Original title: International giants issued a warning of supply cuts, pulp prices exceeded 5900 yuan / ton!

The paper-making leader has two consecutive boards, and the industry's profit recovery is expected in the second half of the year, and institutions are optimistic about these stocks

  With the advent of the peak season of the paper industry in the second half of the year and the effective implementation of the price increase of paper products, the profits of leading companies are expected to recover.

  In early trading today, the Shanghai Composite Index once again fell below the 3,000-point integer mark at the opening.

Coal, oil, real estate and other sectors led the decliners.

Not long after the market opened, the major indexes rose all the way. The ChiNext Index turned from a fall of more than 1.8% to a red one, and the highest intraday gain was more than 2.6%.

At the close of noon, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,000 points.

  Technology topics such as gallium nitride, HJT batteries, industrial mother machines, and automotive chips rose sharply.

The increase of the gallium nitride index ranked first, and the concept stocks Huafeng Measurement and Control, North Huachuang, Heertai, New Clean Energy, and Silan Micro were among the top gainers.

  International wood pulp giant issues warning of supply cuts

  Pulp prices continue to rise

  In the morning, the paper-making sector bucked the market and strengthened. Yibin Paper took the lead in closing the plate and gained 2 daily limit plates in a row.

Meiliyun, Yueyang Linzhi, Tsingshan Paper, and Longlide have followed suit.

During the session, the increase in the papermaking sector fell, and the increase ranked at the bottom of the industry.

  Statistics from Securities Times·Databao show that since the Shanghai Composite Index hit a low point for the year on April 27, as of the close of May 9, the papermaking index rebounded by 12.91% in just six days, significantly exceeding the broader market index in the same period.

Market analysts believe that a global warning of pulp shortages may be the trigger for a sharp rise in the paper sector.

  CCTV financial news, the world's largest pulp producer Susano Paper and Pulp Company recently issued a warning that global pulp stocks have been falling sharply, and the supply is facing shortages, which will cause the prices of essentials such as tissue and toilet paper to rise in the future.

  The company's CEO Walter Shurka said that Russia is an important timber supplier to Europe. Due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the timber trade between Russia and Europe has been completely blocked, and the production capacity of European pulp producers has been suppressed. Global pulp stocks are dwindling, and supply disruptions could happen at any time.

  Judging from the recent domestic pulp price trend, the current pulp price has exceeded 5,900 yuan / ton, a new high in two years.

Guotai Junan Securities said that under the disturbance of multiple supply factors and financial attributes, the international commodity pulp price is expected to remain relatively high in the short term.

  Over 80% of paper stocks fell in the first quarter

  Institutions optimistic about industry profitability recovery

  Data treasure statistics show that the revenue and net profit of the paper industry have continued to increase in the past two years. Last year, the industry revenue growth rate was 23.55%, 5 percentage points higher than the overall A shares; the net profit growth rate was 38.86%, higher than the overall A shares. 20 percentage points.

The annual net profit of industry leaders Sun Paper and Bohui Paper both hit record highs.

  In the first quarter of this year, due to the impact of the market situation and the rising prices of wood pulp and energy costs, the overall revenue growth rate of listed companies in the paper industry slowed down, and the net profit fell by more than 50% year-on-year, all lower than the overall level of A shares.

According to data treasure statistics, over 80% of the papermaking stocks' net profit in the first quarter was in a state of decline.

  Institutions are still optimistic about the future of the paper industry.

With the advent of the industry peak season in the second half of the year and the effective implementation of paper product price increases, the profits of leading companies are expected to pick up.

CITIC Securities pointed out that the current demand for finished paper in Europe and the United States is strong, and overseas paper mills are affected by energy, strikes and other factors, and their output is limited, which is good for my country's finished paper exports.

  The above-mentioned institutions further stated that due to the disturbance of the epidemic, the current domestic demand and transaction of finished paper are relatively flat, and many leading paper mills plan to raise another 200 yuan / ton in May. Demand will also improve after the impact of the epidemic disturbance is weakened, and there is a high probability that the price increase will be implemented.

From the perspective of profitability, the gradual easing of unfavorable factors such as energy costs will be beneficial to the profitability of paper mills.

  In terms of institutional attention, over 40% of paper stocks have received the attention of securities companies' research reports.

According to the unanimous forecast of more than 5 institutions, the net profit of 9 shares in 2022 is expected to increase year-on-year, and the net profit growth rate of reliable shares, Wuzhou Special Paper, and Yiyi shares is expected to exceed 20%.

As of the close on May 9, compared with the high point of the year, the average retracement rate of these 9 stocks reached 32.65%, and the retracement rate of Xianhe shares ranked first with 50.18%, and the company's rolling price-earnings ratio was lower than 17 times.

During the first quarter of this year, Xianhe shares increased its holdings of more than 10 million shares by the capital from the north, and the market value of the holdings at the end of the period rose to the second place among the top ten tradable shareholders.

(Data Bao Liang Qiangang)

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