The highly sought-after new energy car market seems to be at the point of remodeling.

  According to the data from the China Passenger Transport Association, the A00 class accounted for 32% of the pure electric market in March, the A0 class accounted for 15%, and the proportion of miniature electric vehicles was still relatively strong. Specifically, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has a total of 41,980 vehicles. In addition, new energy cars such as QQ Ice Cream, Benben E-Star and Leapmotor T03 are also in the list of TOP 15 new energy cars.

  Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Committee, believes that the proportion of new energy vehicles below 80,000 yuan is relatively strong, the proportion of A00-class new energy vehicles is still relatively strong, and the trend of A00-A0-class low-end new energy vehicles is relatively strong. .

  But there are always thorns behind the flowers.

A few days ago, Changan New Energy announced to suspend its Benben E-Star national version model orders; it is reported that Benben E-Star has a total of 9 models, of which the national version model has the lowest price, ranging from 29,800 yuan to 43,800 yuan.

In fact, Benben E-Star is not alone in suspending orders. In February this year, Euler White Cat and Black Cat also announced that they would stop accepting orders.

  The industry believes that in the face of multiple factors such as rising prices of upstream raw materials and chips, new lows in points transaction prices, continuous decline in new energy subsidies, and consumption upgrades, the A00-A0-class micro electric vehicle market is under obvious pressure, or has reached a serious level. when plastic.

It is the easiest to enter the market, but it is difficult to bypass the cost barrier

  It has become an industry consensus that A00-class pure electric vehicles with price advantages can enter the market as soon as possible and drive the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.

  In 2021, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV will directly help SAIC-GM-Wuling take the second place in retail sales of new energy manufacturers with a total sales volume of 431,130 units with 395,451 units.

Changan New Energy Vehicle uses Benben E-Star to open up the market. In 2021, Changan New Energy Vehicle will sell 100,000 units, of which Changan Benben E-Star, a miniature electric vehicle, will reach 76,000 units, accounting for 76,000 units of Changan New Energy’s total sales. In the first quarter of this year, the sales volume of Benben E-Star continued to rise, exceeding 85%.

  Not only that, the deployment of miniature electric vehicles can relieve the pressure of double points for car companies. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling scored 440,000 points with Wuling Hongguang MINI EV last year. While solving the double-point gap, it can also sell excess new energy points to gain profits. .

  However, there are also opponents of the development of micro electric vehicles.

  Market research firm IHS Markit predicts that the price of cathode materials such as battery-grade cobalt, nickel sulfate, and lithium carbonate will continue to rise sharply. It is expected that the price increase of lithium batteries may reach 13%-15%.

The ORA brand has revealed that the production cost of the three-electric system of the black cat and the white cat accounts for about 55%-60% of the cost of the whole vehicle.

Rising battery prices have further added to the cost pressure on micro electric vehicles.

  Not only that, according to this year's subsidy policy, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. Roughly calculated, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a battery life of 300km-400km will be reduced by more than 300 yuan, including Euler White Cat, Black Cat A0-class models such as Mao and Leapmotor T03 are all listed here.

  China Automobile Data predicts that the price forecast range of the points transaction year (January-September 2022) is 1,000 yuan-1,400 yuan/minute; compared with last year's forecast and the actual transaction average price, it will continue to fall; and the enterprise level predicts that the actual points are traded. The price is likely to fall below 1,000 yuan. Dong Yudong, CEO of ORA brand, once said that the transaction price of points has been reduced to 500-800 yuan in early 2022.

  The more the car is sold, the more losses will become a hurdle that is difficult for micro electric vehicles to bypass.

The current price of A00-class new energy vehicles is less than 80,000 yuan, and the price of A0-class new energy vehicles is about 100,000 yuan. A car can only make 89 yuan.

  "The increase in battery prices and the decline in subsidies have brought a cost vacancy of more than 7,000 yuan. In addition, the price of a single carbon credit has plummeted from more than 2,000 to several hundred yuan. According to this method, a car will lose 17,000 yuan." Dong Yudong, CEO of ORA brand, once said.

  "Car companies can set up differentiated brands to make corresponding adjustments, which can resolve the impact of the low price of micro electric vehicles on brand value." Cui Dongshu said.

"Although the price of points has dropped this year, the contribution of micro electric vehicles is not only new energy points, but also contributes to the reduction of fuel consumption of enterprises, which has a huge and stable role in the development of enterprises."

The market is under pressure, is new energy car the future?

  "For A00-level new energy micro-cars, the vast majority of customers are located in counties or villages and towns below fourth- and fifth-tier cities, and they are very price-sensitive. Such vehicles are maintained by low total cost of ownership (TCO). Competitiveness, the price increase will definitely have a big impact on the sales of these vehicles." Tian Yongqiu said.

  At the same time, there has also been some progress in the "regularization" of low-speed electric vehicles.

Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Technical Conditions for Pure Electric Passenger Vehicles", adding technical requirements for miniature low-speed pure electric passenger vehicles; the national mandatory standard "Technical Conditions for Four-wheel Low-speed Electric Vehicles" also proposed that low-speed electric vehicles will be allowed in used in a specific area.

If low-speed electric vehicles are reborn, they will inevitably crowd out the market for A00-class electric vehicles.

  The industry believes that despite the current rapid growth in sales of micro electric vehicles, the entire industry needs to be transformed.

"It's time to reshape the A00-class electric vehicle market; we hope that China's auto industry will develop in a benign direction, that is, to achieve a rise in the waist." Dong Yudong believes, "Even if you are an A00-class vehicle, you must abandon the low-price competition strategy in the past. , moving closer to a higher technical content.”

  From the perspective of the layout of car companies, Leapmotor announced that it has entered the 2.0 strategic stage, and Nezha will also enter the high-end electric vehicle market.

Cui Dongshu predicts that the growth rate of A00-class new energy vehicles will be around 60% in 2022, and the increase in the new energy vehicle market will be mainly reflected in the A-class and B-class car markets represented by BYD.

  Ren Wanfu, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that A00-class and A0-class new energy vehicle products will gradually develop from functional products to boutique products. This trend is consistent with traditional fuel vehicles; the mainstream market of new energy vehicles will focus on A in the future. grades and B grades.

  Tian Yongqiu has the same view. He believes that in the long run, when the income level of people in the county economy gradually increases and the replacement of old scooters is gradually completed, the share of small cars will gradually shrink. The market structure will gradually change to an olive-shaped structure with two small ends and a large middle.

  However, in Cui Dongshu's view, A00-class and A0-class miniature electric vehicles still have a good development trend. On the one hand, the consumption of middle-aged and elderly consumers is relatively pragmatic, and on the other hand, the consumption demand of young families' second car is also miniaturized. From the perspective of micro electric vehicles themselves, they are suitable for personal travel and can effectively tap personal mobility needs; in addition, domestic micro electric vehicles can currently compete with Japanese small fuel vehicles in the Southeast Asian market, or there is a possibility of substitution.

  Cui Dongshu said, "The mainstream market for new energy vehicles should be a diversified market. The A00-class fuel vehicle market, which has shrunk in the past, has regained its vitality under the trend of electrification."

  Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Wang Linlin