'expected inflation'.
It is a term that refers to the forecast for the inflation rate of each economic entity, such as households and businesses.
Higher values indicate that inflationary anxiety is not subsiding.
The Consumer Price Index for April announced by the National Statistical Office last month was 4.8%.
It recorded the highest growth rate in 13 years since October 2008, and the expected inflation rate was 3.1%, the highest in 9 years.
It's still running a lot, but it means that there is a feeling of anxiety that it will go up even more in the future.
Nothing goes up... But was it really a 'disruption'?
Enlarging an image
The atmosphere of the scene I listened to while covering the water prices was quite different.
In particular, there were many stories of consumers who hesitated to put items in their shopping carts as well as self-employed people who handle them when the prices of items on the table fluctuate.
It means that there are many people who feel the price rise with their skin.
However, there was a part that caught my heart while reporting on the rise in flour, eggs, and cooking oil.
The point was that many reports including the article I wrote
showed the high price phenomenon based on the 'highest price' of the item, and sometimes used more provocative terms than the phenomenon.
For example, the term 'cooking oil crisis'
that appeared in many articles last week
is true.
While dealing with the policy of limiting the number of edible oil purchases per person in some warehouse-type marts, there were many reports that interpreted it as a 'shortage phenomenon' and even a 'disruption'.
However, the analysis of the edible oil industry officials and the mart officials was slightly different.
It is true that consumers are looking for edible oil more than before (in the case of warehouse-type marts, purchases increased 3.5 times compared to two weeks ago), but it is not causing any disruption in supply.
To say it was a riot, the edible oil piled up in the mart was quite hefty.
When I asked a person from a company that actually makes edible oil if it was really causing a production setback, he replied:
“Considering common sense, it sells so well, but there is no reason for us to reduce (production). International soybean prices have risen too much over the past two or three years, and it is true that the cost burden is burdening them because they have risen a lot recently. It's not that the amount has gone down."
Some signs of hoarding… “There is no problem with supply.”
If so, what about overseas crops
?
In conclusion, the price of soybeans, which is the most used raw material for soybean oil in Korea, has also skyrocketed, but it is not at the level of concern for domestic supply
.
Lee Mi-sook, the Korea Rural Economic Research Institute, who is in charge of observing foreign grains, analyzed that the harvest is taking place in Brazil and South America, the main soybean producers, and the crop is not very good due to La Niña, but this situation is already reflected in the price.
There is a factor that the price will rise slightly in the next few months, but it seems that there will be no major problems in domestic supply and demand, and it is difficult to interpret it as a 'supply crisis' or 'price surge'.
Of course, it is not only supply that affects the 'pre-buy mentality'.
If the fear that prices will continue to rise in the future rises, of course, more consumers will choose to stock up.
In fact, it is also true that there is a movement to stock up on cooking oil in self-employed cafes.
Some food material marts have had difficulties in securing large-capacity cooking oil stocks.
However, given that household cooking oil accounts for only about 10% of total cooking oil consumption, is it appropriate to mention the turmoil without specific evidence?
A retail industry insider said that reports like this
end up being a good excuse for suppliers and distributors to raise prices
.
Reports that inflate the facts have the result of 'stimulating inflation expectations' that the media has been pointing out.
Instead of excessive anxiety, it should contain the phenomenon as it is.
Enlarging an image
A large part of the cause of the current inflation is abroad, such as a surge in international oil prices and a rise in raw material prices.
As it is difficult to fundamentally block the cause right away, voices that we should focus on stabilizing inflation are gaining strength.
In times like these, it is necessary to faithfully present the rationale behind the 'price rise'.
Citizens' words 'I'm going to pick it up because the news says it's going to go up' has been lingering in my ears for a long time.
The aforementioned interviewees also carefully pointed out that 'the media has an aspect that encourages price increases'.
These were all words that were difficult to refute
.
Even though the price situation is severe, I took it as a rebuke to me, who had only written articles mainly on the 'high price phenomenon'.
This is the reason why I wrote a long record of my thoughts and reflections while covering 'The Cooking Oil Crisis?'.
(Photo = Yonhap News)