The Federal Minister of Economics seems pretty proud these days when he talks about the planned ban on imports of Russian oil.

For a long time Germany was seen as a brake here, now the government has cleared the way for an EU embargo.

Robert Habeck proudly announces that the Russian share of German oil imports has already fallen from 35 to 12 percent.

Sebastian Balzter

Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.

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Ralph Bollman

Correspondent for economic policy and deputy head of business and “Money & More” for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper in Berlin.

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The twelve percent stand for the refinery in Schwedt, which is more than half owned by the Russian state-owned company Rosneft and which supplies north-eastern Germany and parts of western Poland with petrol, diesel, kerosene and other petroleum products.

Habeck also believes that this problem can be solved.

"It's going to be bumpy there," he added earlier in the week.

"We cannot guarantee that the supply will always be guaranteed."

Now the question arises: what does "lumpy" mean?

Hans-Joachim Rühlemann is the head of the North-East Association of Garages and Petrol Stations.

The association represents around 300 gas station tenants in Berlin and in the new federal states.

"I'm afraid there will be vacancies," says Rühlemann.

He sees an economy of scarcity, especially in Brandenburg and Berlin, which is hardly known in Germany: Drivers would no longer be able to get fuel at some gas stations because the goods would then no longer be available everywhere in the desired quantities.

"The transition period will not be enough to solve all technical and logistical problems," fears the gas station lobbyist.

Diesel in particular could still become scarce because many households are currently stocking up on heating oil, which is based on the same precursors

No lack of oil

How bad it gets depends on a number of factors.

First of all, the federal government no longer believes in the theory that the refinery in Schwedt would have to shut down operations at all in the event of an embargo.

That's why Habeck announced his change of course in the Polish capital of Warsaw, because he had found a way out with his Polish neighbor: in addition to a pipeline from the port of Rostock, which could cover up to 60 percent of Schwedter's crude oil needs, there would also be a pipeline from Gdansk to disposal.

However, Warsaw does not want to supply any oil to a Russian state-owned company.

That means: Rosneft would have to be out of the game first.

The government is now quite confident that this will succeed.

Exactly how, nobody wants to and can say.

It also depends on the behavior of the management, on the minority shareholders Shell and Eni, on possible new investors - and on the question of how long Rosneft can hold out at all if Russian deliveries are stopped by the state.

In the event of bankruptcy or the sale of critical infrastructure, the Ministry of Economics, which recently blocked the sale of further shares in Rosneft, already has far-reaching options.

Next week the Bundestag intends to pass an amendment to the Energy Security Act

with the help of which the federal government could even expropriate the refinery in an emergency.

The law is expected to come into force in early June.