Last weekend, a piece of news about "interest rate cuts for first home loans" was swiped on the Internet. The LPR (Loan Market Quote Rate) for the corresponding term is adjusted to "not less than LPR minus 20 basis points".

Taking the latest LPR quotation of more than 5 years in April as a reference, the minimum mortgage interest rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.4%.

The local government follows the principle of "policy based on the city" to determine the direction of adjustment.

  Before the introduction of this policy, more than 100 cities across the country had voluntarily lowered the mortgage interest rate during the year, and some banks in some regions had implemented the standard of 4.6% for the first mortgage interest rate.

What is the latest situation?

On May 16, the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter consulted many banks in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Jinan and other six places, but generally did not receive the latest adjustment notice, "may be issued after a while." Yes Bank credit manager said.

  It is worth mentioning that LPR will usher in the latest quotation this Thursday (May 20), and its reference MLF (Medium Lending Facility) interest rate will remain unchanged in the latest sequel on May 16, but the industry does not Few people believe that there is a possibility of a separate cut in the LPR interest rate.

Banks in Beijing, Guangzhou and other six places have not yet received the latest adjustment notice, and some banks have lowered their first home loan interest rates by 40 basis points during the year

  On May 16, the reporter consulted a number of banks in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Jinan, etc., including ICBC, CCB, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, CITIC, Everbright, Guangfa, and Zhongyuan Bank. Latest adjustment notice.

  The credit manager of an ICBC in Beijing told reporters that the adjustment notice has not been received yet. At present, the policy of LPR+55 basis points is still implemented for the first home loan interest rate, and the second home loan interest rate is LPR+105 basis points.

Referring to the latest (April) LPR quotation with a term of more than 5 years, the interest rate of the first home loan is 5.15%, and the second home loan interest rate is 5.65%.

A Bank of China credit manager also said that the current interest rate policy will remain unchanged. "The policy just released yesterday may not be so fast (adjusted)."

  The first home loan interest rates of banks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have not yet been adjusted.

A credit manager of China CITIC Bank in Guangzhou said that the interest rate for the first home loan is still 5.05%, that is, 45 points are added on the basis of the latest LPR quotation; a credit manager of Guangfa Bank in Shenzhen said that the first home loan executes 4.9% Interest rate, "It has not been adjusted recently, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen is still sluggish, and the average monthly transaction volume has not exceeded 2,000 units."

  The reporter noticed that recently, banks in Jinan, Fuzhou, and Zhengzhou have lowered the interest rate of the first home loan significantly, even as low as the LPR level. Have these areas made adjustments more quickly?

  An agricultural bank credit manager in Jinan said that the interest rate for the first set of commercial loans was just lowered to 4.6% around May 1. "I heard about the latest policy over the weekend, but I haven't received a notice yet, and it needs to be adjusted systematically."

  The news of Zhongyuan Bank's reduction of mortgage interest rates in Zhengzhou City has also attracted attention.

A credit manager of the bank told reporters on May 16 that the current first-home loan interest rate for general home buyers (without discounts) is 4.9%, which was just adjusted in April. Before the adjustment, it was 5.3%, a reduction of 40% basis point.

There is no new adjustment notice after this policy.

  The Fuzhou area has also recently reported that the “minimum bank’s first-home loan interest rate can reach 4.6%”. The reporter consulted a CCB sub-branch in the area on May 16. The credit manager said that if a new building is admitted in the bank, the first home The mortgage interest rate is 4.9%, that is, 30 basis points will be added to the latest LPR quotation; if you are not admitted, it will be 5.15%, which will be 50 basis points added to the latest LPR quotation.

The bank has not yet received the latest document. "It may take some time, and if the LPR is lowered in May, it will be lowered accordingly." The credit manager said.

The current residents' willingness to buy houses is low, and the new policy will enhance the effect of local loosening policies

  In fact, this year has set off a nationwide mortgage "interest rate cut wave".

Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the Central Bank, once revealed that since March, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have voluntarily lowered their mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions, with an average rate ranging from 20 to 60 basis points. The provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism cooperates with the local government's regulatory requirements, and the lower limit of the city's down payment ratio and the lower limit of the interest rate have been lowered due to the city's policy.

  Why should the central level further relax the policy?

Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that since this year, the central government has frequently shouted to support rigid and reasonable housing demand, and local governments have continuously introduced policies to loosen the property market. expected.

The differentiated credit policy of the central government will increase the effect of the loosening of policies in various places, and it is also the central government's clear message of "rescue the market". If the subsequent market stabilization is less than expected, it is expected that the loosening of local policies will be further strengthened.

  The data also showed that the sales data of the top 100 real estate companies in April halved again. In the April financial data released by the central bank last week, household housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, which was the first historical drop in data in February this year. After that, negative growth occurred for the second time.

  "This year is the third year of the fight against the epidemic. The savings and accumulation of many households and enterprises are also being consumed, and their ability to resist shocks is weakening. Under the epidemic, the unemployment rate will rise." Lu Ting, chief economist at Nomura Securities last weekend At the PBC Chief Economist Forum of Tsinghua University, it was pointed out that the decline of residents' spending power and willingness to spend is one of the main reasons for the low willingness of residents to buy houses.

  Wang Xiaoqiang said that the reduction of mortgage interest rates will reduce the cost of housing purchases and stimulate buyers to enter the market. This time, the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first set of housing has been lowered by 20 basis points. The mortgage interest rate for a set of houses can be as low as 4.4%. The mortgage interest rate level has returned to the mortgage level after September 2015. An important reason for the heating up of the national real estate in 2016 is that the credit environment is loose. It can be predicted that the central credit policy will be Booster for the stabilization of the real estate market.

  According to the calculation of industry experts, based on the loan amount of 500,000 yuan, the term of 30 years, and the repayment of equal principal and interest, the interest rate is reduced by 20 basis points, and the monthly monthly payment expenditure can be reduced by about 60 yuan on average, and the interest expense will be reduced by about 20,000 yuan in the next 30 years. Yuan.

  However, from a local perspective, the CITIC Securities team clearly believes that under the general tone of "housing, not speculating," local "city-specific policies" will focus on third- and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities. First-tier cities are sensitive to housing prices The effect of stabilizing property is limited, and the possibility of a substantial liberalization is low.

MLF "holds no action" for 4 consecutive months, is there a high probability of "interest rate cut" in the LPR quotation this week?

  It is worth mentioning that LPR will usher in the latest quotation on Thursday (May 20), and the interest rate of its reference policy tool MLF (Medium Lending Facility) will remain unchanged in the latest sequel on May 16. , it has been "on hold" for 4 consecutive months since it was lowered in January this year.

Will LPR rates be cut individually?

  Many people in the industry believe that it is still possible, because among the components of the LPR quotation, although the MLF has not changed, the bank quotation may decline.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, mentioned that in addition to the sharp drop in money market interest rates recently, regulators are stepping up efforts to guide deposit interest rates down.

  In late April, large state-owned banks and a number of joint-stock banks "grouped" to cut a wave of deposit interest rates by 10 basis points.

Regarding the reasons for the downward adjustment, the first quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank on May 9 gave the answer: the central bank guided the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to establish a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates in April, and the member banks of the self-discipline mechanism adjusted the deposit interest rate level reasonably.

The central bank said that in the context of the current overall decline in market interest rates, the establishment of this mechanism will help banks stabilize debt costs and promote further declines in real loan interest rates.

  "At the same time, the overnight and 7-day interest rates from April to May continued to run away from the center of the interest rate corridor, and the NCD (large negotiable certificate of deposit) interest rate fell sharply by more than 30 basis points from the peak in March. Improving the comprehensive debt cost of banks with the two ends of inter-bank liabilities, according to the marginal cost method, can directly drive the LPR quotation down in May." Wang Yifeng, chief financial analyst at Everbright Securities, said.

  Cheng Weimiao, Shell Finance reporter of the Beijing News

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