(Economic Watch) Many indicators fell in April, what is the driving force for China's economic recovery?

  China News Agency, Beijing, May 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Under the repeated epidemics, China's major economic indicators announced on the 16th declined in April.

Nonetheless, China's National Bureau of Statistics stressed that "the national economy is expected to stabilize and pick up".

What is the driving force behind this recovery?

  Judging from the data in April, the impact of the local epidemic on China's economy has already emerged. In addition to the overall investment in line with expectations, production and consumption have both contracted.

In the month, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size fell by 2.9% year-on-year, the service industry production index fell by 6.1%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1%.

  Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, bluntly stated at the press conference that "the downward pressure on the economy is increasing".

However, he also said that with the effective coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the national economy is expected to stabilize and rebound.

  This judgment can be supported by China's economic report card in April.

  Considerable economic volume is the source of China's resilience against risk shocks.

Although some areas have been severely hit by the epidemic, at the national level, the total scale of major production and demand indicators is still considerable. The output of steel is 110 million tons, and the output of raw coal is 360 million tons.

In terms of accumulation, the main indicators of industrial added value, investment and import and export in the first four months still maintained growth.

  The strong support of basic industries has created a strong supply guarantee capability.

In the field of agriculture, with increasing support for agricultural production and strengthening field management across China, the current situation of winter wheat seedlings continues to improve, and the preparation for spring planting is progressing smoothly, and the progress is faster than the same period last year.

From the perspective of energy, the increase in production and supply continued to increase, and the main energy products grew rapidly.

In April, the output of raw coal, crude oil and natural gas increased by 10.7%, 4% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively.

  Guaranteed supply and stable prices have been effectively promoted, maintaining the normal life order of the Chinese people.

Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the production and sales of basic living commodities continued to grow.

In April, the added value of food manufacturing, alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing above designated size increased by 0.1% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively.

In the month, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase; the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

  The new kinetic energy continues to grow and expand, further opening up room for economic growth.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, noted that China's manufacturing investment continued to maintain a relatively high growth level in April, with an increase of 12.2% from January to April, of which investment in high-tech industries increased by 22%.

In addition, the production of green smart products is eye-catching. In April, the output of new energy vehicles, mobile communication base station equipment, and solar cells increased by 42.2%, 21.6%, and 20.8% year-on-year, respectively.

  A series of data shows that despite the impact of the epidemic, China's economy has not been hurt, and the general trend of high-quality development has not changed.

However, Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, reminded that to strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development this year and effectively control related risks, it is not enough to rely on one's own potential and resilience.

In particular, it is necessary to fully and deeply tap the growth potential of consumption.

  Wen Bin also pointed out that in the next stage, the epidemic must be controlled as soon as possible to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy.

Macro policies should focus on the goals of stabilizing employment, prices, and growth, increase counter-cyclical adjustment, form a joint force to bail out difficult industries, enterprises and individuals, boost domestic effective demand, reverse expectations as soon as possible, and accelerate the stabilization and recovery of the economy.

  It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the new combined tax and fee support policy has been effectively implemented, and financial support for the real economy has increased, which has played a positive role in alleviating the difficulties of enterprises and stabilizing the economy.

  Fu Linghui revealed that a recent rapid survey by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that after the implementation of large-scale tax refunds, 90% of the companies that obtained incremental VAT refunds believed that their cash flow had improved, and 96.2% expressed their disapproval. The policy is quite satisfactory.

He emphasized that with the adjustment of macroeconomic policies, economic performance is expected to improve at a faster pace.

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