"It is impossible to say that the inventory pressure is not too big." Zhou Ying (pseudonym), a Yanghe dealer in a city in the Yangtze River Delta, told The Paper that affected by the epidemic, sales have been sluggish for half a year, and there are still about 10 million yuan in inventory.
On May 9, the surging news reporter interviewed a number of liquor dealers and found that behind the prosperity of liquor companies' performance in the first quarter, there may be hidden worries of overstocking and poor sales.
Li Gang (pseudonym), who made Jinsha sauce wine and Huaizhuang wine investment in Henan, still has more than 1 million yuan in inventory, but "because of the impact of the epidemic, many terminals have not opened. The sales in the first quarter were not very smooth. "
"We don't have much inventory, and (manufacturers) have to fight as much as they want. The impact of the epidemic is not very big." Xiao Qiang (pseudonym), a distributor of Shanxi Fenjiu in Guangdong, said that brands with good market acceptance have not been greatly affected. .
"Consumption in the second half of last year (compared to the second half of 2020) dropped by 20%-30%." Wang Peng (pseudonym), who specializes in group buying of Gujing tribute wine, pointed out that the epidemic has little impact on high-end wine, and liquor consumed by the public is still affected by influence.
According to statistics from the Zhongtai Securities Research Report, in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of the liquor segment was 112.8 billion yuan, an increase of 19.4% over the same period last year.
The annual and quarterly performance of a number of listed liquor companies has hit record highs, and the growth rate is also setting new records.
Tens of millions of stocks are "unsellable", and some products are "not enough to sell"
Zhou Ying is a Yanghe dealer in an urban area in the Yangtze River Delta. She has an inventory of about 10 million yuan worth of goods in her hands. There are products of all grades.
"(Inventory) is definitely more than before. (Because of) the impact of the epidemic, there has been no sales for half a year."
In fact, it is not uncommon for the inventory to be overstocked, and "not being able to sell" is the most worrying thing for wine merchants.
"Everyone will have a backlog of (inventory), and under normal circumstances (sales) are good, but now because of the epidemic, (many places) are not very good and can't sell, what should I do if there are no consumers?" Maotai, Wuliangye, Liu Yang (pseudonym), the Henan distributor of Shanxi Fenjiu, has repeatedly mentioned that if people cannot move, even the best-selling wine cannot be sold.
Almost every dealer mentioned to The Paper reporters that sales were not very good, or that they felt a drop in consumption.
Liu Yang said that in the first quarter of this year, even with the blessing of the Spring Festival, the traditional peak season of liquor, the sales situation was "not very good".
Li Gang, who has been engaged in liquor investment promotion since 2008, is not optimistic about the current liquor consumption.
"The terminal sales in Henan are generalized, and many terminal points below are not open."
Li Gang's inventory is still about 1 million yuan, which is higher than in previous years.
Li Gang recalled the situation of wine merchants pressing stock around 2013. He pointed out that the inventory was relatively large at that time, but the market consumption at that time was still "positive and upward", and now "consumption is declining".
Regional wine companies are also facing the problem of "not being able to sell".
Wang Peng, a group buyer of Huijiu’s leading Gujing tribute wine, sells directly to consumers.
According to his observations, starting from the second half of 2021, the consumption volume and consumption level have both declined, and the consumption of products has dropped by 20%-30% compared with the same period in 2020.
"There are about 300 pieces (in stock), and there are not as many stocks in stock, but they are sold slowly."
Of course, not all dealers have inventory pressure, and some dealers said that the products are "not enough to sell".
Xiao Qiang specializes in mid-to-high-end products of Shanxi Fenjiu such as blue and white series and 1915 Panama in Guangdong. "(manufacturer) is that (dealer) can order as much as he wants, but he doesn't say that (dealer) is required to stock up first, and sometimes there are not enough products. Sell."
Xiao Qiang said that the market acceptance of Shanxi Fenjiu has risen rapidly in the past two years, and some product distributors "do not necessarily give as much as you want (manufacturer)".
High-end products are less affected by the epidemic, and low-end wine cannot run
In the sluggish environment of the terminal market, the mid-to-high-end products of famous wines have relatively stronger anti-risk capabilities.
"Although high-end consumption has an impact, the sales of high-end wine will increase because of the relatively high unit price." Li Gang once represented Wuliangye's investment in products. He said that the high-end products of famous wine are mainly sold through channels such as group procurement, gift giving and sponsorship, etc. The impact of the epidemic is less.
Wang Peng also pointed out that high-end liquor is mainly used for gifts and entertainment, and is less affected by the epidemic, but the epidemic still has a certain impact on liquor products consumed by the public.
Under the epidemic, the tricks that once relied on the volume of low-end products to support performance may "fail".
"The market's recognition, including its sales, has declined." Li Gang pointed out that the consumer group of low-end products is wider, but now the consumption has decreased. He believes that liquor is not just needed for consumption, and low-end products can't move much. The root cause is that consumption cannot increase.
There are also a group of new dealers who are in a serious situation.
Xiao Qiang revealed that in the past two years, there have been many emerging liquor brands that are "sauce-flavored".
Li Gang also said that there are many new dealers emerging now. They have never been in this business before, and they have invested a lot of money.
The research report of Sinolink Securities on May 8 pointed out that the restrictions on consumption scenarios and the reduction in the flow of personnel between regions have an impact on the consumption of liquor.
The research report believes that at present, wine companies generally control the pace of delivery, and the periodic demand fluctuations in the off-season in the second quarter have limited impact. Guojin Securities judges that the fundamentals will improve under the subsequent recovery of demand.
It is worth noting that due to the early Spring Festival this year, a number of liquor companies significantly increased contract liabilities in the fourth quarter of last year, and recognized some revenue in the first quarter of 2022.
To a certain extent, contract liabilities represent the ability of the industry to generate revenue in the future.
The research report of Zhongtai Securities on May 9 pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, due to the imminent arrival of the traditional off-season and the impact of the epidemic on logistics and transportation, the growth rate of contract liabilities in the liquor sector was -38.66% month-on-month, the lowest level in the past two years.
However, according to historical data, the amount of industry contract liabilities will increase quarter by quarter, and Zhongtai Securities believes that the full-year expectations for the liquor sector are still improving.
The Paper reporter Wang Qiwen