Record inflation due to supply network disruptions triggered by the new Corona.

How much the personal consumption that supports the US economy will be braked has been a major concern in the financial markets these days.

According to the local story, the popular restaurants are very busy, and Americans seem to have a strong desire to consume, but it seems that some worrisome debt data is coming out and it is making investors rush.

(Hiroshi Nakazawa, Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs)

Strong American consumption

It is well known that Americans like to consume.

Investors are paying particular attention to personal consumption-related economic indicators, as personal consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP = gross domestic product.

US retail sales, released on the night of May 17th, Japan time, are also big economic statistics for looking at US consumption.

As a result, retail sales in April and last month showed good performance, with record inflation blowing, 0.9% higher than the previous month, and an increase for the fourth straight month.

Looking at the breakdown, "general stores" increased by 4% and "restaurants and bars" increased by 2%.

I hear that Americans are now "exploding" their willingness to consume because lockdowns have been implemented due to the spread of the new coronavirus and the period of time when they have not been able to go out has continued for a long time.

Mr. Hiroshi Yoshida of Okasan Securities, who is stationed in New York, USA, said as follows.

● Okasan Securities Co., Ltd. Hiroshi Yoshida

“When I commute to work around Times Square, people are so crowded that I can't walk on the sidewalk and I'm walking on the road. I can't make reservations for popular restaurants at all

. The

amount of money is rising, but the demand is still quite high.

I feel that Americans have a very strong desire to consume in the field.

" It is an English slang.

YOLO is an abbreviation for [You Only Live Once] and means “life is only once”.

Recently, it seems that it is being used more and more on SNS in the United States. "Because life is only once, let's enjoy now!" Such brightness is pushing up economic indicators.

From the perspective of Japanese people, it is normal to think about savings with this amount of inflation, but in the United States, wages are on the rise due to labor shortages, and "the salary will rise in the future, so now. Some market players have pointed out that expectations for the future, "it's okay to use it," have led to strong consumption.

Is it okay for revolving payments to increase rapidly?

On the other hand, some interesting data came out.

It is a "consumer credit balance" that indicates a loan such as a personal loan.

The US Federal Reserve Board announced on May 7 that the consumer credit balance in March was $ 4.539 trillion, an increase of $ 52.4 billion from the previous month / February.

This was more than double the market expectation, and it was a big increase of 14% on an annualized basis, which is said to have shocked investors.

In particular, the growth rate of credit card “revolving payments” was 35% on an annualized basis, the highest level in 24 years since April 1998.

Since revolving payments are often used for payments for travel and restaurants, there was widespread concern that there might be heavy interest-bearing debt behind strong personal consumption.

It is a new memory that the subprime mortgage problem that lent unreasonable mortgages to low-income earners occurred in the once booming United States.

Perhaps the US consumer spending, which looks good, is a tower on the sand, and I feel that the need for closer inspection of economic indicators is required more than usual.

Scheduled to pay attention

The Japan-US Summit Meeting is scheduled for the 23rd.

Prime Minister Kishida is making adjustments to announce his participation in the new economic partnership "IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework)" that the United States is aiming to launch.

In addition, at the general meeting of shareholders of Seven & i Holdings, it seems that attention will be paid to how other shareholders accepted the claims of overseas investment funds.