Sino-Singapore Jingwei, May 30 (Dong Wenbo) At 24:00 on May 30, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.
According to the forecasts of many institutions, the retail price of refined oil will usher in the ninth increase this year.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
During this round of pricing cycle, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, the impact of EU sanctions on Russia continued, and some countries still planned to stop importing Russian oil by the end of this year; at the same time, Russia also announced sanctions on some European energy companies, and the market was worried about tightening supply.
In addition, the epidemic in Asia has gradually eased, the outlook for oil demand has improved, and as the peak summer demand season is approaching, the demand for auto fuel is rising and inventories are falling, highlighting the fundamentals of tight supply; coupled with OPEC’s insistence on moderately increasing supply and other factors, the international Oil prices remained high to gain support.
However, some negative factors have limited the upside of oil prices. Among them, the fear of economic recession has restrained oil prices; the spread of monkeypox virus has also increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, causing oil prices to be under pressure.
Data show that as of May 27 (Friday), Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures closed at $115.07 per barrel, an increase of 0.86%; Brent crude oil closed at $119.43 per barrel, an increase of 1.73%.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day of May 27, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$112.20 per barrel, with a rate of change of 4.60%. The ninth increase in refined oil products this year will be realized as scheduled. The rate of increase may be around 380 yuan/ton.
Converted to liters, the current oil price is expected to increase by 0.28-0.32 yuan / liter.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei's sorting out, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustment, with gasoline prices increasing by 1,930 yuan/ton, and diesel prices by 1,855 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "eight ups, one down and zero stranded".
After this round of price adjustment is realized, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil will be in a pattern of "nine rises, one fall and zero stranded". The cumulative increase of gasoline and diesel will exceed 2,000 yuan / ton, and the travel cost of car owners will increase significantly.
At present, 92# gasoline in most parts of the country is about 8.6-8.8 yuan / liter. If the current round of oil price increase ends up exceeding 0.3 yuan / liter, 92# gasoline in some areas is expected to directly enter the "9 yuan era".
From the perspective of wholesale, Jinlianchuang believes that fundamentals still dominate, and prices are pushed up cautiously.
In terms of resource supply and demand, local refineries and main resumption refineries have increased, and the operating rate has shown an upward trend. Domestic resource supply has increased. However, as some sea areas have entered the fishing moratorium one after another, despite the increase in summer harvest and summer planting of diesel and agricultural oil, the overall demand It is not easy to upgrade.
Gasoline is also intertwined. As the temperature rises, the oil used for vehicle air conditioners increases, but the epidemic situation and high oil prices still restrict private car travel; in addition, the main business in the first and second half of the year focuses on actively rushing out shipments, pushing up prices. more cautious.
For the market outlook, Zhuo Chuang Information analysis said that international crude oil continues to fluctuate within a range, and the news lacks guidance, but the cost side is at a high level, the market downside risk is small, and the gasoline and diesel trends are mainly volatile, but the fundamental fluctuations are limited.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that considering that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is at a low level in recent years, the summer travel peak in the United States is approaching, and the energy game between Europe, the United States and Russia still faces uncertainty on the crude oil supply side, oil prices are expected to remain high.
Jinlianchuang oil analyst Wang Shan also believes that in June, the peak season of global crude oil consumption is coming, and crude oil prices will remain high; , the gasoline terminal also has a steady upward trend.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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