Pig prices hit a new high since the rebound in March, and the A-share agricultural sector is booming
Expert analysis said that the domestic edible oil supply and demand situation has generally stabilized the market price of live pigs or returned to rationality
Pig prices hit a new high since the rebound in March.
According to Flush data, as of May 9, live pigs (external three yuan) were reported at 15.13 yuan/kg.
The reporter noticed that recently, a WeChat account named "FAO of the United Nations" released news that on May 6, 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released a report showing that in April 2022, the average FAO food price index was 158.5 points. , down 0.8% from the all-time high set in March, but the index level in April was still 29.8% higher than a year earlier.
In the future, the reporter conducted in-depth interviews on where the price of pigs, edible oil and food that people are concerned about will go.
In the secondary market, according to data from Flush, on May 9, many agricultural sectors of A-shares were in the red, among which the growth rates of planting and forestry, agricultural services, aquaculture and grain planting were 3.4%, 2.57%, 1.87% and 1.87% respectively. %.
Widely observed
Text/Guangzhou Daily All Media Reporters Zhang Lu and Tu Duanyu
Some edible oil prices will rise more moderately
"My mother is a typical price sensitive person. She is very aware of the price of edible oil of various brands. The oil price has risen. Fortunately, the company's welfare sometimes provides rice and oil, which can help make up for it." Miss Jia, a white-collar worker, said.
At present, the price of domestic edible oil is constantly increasing, and some neighbors have reported that the price increase of soybean oil and sunflower oil on the market has reached a new record, and some of them have increased by more than 20%. The reporter observed that the edible oil products in online and offline channels There are discounts, but the margin of discount has "shrinked", and many are even sold at the original price without any form of gift bundling.
"The current rise in edible oil prices is inseparable from changes in the global situation," said Huang Hanquan, director and researcher of the Price and Cost Investigation Center of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Affected by the epidemic, drought in South America and other factors, the production of palm oil in Malaysia, soybean production in Brazil and canola production in Canada have been reduced, resulting in tight global oil supply; superimposed on Indonesia's restrictions on palm oil exports, Argentina's restrictions on soybean oil exports, and the export of sunflower oil in the Black Sea region This further exacerbated the tight supply of edible oil in the world; coupled with international capital speculation, high global shipping costs and other factors, the global edible oil price continued to rise, which further raised the cost of imports.
Huang Hanquan believes that although some domestic edible oil prices have risen recently, the supply and demand situation is generally stable, and there is a possibility of a correction in edible oil prices.
First, domestic consumption of edible oil is dominated by soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil. The rising prices of palm oil, sunflower oil and other products have little impact on the household edible oil market; second, it is expected that the soybean planting area in the United States will increase this year, and the market price is expected to rise. Limited.
With the continuous progress of the soybean harvest in South America and the increase in the market supply, the international soybean price is likely to pull back; thirdly, domestic soybean oil crops are expanded this year, and the supply of domestic soybean oilseeds is expected to increase; The pursuit of nutrition has gradually reduced the demand for edible oil.
Some industry analysts and judgments believe that the increase in domestic edible oil will still be "more moderate" and will be controlled within a certain range.
"Last year, the price of edible oil in my country rose by 8.6%, which is far lower than the increase of 65.8% in the global edible oil." An industry source said.
The price of live pigs has risen for four weeks in a row, or it may return to shock and consolidation
Lean meat is 30 yuan/catties, pig trotters 25 yuan/catties, pig feet 23 yuan/catties... On May 9, the latest price announced by a pork stall in Guangzhou Liede Market.
"The price of hairy pigs has risen for nearly a month." Lai Xinyu, the owner of the hairy pig stall in Sports East Market, told reporters that the current purchase price of domestic pigs and hairy pigs has risen to 10 yuan/catties, an increase of nearly 2 per kg from a month ago. Yuan.
"Because most of the local pigs sold in our stalls are local pigs, the prices are relatively stable and the increase is not too large. However, the price of lean pigs sold in other stalls from North China, Shandong and other places is relatively large." Lai Xinyu said that if the price of pigs continues to rise in the future, he will have to raise the retail price.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 6, compared with mid-April, the latest price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.6 yuan/kg over the previous period and a month-on-month increase of 12.3%.
Looking back at the data, the price of live pigs has risen for four consecutive periods since late March. Specifically, in late March, early April, mid-April and late April, the prices rose by 0.3 yuan/kg, 0.3 yuan/kg, and 0.5 yuan respectively. Yuan/kg and 1.6 Yuan/kg.
Talking about the reasons supporting the rebound in pig prices, Qin Duogui, an agricultural product analyst at Guosen Futures, said that the main reason is that the pig group's slaughter plan was reduced in April, and the supply pressure was reduced month-on-month.
Previously, the market had certain optimistic expectations for pig prices in the second and third quarters. The rebound in pig prices further stimulated the industry’s secondary fattening and active slaughtering psychology, resulting in an enlarged stage supply and demand mismatch, which in turn triggered pigs Prices continued to rise.
Will pig prices continue to rise in the future?
Zhuochuang Information believes that after the unexpected adjustment in April, the mentality of the live pig market may gradually return to rationality in May, the rhythm of live pig slaughtering may be accelerated in the first half of the year, and the price of live pigs may be slightly adjusted.
In the mid-to-late period, the market supply may be relatively tight, driving up pig prices.
From the perspective of the market as a whole, the overall average price of live pigs in May may be higher than the level in April, but the sharp rise and fall may be reduced, and the market price adjustment may return to rationality.
High grain prices stimulate the uptrend in the seed industry, and wheat prices are expected to stabilize
According to data from Flush, on May 9, the growth of the planting and forestry sectors occupied the third place in the A-share industry sector, among which Yongan Forestry, Wanxiang Denong, Fujian Jinsen and many other stocks had their daily limit, Xuerong Bio, Wanchen Bio, Individual stocks such as Agricultural Development Seed Industry rose more than 5%.
In the context of the current rising global food prices, the performance of seed companies has been outstanding.
The reporter noticed that in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue and profits of many seed companies increased significantly. Among the genetically modified stocks, the first-quarter net profit of Nongfa Seed Industry and Quanyin Hi-Tech increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. Xin'an shares, Wanxiang Denong, The net profit of Batian shares doubled year-on-year, and the net profit of Denghai Seed Industry and Longping Hi-Tech increased by 77% and 34% respectively.
Guosen Securities analyzed that it is expected that the high boom in domestic corn, wheat and other grain prices is expected to continue in 2022. In 2021, there will be problems such as late sowing and low germination rate in the main wheat producing areas in winter, and wheat production may decrease in 2022. Due to the existence of wheat and corn In substitution relationship, corn prices are also expected to strengthen.
The seed industry will see an upward trend in the next 2-3 years, and under the stimulation of high grain prices, farmers' demand for branded seeds is much better than that of the industry, and the volume and price of leading companies will rise.
It is worth noting that since 2022, under the influence of multiple factors, the price of wheat has continued to rise, the price center of gravity has risen as a whole, and the price of flour has risen.
Due to the abundant wheat stocks in the country, "you have grain in your hands, and you don't panic."
With the successive listing of new season wheat, market participants believe that wheat prices are also expected to stabilize.