Summer is approaching, but mobile phone manufacturers have collectively entered a "cold winter".

  "No money, no damage, still usable."

  It seems that young people no longer have the "change anxiety" as in the past.

Not long ago, the topic of "Why young people are reluctant to change mobile phones" aroused heated discussions and resonated with users-the price is expensive, there is no transformative innovation, and it is not impossible to use.

  On the one hand, people's work and life are more and more inseparable from mobile phones and intelligent applications. Even Musk, who planned to acquire Twitter not long ago, praised in public, "In China, you can basically live in WeChat, and Anything can be done.” The other side of the coin is that smartphones, which have grown rapidly in the past few years, are starting to sell out, especially when 5G phones have entered a bottleneck period.

  According to the latest data from the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in March this year, the domestic market shipped 21.46 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 40.5%.

Among them, 16.185 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 41.1%, accounted for 75.4% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period.

  The listed company Xiaomi, which has just announced its financial report, also confirms this.

Xiaomi's smartphone shipments ranked third in the world in the first quarter, but not only did its revenue and net profit decline, but its smartphone shipments also fell by 22.1% year-on-year.

Wang Xiang, president of Xiaomi, said that the epidemic has had a great impact on production and logistics, and the closure of offline stores in Shanghai has affected consumers' desire to buy.

  The supply chain is also frequently reported to cut orders.

Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingqi revealed that China's mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers have cut orders for about 170 million mobile phones, accounting for about 20% of the 2022 shipment plan.

  According to the statistics of Essence Securities, in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent of Android industry chain companies was -330 million yuan, a year-on-year -144.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent of Apple industry chain companies was 7.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year -11.5%.

  In the past many years, the replacement cycle of 18 months is almost the consensus in the industry, but now domestic mobile phone manufacturers have entered the stock market. Hu Boshan, executive vice president of vivo, recently stated in public that the replacement cycle of users has also changed from the earliest 16-18. months, evolved to 20-24 months, and then to the recent 36 months.

  Why can't 5G mobile phones sell?

  On the one hand, this is closely related to the supply chain under the test of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Although the semiconductor supply has eased to a certain extent compared to last year, the supply of key components in special fields and categories, including storage, display, camera, and advanced process SOC, is still tight, and manufacturers' production line manufacturing has also been affected. At the same time, the epidemic has affected the normal operation of offline stores and the normal distribution of online sales channel logistics.

  From the perspective of 5G mobile phones themselves, there is a general lack of innovation in both hardware and software applications.

  From the perspective of hardware, the screen, camera, and fast charging function have become the focus of major manufacturers to overcome. There is a lack of leap-forward innovation behind the "stacking", which cannot bring users a strong power to change the machine. Folding screen mobile phones are not only expensive, but also the supply chain is not mature enough to become the main force driving the mobile phone market.

  From the software point of view, the application of 5G has not met expectations. The current 4G mobile phone is enough to carry almost all mobile phone applications, and the killer application around 5G has not appeared in the market. From the perspective of operators, 5G tariffs are still high. .

  Previously, many mobile phone manufacturers who had fought hard in the thousand-yuan phone market hoped to seize the vacant 5G mobile phone market of Huawei, and plunged into the high-end flagship field of about 5,000 yuan, but from the perspective of third-party data, Apple is still firmly Firmly hold the right to speak in the high-end mobile phone market.

  The challenges brought about by the consumer demand of users are undoubtedly far greater than the challenges encountered in the production of mobile phones.

  Under the epidemic, users have more opportunities to work from home and online learning. These demands have brought more growth in PCs, tablets and other products, but they have limited sales of mobile phones.

In addition, the impact of consumer budgets has led to sluggish demand in the mobile phone market, and overseas markets are also unclear. Mobile phone manufacturers generally adopt a more stable and conservative mobile phone operation strategy, and even actively deploy smart cars and other fields.

Behind the structural adjustment, for mobile phone manufacturers, the next step is to replace "long days" with "tight days".