[One-week strategy of top ten brokerages] Is the rebound of high prosperity coming to an end? A-shares are gradually entering a new round of upward cycle
CITIC Securities: The medium-term slow rise is still in the early stage, and the four main lines continue to rotate
The local epidemic trend has improved and the policy synergy has begun to appear. The improvement in fundamentals is expected to drive the mid-term recovery of A shares for several months. It is still in the early stage. The rhythm of the market is characterized by a slow rise, and the four main lines continue to rotate in structure.
On the trend, the impact of local epidemics in China has improved. The resumption of work and production and the resumption of business and the market are gradually progressing. The policy of stabilizing growth has been implemented taking into account the density and intensity, and the policy synergy has begun to appear. After the domestic economy has passed the low point in April, it is expected to start in May. Returning to the month-to-month improvement trend, the growth rate of A-share earnings will also pick up after bottoming out in the second quarter.
In terms of rhythm, this round of repair market is characterized by a slow rise. It is still in the early stage. Epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production are a gradual process. External disturbances have not been completely eliminated. Although market sentiment has been restored, it is still at a low level. Institutional positions It is also still at a low level, and the inflow of incremental funds is relatively slow.
Structurally, the four main lines continue to rotate. It is recommended to firmly deploy the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate throughout the year, continue to focus on the main line of resumption of work and production quarterly, and focus on the main line of consumption restoration on a monthly basis.
Haitong Securities: The bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A shares has appeared
Since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in November 2014, the correlation between China and the US stock markets has increased, but it is still weak, and the phenomenon of A-shares following the decline is obvious.
Since the end of April this year, A-shares have not followed suit after the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, due to the dislocation of the economic cycles of China and the United States and the different valuation positions of the stock market.
The big bottom of the 3-4-year cycle of A-shares has appeared, and positive factors are accumulating. At this stage, new infrastructure is better, such as digital economy, low-carbon economy, and consumption will be gradually emphasized in the future.
Guotai Junan Securities: The market is still in the long window period of the eating market
Little Man is better than everything, and the market is still in the long window period of the food market.
There is still room for the index to rebound, but we should be wary of the exhaustion of long-term momentum caused by policy expectations moving from divergence to consensus.
What should be more concerned is that the main line of investment will really start to emerge.
A better investment portfolio: A-shares increase allocation to stabilize growth value, and H-shares increase allocation to technology leaders.
The focus of stock selection is on stocks with performance, high performance certainty, and marginal improvement in performance certainty, and the subdivision leader will be better than the tail company.
Recommendations: 1) Public investment sectors dominated by government spending: construction, power grids, photovoltaics, wind power, and some mid-cycles such as consumer building materials and steel in Q2; 2) Approaching consumer opportunities: live pigs, food and beverages, and hotels.
3) The direction of stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second-tier state-owned real estate, and banks.
And the H-share technology leader.
The passivation of H-share technology leaders and consumption to the impact of the epidemic is an important bottoming signal.
CICC: The market already has mid-line value, focusing on three directions
Looking forward to the market outlook, we reiterate that the market has some characteristics of being at the bottom in terms of policies, valuations and capital sentiment, and the market already has a mid-line value; the market environment still has certain challenges, and more room for further upside requires more positive fundamentals catalyst.
In particular, the month-on-month improvement in profit expectations may be more important. In the context of the increase in domestic "steady growth" and the decline in overseas growth, in the future, we will focus on the post-epidemic recovery of domestic fundamentals, including real estate and consumer demand.
Currently focusing on three directions: 1) Steady growth sectors with relatively low valuations may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, industry chains related to stable demand for real estate (building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishing, etc.), etc.; 2 ) Mid-stream and downstream consumption with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation, and still bright medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.; 3) Manufacturing Risks in growth sectors including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware and semiconductors have been released. The turning point lies in whether the "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors can be marginally improved.
GF Securities: Value first, strategically bullish small-cap growth stocks
A shares are neither humble nor arrogant, value comes first, and the strategy is to look at small-cap growth stocks.
We judge that the market will shift from mud and sand to richer structural opportunities. We recommend focusing on value stocks first, followed by small-cap growth stocks that benefit from the improvement in the credit environment of private companies, are limited by the Fed's tightening, have an uncrowded transaction structure, and are oversold in the early stage.
Industry configuration: 1. "Old-style" steady growth (real estate/consumer building materials/home appliances/banks); 2. "Supply-demand gap" inflation-benefiting resources/materials (coal/copper/potash fertilizer); 3. Gradually benefiting from the private credit environment Small-cap growth stocks (photovoltaic modules/semiconductor equipment) with improved and more attractive odds.
China Merchants Securities: A-shares are gradually entering a new round of upward cycle, and stable growth is an important main line at present
In May, the 5-year LPR was lowered by 15BP, exceeding expectations; in April, the RRR cut was implemented, and the improvement of excess liquidity accelerated. higher than nominal GDP growth.
Many signals indicate that asset prices have upward momentum.
Abundant liquidity has brought important support to A shares.
Although there are many factors that are unfavorable to the economy at present, the capital distribution and asset appreciation seem to have begun.
A-shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle.
Steady growth is an important main line at present, and traditional cyclical products, new energy infrastructure and other sectors that benefit from new starts and construction acceleration and the main line of post-epidemic recovery of economic activities can be focused on.
Essence Securities: A shares still need to wait for a clearer right-hand signal, "steady growth" is still the main position
Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has experienced three waves of decline-rebound market: the main line of rebound is from old infrastructure - real estate - (repair after the epidemic, in mid-April, mainly social services, food and beverage) - high prosperity track stocks.
As far as this round of oversold rebounds on the high-boom track is concerned, the emotional-based oversold rebound on the high-boom track is expected to come to an end, and the follow-up rebound needs to pay attention to the improvement of incremental funds.
For the market reversal, A shares still need to wait for a clearer right-side signal, and are currently in the low balance area.
We have always believed that the inflection point of domestic fundamentals' molecular-end profit expectations is the primary core signal of market reversal. The market always expects "real moves" and "real moves" from the policy side to effectively reverse the current domestic fundamental expectations.
At present, we suggest that "heart to the light" and look forward to "or leap into the abyss" in the second quarter.
Regarding the current four main lines of "stable growth, high prosperity, post-pandemic recovery, and global inflation", we believe that "stable growth" is still the main front (positional warfare, it is not appropriate to switch back and forth).
1. The field of stable growth: In the process of communicating with institutions, it was found that there is a consensus on the recognition of regional banks > infrastructure chain > real estate chain; the real estate (chain) is again significantly exceeded and requires the verification of a substantial and continuous recovery of fundamentals, which is currently disputed by the market larger.
We believe that the substantial inflow of northbound funds into real estate can serve as an important signal of the second wave of apparent excess;
2. High-boom fields: From the perspective of the current high-boom track fundamentals and boom trends, we believe that the internal order of the boom is: photovoltaics > national defense and military industries > semiconductors, new energy vehicles > wind power;
3. In the field of post-epidemic restoration: In the process of communicating with institutions, there are two rules: one is that there must be a post-pandemic restoration market;
4. In the field of global inflation: For inflation, during the exchange process of investors, we found that attention began to focus on the transmission of PPI-CPI, that is, the CPI chain of consumer staples. We believe that although this rule will be late, it will not be absent.
Minsheng Securities: The growth rebound is coming to an end, preparing for a new round of cyclical market
After a rebound of nearly a month, some of the growth sectors are close to the historical rebound and have exceeded the historical center, but it may be the "reversal illusion" caused by the previous decline exceeding the historical average.
It is worth noting that in this round of rebound, the extent of the fund's performance differentiation and convergence this year has obviously not kept up with the convergence of asset prices, and "position covering" constitutes a potential reason.
Last week's asset price performance seemed to be "robust", but in fact it was "calm". The preset path of fundamentals is no different from the previous one: the growth rebound is coming to an end, and it is only possible to choose sub-sectors where supply and demand are independent of inflation.
The real cycle is coming back, grasping the certainty of energy, the resilience of metals and the importance of energy transport.
Recommended: Oil & Gas, Aluminum, Copper, Coal, Oil Transportation, Gold, Real Estate, Fertilizer and Banking.
Zheshang Securities: A-shares have gone from rebound to reversal, optimistic about "Science and Hong Kong stability"
At present, we believe that the market has ushered in the third largest inflection point, and A shares have turned from rebound to reversal, and it is recommended to be optimistic about the strategy.
From bounce to reversal: The logic of three reversals.
We believe that A-shares have begun to reverse from a rebound. First, the value of the A-share allocation has emerged from the perspective of the stock-to-bond income ratio. Second, the bottom of the domestic economy has begun to be clear. Third, the impact of US stocks has been passivated.
In other words, the two major factors that suppressed the market in the early stage, namely the domestic economic pressure and the disturbance of the US stock market, have passed the darkest moment.
A shares that have undergone a full adjustment are beginning to be more sensitive to positives.
As steady growth continues to exert force, A-shares have turned from rebound to reversal, and the recent 5-year LPR has been lowered more than expected to confirm the reversal pattern.
The reversal is also differentiated: choose the main battlefield of the market.
For A-shares, with the increase in the number of listed companies, it has become the norm for the structure to be significantly differentiated.
Although we are optimistic about the reversal of A-shares, it is still a bull market for a small number of companies. Therefore, optimizing the structure selection is very important for the main battlefield.
In the context of domestic substitution and energy revolution, we are still optimistic about the direction of semiconductors, defense equipment, and new energy, but according to the experience of various rounds of bull market replacement, the next batch of bull stocks will be reshuffled.
Therefore, for the group star stocks, although the short-term rebound is good, it is also particularly important to use the rebound to remove the false and preserve the true.
We are optimistic about the “Stable Kegang”, the Sci-tech Innovation Board has begun to reverse, Hang Seng Technology has turned to the bottom, and the steady growth is to be continued.
We suggest that for the direction of semiconductors, defense equipment, and new energy, we should explore new stocks that have been listed in the past 2-3 years, represented by the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
The industrial distribution of these new shares has a distinct sense of the times, the stock price is fully adjusted, and the institutional holdings are low, with a great difference in expectations.
Huaxi Securities: "U"-shaped market, need to avoid excessive optimism
The risk appetite of the A-share market has improved, but it will take time for corporate profits to improve.
Since the end of April, with the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, market sentiment has also been significantly boosted.
From April 27 to May 20, power equipment, automobiles, defense and military industries, and non-ferrous metals rebounded by more than 20%, while banking, real estate and other industries related to stable growth lagged behind.
Since May, leveraged funds have been net purchases for three consecutive weeks, and the financing balance has rebounded slightly, indicating that market risk appetite is continuing to recover.
Since May, the daily turnover of the market has fluctuated around 800 billion yuan most of the time, and the issuance of new funds is still at a low level, indicating that the market is still dominated by stock games.
The market trend reversal needs to verify the improvement of fundamental data and the return of corporate profits to the upside. The current growth rate of A-share companies has not bottomed out, and it will take time for profitability to improve.
Investment strategy: "U"-shaped market, avoid excessive optimism and excessive pessimism.
Against the background of sharp fluctuations in overseas markets, A-shares have gone out of the independent market in the past two weeks, mainly because the market risk appetite has been boosted under the expectation of Shanghai's resumption of work and production and the policy of stabilizing growth.
As far as the current market is concerned, under the pattern of the game of capital stock, the rebound cannot be achieved overnight.
At present, the conditions from rebound to reversal are not yet available. While actively participating in this round of rebound market, it is necessary to avoid excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3000-3200 points, which are all reasonable within the "U"-shaped rebound market. fluctuation.
From a medium and long-term perspective, A shares are in the stage of consolidating the bottom range and the center is gradually moving upward.
In terms of industry configuration, focus on two main investment lines: one is related to stable growth, such as "real estate, construction, building materials", etc.; the other is related to post-epidemic restoration, such as "food and beverages, automobiles", etc.
Brokerage China Author Wang Lulu