China News Agency, Beijing, May 27th: The first quarter GDP announcement, who is the winner of the six major economies in Southeast Asia?

　　China News Agency reporter Liu Liang

　　Recently, major economies in Southeast Asia have successively disclosed their first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

Against the backdrop of the global pandemic, geopolitical uncertainty, commodity prices and inflation, how are the six major economies in Southeast Asia doing?

　　Economic growth in three echelons

　　According to the 2020 ranking of the total GDP data in Southeast Asia according to the World Bank, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam are the top six major economies in Southeast Asia.

The performance of these major economies can be regarded as a "barometer" for the region's economy.

　　Judging from the recently disclosed economic data for the first quarter, the economic conditions of various economies are generally good.

　　In terms of countries, the GDP growth of the Philippines is the most conspicuous, continuing the expansion trend of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the year-on-year growth rate is as high as 8.3%, which is far behind other economies.

　　In the second tier are Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The growth rates of the three economies were similar, at about 5%, and Vietnam was slightly higher at 5.03%; Indonesia and Malaysia grew by 5.01% and 5.0% respectively.

Compared with the year-on-year data in the fourth quarter of last year, Malaysia grew faster, while the economic growth rates of Vietnam and Indonesia were basically flat.

　　Singapore and Thailand have relatively lower growth rates and are in the third tier.

The first quarter GDP growth of the two countries was 3.7% and 2.2% respectively.

However, from a trend point of view, Singapore has slowed down from the 5.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year; Thailand is on the rise, with a growth rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.

　　Three driving forces of economic growth

　　Through the above data, it is not difficult to find that although the economic growth rate of the six major economies has fluctuated, the overall economy has reversed the bleak situation in the early stage of the outbreak.

The factors supporting the recovery of major economies in the region are mainly in the following three aspects.

　　The first is the increase in the vaccination rate of the new crown.

According to relevant statistics, the vaccination rate of the six major economies is above 60%, and the vaccination rate of some economies such as Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia has reached more than 80%.

The increase in vaccination rates has created favorable conditions for the recovery of various industries in many economies.

　　The second is the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control.

With the increase in vaccination rates, many economies have successively relaxed epidemic prevention measures, economic activities have resumed, and social consumption is also accelerating.

　　In the Philippines, the government official said that the country's first-quarter GDP growth was mainly driven by a boost in domestic demand. In the first quarter, Philippine personal consumption increased by 10.1% year-on-year, in sharp contrast to the negative growth in the same period last year.

　　At the same time, in terms of foreign trade, since the beginning of this year, major economies in Southeast Asia have gradually eased the entry of foreign tourists, and the operating data of catering, retail, and services in economies that rely on tourism development, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have also experienced rapid growth, further helping Economic recovery.

　　The third is the strong growth of foreign trade exports.

With the recovery of economic activities, the import and export of foreign trade in major economies in Southeast Asia has grown significantly.

　　In the first quarter, Vietnam's total import and export of goods grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of over 800 million US dollars. Its exports were mainly driven by manufacturing processed products.

Coincidentally, Indonesia, as a major supplier of these resources, has also achieved record trade surpluses, driven by soaring global commodity prices such as coal and palm oil.

　　In Malaysia, rising international commodity prices also contributed to a significant increase in exports.

In the first quarter, exports of agricultural products, mainly palm oil and related manufactured products, increased by 49.8% year-on-year; exports of minerals, mainly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, surged by 58.9% year-on-year.

　　Economic growth faces external risks and challenges

　　Although the six major economies in Southeast Asia recovered well in the first quarter, economic growth still faces external risks and challenges.

　　First, the uncertainty of the global new crown epidemic is still a major obstacle.

When many Southeast Asian countries released economic data for the first quarter, they emphasized that the economy is expected to continue to grow in the second quarter, but the uncertainty of the new crown epidemic is still the main risk threatening the continued economic recovery, which is related to the stability of production and supply chains.

　　For example, in Vietnam, workers still need to be quarantined after contracting the new crown, which also makes the country's factory production face the challenge of labor shortages.

At the same time, the instability of the external epidemic also affects the stability of Vietnam's imported raw materials and components to a certain extent.

　　Second, international geopolitical tensions.

Analysts in Southeast Asia pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has pushed up the prices of bulk commodities and raw materials, which may affect the economic growth of countries that rely on imported raw materials for processing.

　　Third, the level of global inflation has risen.

Driven by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, inflation in the world's major economies has risen.

Although inflation in Southeast Asia is still historically low, this does not mean that Southeast Asian economies can "sit back and relax".

　　Analysts believe that under the pressure of high inflation in the United States, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, which may further pose a challenge to capital outflows in the region.

At present, the central banks of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other countries have all taken precautionary measures against the rising global inflation.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, as domestic inflation continues to rise, many countries are expected to enter the ranks of interest rate hikes.

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