Real estate credit risk is generally controllable
The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held recently emphasized that it is necessary to effectively manage and control key risks and keep the bottom line of no systemic risks.
We must adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
At present, due to the exposure of individual large-scale real estate enterprises, the real estate credit risk has increased.
The recently disclosed annual reports of listed banks show that as of the end of December 2021, the real estate non-performing loan balances of the five major state-owned banks have all increased compared with the end of the previous year, and some banks have increased significantly.
Heads of several banks said that the current risks are localized and staged, and the real estate credit risk is generally controllable.
Multiple factors lead to an increase in adverse events
The data shows that as of the end of December 2021, the real estate non-performing loan balances of the five major banks have increased compared with the end of the previous year. The real estate non-performing loan ratios of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank were 4.79%, 3.39%, 5.05%, 1.85%, an increase of 2.47, 1.58, 0.37 and 0.54 percentage points respectively over the end of the previous year.
"In the process of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, it is difficult to avoid the release of risks from local areas and individual customers." Cheng Yuanguo, chief risk officer of CCB, said that local risks will not affect the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.
First, the proportion of real estate loans has dropped to a low level.
"The proportion of ICBC's real estate loans has dropped to 6.5%, and the real estate credit risk will not have a significant impact on the bank's asset quality," said Zhang Wenwu, vice president of ICBC.
Secondly, the risk offset preparation has been relatively sufficient.
As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the provision coverage ratio of banking financial institutions was 199.5%.
That is to say, if there is a non-performing loan of 1 yuan, the bank has prepared 1.995 yuan to hedge, and the provision coverage ratio of some listed banks is as high as 300% or more.
The reason for the rise in credit risk lies in the explicit risk of individual large real estate companies.
Since the second half of 2021, the profits of some housing companies have declined, the capital chain has tightened, and debt defaults have occurred frequently.
In March of this year, individual housing companies could not even disclose their annual reports as scheduled.
"The loans of a few large risk households have deteriorated, leading to an increase in the risk of real estate development loans." Zhang Wenwu said.
Due to the dangers of housing enterprises, some banks have shrunk their credit, which aggravated the operating difficulties of housing enterprises to a certain extent, and further raised the risk.
In response to the short-term overreaction of banks, the regulatory authorities have corrected the deviation in a timely manner. At present, real estate development loans have gradually returned to stability.
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, the average monthly increase in real estate development loans nationwide in the first quarter of this year was about 150 billion yuan.
In addition, banks' stricter standards for identifying non-performing loans have also boosted risk figures.
The reporter learned from the banking and insurance regulatory bureaus in many places that in order to ensure the real and comprehensive exposure of risks, the criteria for identifying non-performing loans in many places have changed from "90 days overdue as non-performing" to "60 days overdue as non-performing". 30-day loans are counted as non-performing.
Affected by this, some previously concealed risks have surfaced, and the number of non-performing loans in real estate has risen.
Personal housing loans are less risky
At present, the balance of personal housing loans in my country is about 46 trillion yuan.
Personal housing loans have a longer term, mostly 20 or even 30 years.
Although the loan period is long, the credit risk of personal housing loans in my country is relatively low, and the non-performing loan ratio has been maintained at around 0.3% for a long time.
"The main source of repayment for personal housing loans is the borrower's monthly income. Therefore, asset quality is closely related to employment and income, and is less affected by house price fluctuations. This is the difference between my country and many countries." The central bank. Zou Lan, director of the Department of Financial Markets, said.
"From the practice of large banks in early 2020, in the early stage of the epidemic, the non-performing rate of personal housing loans rose from 0.29% to 0.37%." Zou Lan said that after the implementation of the deferred repayment policy, the loan quality has generally remained stable; as the epidemic eased, Residents' income gradually recovered, and loan repayments soon returned to normal.
As of the end of December 2020, the non-performing rate of personal housing loans had returned to the level of 0.29%.
At present, affected by the spread of the domestic epidemic, the income of some residents fluctuates, and they may not be able to repay their mortgages on time.
In this regard, many financial institutions such as state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks have made it clear that customers who meet the conditions can apply for deferred mortgage repayments.
Risk resolution cannot be relaxed
Although the real estate credit risk is generally controllable, the work of risk prevention and mitigation cannot be relaxed for a moment.
"Prevention and control should be more proactive." Bank of China Risk Director Liu Jiandong said that the operating conditions of some real estate companies are still uncertain.
"Relieving the tight capital chain of housing enterprises requires coordinated efforts on the supply side and the demand side." Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said that from the supply side, real estate development loans have basically returned to stability, and the recovery of bank loans is accelerating. ; From the demand side, banks in many places have lowered mortgage interest rates, and the gradual release of demand from buyers will help stabilize the overall real estate market.
One of the effective ways to resolve risks is to promote mergers and acquisitions between real estate companies under the premise of marketization and rule of law.
"Domestic high-quality real estate companies attach great importance to this work, and have carried out a large number of due diligence investigations. I believe that they will achieve obvious results in the future." said Zou Jimin, general manager of the Risk Management Department of Industrial Bank.
Previously, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in M&A Financial Services for Risk Disposal Projects of Key Real Estate Enterprises", encouraging financial institutions to support risk resolution and industry clearing in a market-oriented manner.
The reporter learned that a number of banks have arranged special quotas, and are carrying out M&A loan business in a stable and orderly manner, promoting the decoupling of full-value projects from problem developers, and reducing hidden risks in the "guaranteed delivery of buildings".
Guo Ziyuan