of the article, Javier Quintana, from the Deputy General Directorate of Economy and Research of the Bank of Spain, the intensity of the impact of a cut in the Russian energy supply would be heterogeneous among the countries of the European Union (EU) depending on their energy dependence of that country.

If for Spain a hypothetical interruption of energy imports from Russia would have an impact on GDP of between 0.8% and 1.4% throughout the first year, depending on the assumption that is considered regarding the capacity of the European economies to replace Russian energy sources, in the case of other European economies, the blow would be between 1.9% and 3.4% for Germany, 1.2% and 2% for France, and a 2.3% and 3.9% for Italy.

The impact on the EU as a whole would be between 2.5% and 4.2% of GDP.

A hypothetical cessation of the rest of the trade flows with Russia would have an additional negative effect on the European economies, although its magnitude would be substantially less than that of the suspension of imports of energy raw materials.

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