Shenzhen's property market in the "relaxing circle" of regulatory policies: home buyers become "calm", and there are high voices for the reduction of interest rates on existing mortgages
In recent times, loosening has become a key word in the regulation of the property market in many places.
As one of the benchmarks of the property market in first-tier cities, Shenzhen seems to have been surrounded by the "unbinding circle" of property market regulation, and there are constant "rumors" about policy adjustments in Shenzhen's property market.
However, up to now, Shenzhen's property market regulation policy has not changed, and buyers should not believe in rumors.
Is the property market changing or not?
This is a multiple-choice question in front of first-tier cities.
In the past, the Shenzhen property market was very "sensitive", especially to expectations of policy changes, but this year things seem to be a little different.
Securities Times reporters found in field visits that after more than a year of in-depth regulation and changes in the economic environment, even in the face of various property market regulation policy changes, home buyers seem to have become more and more "calm", not Few buyers hope that Shenzhen can consolidate the hard-won "regulatory effect", and the reference price of relevant second-hand houses can be more "accurate" after the update.
In addition, for changes in mortgage interest rates, most home buyers prefer that the interest rates of existing mortgages will also be lowered.
Consolidate the hard-won "regulatory effect"
According to incomplete statistics, since May, nearly 40 cities across the country have introduced policies to loosen property market regulation, including relaxing purchase restrictions and sales restrictions, reducing down payment ratios, lowering mortgage interest rates, increasing provident fund loan quotas, and issuing housing subsidies.
Among them, many cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, such as Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, etc., have also successively introduced policies to loosen the property market.
Dongguan and Huizhou, which are close to Shenzhen, have also "relaxed" the property market regulation policy to a certain extent. Among them, Dongguan proposed that those who have two or three children can add a new set of commercial housing and personal housing transfer VAT tax exemption period Policies such as the adjustment from 5 years to 2 years have attracted attention.
Stimulated by the "favorable" policy, the reporter called several new housing project marketing centers in Dongguan City and Humen Town. Some sales managers said that the preferential discount measures introduced some time ago had been tightened, and the market also reported that second-hand housing in Dongguan repeatedly appeared "reverse" price" message.
The deregulation policy of the property market in Dongguan has brought some market reactions. In some government and community forums in Shenzhen, the reporter also found that many buyers posted and discussed, calling on Shenzhen to cautiously "relax" the property market regulation policy and consolidate the hard-won "regulation". Effect".
In several new housing project marketing centers in Luohu District and Guangming District, the reporter randomly interviewed several house buyers. Everyone is highly concerned about how to adjust the reference price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen and whether the property market regulation policy will change. Policy changes can be implemented as soon as possible, especially the reference price of second-hand housing.
In addition to the price adjustment, a number of home buyers also told reporters that the current reference price of second-hand housing is a "one-size-fits-all" price for one community. If the reference price of second-hand housing is updated, it is hoped that the price will be more "accurate", such as according to the floor and orientation. Calculate the reference price.
In addition to the industry's own policies, the regulation effect of the real estate market is also affected by financial credit and taxation.
Recent changes in financial policies have also injected vitality into the real estate industry.
Recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Issues Concerning Adjustment of Differential Housing Credit Policies". The lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first home is adjusted to not lower than the LPR (loan market quotation rate) minus 20 basis points, and the second home is implemented according to the current regulations.
However, the reporter consulted the personal loan managers of Bank of China, Bank of Ningbo and other banks, and they all said that they had not received an official notice.
At present, the minimum mortgage interest rate for the first home in Shenzhen can reach 4.9%. A loan manager said, "Even if there is room for downward adjustment, it may be difficult to reach 4.4% according to the situation in Shenzhen." However, compared with last year, many banks have The speed of lending has remained relatively fast. Some banks have relaxed the review of the second-hand housing mortgage business, and the speed of mortgage lending has increased.
In addition, for changes in mortgage interest rates, most home buyers prefer that the interest rates of existing mortgages will also be lowered.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, pointed out that for existing users, the way to reduce mortgage interest rates is not only the decline of LPR. The central bank, various commercial banks and local governments can actively reduce mortgage interest rates, and even give different strengths 's discount.
The trend of LPR in May still showed a downward trend. In the future, real estate finance will further accelerate and increase the frequency and intensity of easing.
Buying a house still needs to be done
So, under the "stimulation" of the loosening of regulation in surrounding cities and the expected changes in mortgage interest rates, what changes have taken place in the transaction situation of Shenzhen's property market?
In fact, since the beginning of April, there have been some signs of recovery in Shenzhen market transactions, but it can also be seen that home buyers are "cautious".
According to data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, in April, a total of 2,851 first-hand housing units were sold in Shenzhen, down 0.3% from the previous month, and 2,539 second-hand housing units were signed online, a month-on-month growth rate of 68.4%.
According to data from the National Research Center of Midland Realty, 592 second-hand housing units were registered in Shenzhen last week, up 141.6% month-on-month.
Last week, 2 new housing projects were put on the market for sale, both from Longhua District, bringing a total of 1,687 housing units, but the de-purchasing situation of the two projects was not ideal.
In addition, data from the Leyoujia Research Center shows that among the top 20 second-hand real estate properties in Shenzhen in terms of transaction volume in April, over 50% of the residential owners' listing prices dropped month-on-month.
The reporter found in Luohu, Futian, Longgang Bantian and other areas that some intermediary managers reported that some owners of second-hand houses have indeed "reversed the price" recently, but these houses have not been sold for a long time before, and most of the owners are also Have a "try it out" attitude.
In the interview, in the face of the owner's "reverse price" phenomenon, many home buyers also said that compared with the situation in 2020, they have become more "calm", and frankly said that even if the control policy changes, it is still necessary to buy a house at present. .
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, believes that the downturn in real estate sales is mainly affected by three factors: first, due to the tightening of epidemic prevention and control, residents' house viewing and purchase behavior is restricted; second, the growth rate of residents' income has slowed down significantly, and continued The ability to increase leverage has been weakened; third, due to the debt defaults of housing companies in the past two years, residents do not trust the sales of off-plan houses, which also drags down real estate sales.
The marketing director of a local real estate company in Shenzhen told the Securities Times reporter that the company is still optimistic about the market prospects in Shenzhen, but in the current regulatory environment, the company's pace of launching new projects will be controlled, and discount promotions for new properties on sale will continue.
He Qianru, director of Midland Property National Research Center, believes, "The mortgage interest rate in Shenzhen's property market is at the lowest level among the four major first-tier cities, and it is also relatively low nationwide. Therefore, if Shenzhen also reduces the mortgage interest rate for the first home, it will The degree of stimulation in the market is relatively small, but it is better to have good than no good. After all, the current situation of Shenzhen's residential market is not optimistic. As for whether Shenzhen will introduce other favorable policies, I think there will be, but it is not easy to speculate. "
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, believes that under the background of the current high housing prices, it is more pressure for new citizens to buy a house, because the current housing price level is compared with the bailouts in 2017 and 2016. , the biggest change is that housing prices have reached a record high, and housing prices in many hot cities where new citizens are concentrated have doubled or even tripled than at that time. mismatch.