Zhongxin Finance, May 16 (Gong Hongyu) Affected by the epidemic, the downward pressure on my country's economy has increased.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, the total retail sales of consumer goods in my country in April fell by 11.1% year-on-year.

The sales area of ​​commercial housing in the first four months fell by 20.9% year-on-year.

Some people even worry about whether the Chinese economy will experience negative growth in the second quarter.

  In response to hot topics such as China's economic situation, real estate, and residents' consumption, experts such as Li Daokui, Huang Yiping, and Sheng Songcheng recently expressed their opinions and made speeches at the "2022 Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economist Forum".

Sheng Songcheng: The impact of the epidemic on China's economy will be mainly reflected in the second quarter

  Sheng Songcheng, a professor at China Europe International Business School and former director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the epidemic had a considerable impact on the economy in April, and the fight against the epidemic is still ongoing.

The impact of the epidemic on the economy will be mainly reflected in the second quarter.

  Some foreign financial institutions believe that China's economy will experience negative growth in the second quarter.

Sheng Songcheng believes that

the growth rate of more than 1.5% in the second quarter is a high probability event.

His forecast for economic growth is 2.1%.

  In terms of real estate, Sheng Songcheng said that the epidemic has hindered the overall situation of real estate. The biggest impact of the epidemic on real estate is that the recovery situation may be blocked because of this, which has reduced the growth rate of real estate development, seriously impacted real estate sales, and further deteriorated industry expectations.

In his view, real estate regulation can continue to be relaxed, such as appropriately extending the deleveraging cycle and continuing to appropriately loosen demand-side restrictions.

  "But the relaxation of key cities still needs to be cautious, and the supervision of pre-sale funds should be optimized. For example, on the premise of ensuring that the funds are used reasonably, the freezing ratio of pre-sale funds can be appropriately reduced; funds within a certain administrative area can be transferred across projects."

Huang Yiping: Monetary policy should focus on the variables of macro aggregates

  Huang Yiping, deputy dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, pointed out that the epidemic has entered its third year, and we should adopt some policies.

  First, in the face of the liquidity problems encountered by enterprises and families in the third year of fighting the epidemic, the state needs to take some more direct measures to support the lives of institutions and ordinary people.

  Second, if you still want to adopt a "me-based" monetary policy, you need to consider making a fuss about cross-border capital flows, so as to expand the space and increase the freedom of domestic monetary policy independence.

  Third, monetary policy should focus on the variables of macro aggregates.

We should pay more attention to the effects at the aggregate level and macro level and remain relatively cautious about some structural measures.

Huang Haizhou: China should strengthen fiscal and monetary policies sooner rather than later

  Recently, interest rates in China and the United States have been inverted.

Huang Haizhou, managing director of China International Capital Corporation Limited, pointed out that, first of all, the economic cycle between China and the United States is dislocated. In 2020, China's epidemic prevention and control is relatively good. As the only country with positive growth among major countries, the policy force is relatively early. , recover earlier.

The United States, on the other hand, started late and recovered relatively late.

In addition, there are differences in macro leverage between China and the United States.

The United States has carried out leverage replacement on the premise of maintaining rapid economic growth.

  For China, the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States in the short term and the pressure on China's economic growth in the second quarter will have certain constraints on China's policy space.

China does need more support from fiscal and monetary policies, and the timing is critical, sooner rather than later.

Li Daokui: It is recommended to give cash subsidies to ordinary people affected by the epidemic to stimulate consumption

  Li Daokui, dean of the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, said that China actually has "two battlefields" to fight the epidemic.

On the one hand, we must control the epidemic, and on the other hand, we must protect the industrial chain.

  Li Daokui said that if the production line and the industrial chain can be maintained, the potential GDP growth rate in the future can be maintained at 0.1%, and the growth rate in each year in the future can be increased by 0.1%. Based on the basic synchronization of consumption with the entire economy, the per capita consumption of residents will increase every year. 0.1%.

  Regarding the weakness of Chinese residents' consumption under the influence of the epidemic, Li Daokui said that some residents' income has declined after the epidemic, and their consumption has also declined.

We must ensure smooth logistics, and more importantly, provide direct cash subsidies to the affected people.

Huang Qifan: Renminbi anchoring the dollar is by no means a long-term solution

  Huang Qifan, a researcher at the National Institute of Innovation and Development Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, mentioned at the meeting that it is necessary to establish an anchor for the renminbi in time.

At present, the issuance of RMB is still anchored to the US dollar to a certain extent. Of course, there are various historical and practical reasons, but from the perspective of China's future international status and development needs, it is by no means a long-term solution.

A country's currency should be anchored on the tax content of its own GDP and on its own national debt credit. Only in this way can it have its own seigniorage.

Only with its own independent currency anchor and its own Treasury bond yield curve can there be truly independent monetary policy, and the pricing of all domestic financial assets will have a benchmark.

  The financial sector cannot "talk about coal discoloration".

China's coal-dominated resource endowment determines that it is impossible for China to eliminate all coal-fired power units overnight.

This transformation requires a process. Even if the "30.60" dual-carbon goal is achieved in the future, coal power is still an important supplement.

Therefore, in this process, the financial sector should not talk about the color change of coal, but should develop a financing system that serves the green transformation based on national conditions, that is, "transition financing".

This is not only the needs of China, but also the needs of the vast number of developing countries.

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