The price has risen for several consecutive weeks, and the slaughter volume is still abundant, and the supply and demand of pork tend to be basically balanced

  On May 13, the main contract of hog futures 2209 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 19,720 points, a sharp increase of 18.5% from the close of 16,640 points on April 15.

In the first week of May, the national pork price was 24.51 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, which was the third consecutive week of increases.

  Has the price of pigs reversed?

How will the price move next?

What is the current situation of pig supply?

What is the profit and loss situation of the pig industry?

With these questions, the reporter interviewed relevant people in the industry.

Production is close to normal

  "In April this year, the average daily volume of white striped pigs in the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was at the median level in the same period in recent years," said Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market.

  According to the data provided by Liu Tong, in April, the average daily listing volume of white striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was 1,786.03, an increase of 37.97% compared with 1,294.53 in the same period in 2021; an increase of 61.61% compared with 1,105.17 in the same period in 2020; In the same period, 1,915.87 heads decreased by 6.78%; compared with 2,046.23 heads in the same period in 2018, it decreased by 12.72%.

"The current situation of oversupply of live pigs has gradually improved, but the supply is still sufficient," said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

  From the perspective of live pig inventory, since 2022, the live pig inventory has gradually declined from a high level.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of March, there were 423 million live pigs in the country, a decrease of 5.9% from the end of the previous year, but a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, which means that the number of live pigs in the second quarter of this year is still abundant.

In terms of slaughter volume, 196 million live pigs were sold nationwide in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%; pork production was 15.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%.

The slaughtering volume of live pigs at designated slaughtering enterprises across the country increased by 43.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, of which March increased by 71.7% year-on-year.

Affected by the continuous decline in pig prices since the previous year, the live weight of live pigs has begun to decline significantly, and has gradually dropped to less than 130 kg since 2022.

In March, there were 41.85 million breeding sows nationwide, down 3.1% year-on-year and 8.3% down from June 2021.

Affected by the rebound in pig prices in April, it is expected that the production capacity of reproductive sows in May will only be slightly reduced from that in April.

However, experts said that after continuous reduction, the production capacity of reproductive sows in the country has been close to the normal level.

Breeding losses are reduced

  At the end of March, the self-bred piglets sold a 120 kg fat pig, and the loss exceeded 500 yuan; the purchased piglet farm released a 120 kg fat pig, and the loss was close to 300 yuan.

Has the profit and loss situation of aquaculture improved recently?

  "Since April, the total cost of self-bred and purchased piglets has been about 17 yuan/kg and 15 yuan/kg respectively. At present, a 120-kg fat pig will lose 200 to 250 yuan for self-reproduction and self-support. Buying piglets will cost you about 50 yuan." Zhu Zengyong said.

  The improvement in breeding profit and loss is due to the strong rebound in pig prices.

The price of live pigs started from 12.52 yuan/kg in the fourth week of March, and continued to rise to 14.89 yuan/kg in the first week of May, a cumulative increase of 18.9%, but still down 32.3% year-on-year.

The price of pork has rebounded since the third week of April, from 22.33 yuan/kg in the second week of April to 24.51 yuan/kg in the first week of May, a cumulative increase of 9.8%, but still down 32.1% year-on-year.

  A phenomenon worthy of attention is that the price of live pigs has risen more sharply than that of pork.

Experts believe that the reasons are as follows: First, the situation of prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still severe, regional transportation is not smooth, live pigs are blocked, and the supply of live pigs in the market has dropped month-on-month; second, in April, the country continuously purchased and stored 4 batches of 160,000 tons of frozen pork. , and local governments have successively started the procurement and storage of provincial and municipal pork reserves, which has supported the market conditions; third, farmers are bullish on later prices, and they are reluctant to sell; fourth, pork imports in the first quarter were 420,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 64.2%. The circulation of imported frozen products at the port is blocked.

  Affected by factors such as the recovery of pig prices and farmers' optimism about pig prices in the second half of the year, the price of piglets has risen by 23.3% for 6 consecutive weeks, reaching 29.41 yuan/kg in the first week of May.

At present, the price of piglets has risen to the production cost line or above the cost line.

  "In April, the average wholesale price of white striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi rose by 13.13% as a whole compared with March. According to the law, the price in April is generally lower than that in March, but the price in April this year can be 13% higher than that in March. , it is not easy. However, even so, the price in April is still at a low position in the same period of the past five years. This year, the low price superimposed feed price has risen sharply, operating costs have increased significantly, and the pressure on farms to lose money is still relatively large. " Liu Tong said.

maintain certain expectations

  According to the calculation of production cost data in recent years, the price ratio of pig grain at the break-even point of live pig production is about 7:1.

When the price ratio of pig grain is lower than 5:1, it is regarded as entering the first-level warning range of excessive decline.

On May 4, the price ratio of pig to grain was 5.32, which was an improvement from 4.90 in February, but it was still in the second-level warning range for excessive decline.

  "The low point of pig price has passed, and it will rebound in the future, and gradually rebound to above the cost line, but farmers should not have high expectations for the future price." Zhu Zengyong said.

  In the short term, the price of pigs will pull back after "May 1st", but not much.

Mainly because of the weak pork consumption after "May 1st".

A batch of big pigs that have been slaughtered in the early stage may be slaughtered one after another in May, and the market may oversupply in a short period of time.

  However, starting from the second quarter of this year, the price of pigs will show a volatile rebound trend.

Zhu Zengyong told reporters that the number of live pigs released in the second quarter of this year was determined by the breeding volume of fertile sows in the third quarter of last year. Since July last year, the number of fertile sows in the stock has gradually declined, and the supply of piglets has gradually improved in the second quarter of this year. , it is expected that the price of pigs will fluctuate and rebound.

In view of the high expectations of farmers for the price of pigs in the first quarter of this year, the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased, and the price of piglets has risen to about 400 yuan per head.

The cost of outsourcing piglet breeding and self-breeding and self-raising will be consistent in the third quarter.

  "In April this year, the weighted average wholesale price of white striped pigs at the Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Beijing was 16.72 yuan/kg, down 10.30% from 18.64 yuan/kg in the same period in 2019, and sales also dropped by about 7% compared to the same period in 2019. On the one hand, it shows that the supply of live pigs is still relatively abundant, and on the other hand, it also shows that the demand has not returned to the normal level. In the later stage, as the situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has stabilized, there is still a lot of room for the recovery of pork consumption demand." Liu Tong said .

  From June 2002 to May 2018, the price fluctuation of live pigs in my country has experienced 4 complete cycles.

The durations of these 4 full cycles are 48 months, 36 months, 59 months and 49 months, and each full cycle includes a rising phase and a falling phase.

The 5th cycle that is currently running has been in an upward channel for 27 months from June 2018 to the end of August 2020, and has been in a downward channel for a total of 19 months from September 2020 to March 2022. 46 months.

  "In April, the price of pigs bottomed out and rebounded, and the current supply and demand of pork has shifted from excess supply to a basic balance, which means that the possibility of continued decline in pig prices in the later period is relatively small. One cycle." Zhu Zengyong said.

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