Shake the financial circle!

The 70 billion fund boss has resigned. This year, many star fund managers "choose the time" to run away. Is the bull market coming?

  When they fell to the "bottom" in the eyes of the fund, star fund managers began to "time-select" their careers.

  In the early morning of May 7, E Fund Company announced that Lin Sen, a star fund manager who managed 70 billion funds, resigned.

In 2019, when the stock market rebounded, Lin Sen used 30% of his stock positions to outperform many high-position fund managers.

Lin Sen is another celebrity public fundraiser who has left this year after Xiao Xiao, Dong Chengfei, Zhou Yingbo, and Zhao Yi. Most of these star public fund managers who have left choose to set up private equity funds.

  Industry insiders pointed out that the resignation of star fund managers often has the characteristics of "time selection", that is, they choose to leave at the bottom of the market to enter private equity, and issue their own private equity fund products at a low market position to obtain better career opportunities.

In the past, when the market was low, there were many star fund managers who collectively turned private. One of the fund managers who left at the end of 2014 said more bluntly in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times. Brokerage China. The time to choose to leave is to be optimistic about the beginning of the bull market.

Accurate stock selection fund boss has left

  In the early morning of May 7, E Fund Company announced that E Fund repaid the fund manager Lin Sen’s resignation with peace of mind.

Lin Sen is a well-known fund manager in the industry. He manages several fund products of E Fund Company, with a total fund management scale of about 70 billion.

  Lin Sen's departure has already been revealed. E Fund Fund announced on April 30 that it has hired Li Zhongyang, a fund manager, to jointly manage the E Fund Relief Fund with Lin Sen and others.

  Lin Sen's representative works are E Fund Ruicheng Flexibility Fund and E Fund Relief Fund. The former achieved nearly 2 times the investment return within five years of Lin Sen's management, and the latter achieved 1.3 times of return within six years of Lin Sen's management. .

Considering that the E Fund Anxiety Reward Fund is a hybrid fund with partial debt, the 1.3 times return obtained within six years is actually quite amazing.

  Securities Times. The Chinese reporter of securities companies noticed that from 2016 to 2021, the E Fund Reward Fund managed by Lin Sen achieved positive returns in five years, including the ups and downs of the market in 2016 and 2017.

In 2018, the average return of hybrid funds in the whole market was a loss of 14.23%, but the E Fund Anxiety Reward Fund managed by Lin Sen only lost 5.85% of its income in that year. At that time, the stock position of this fund managed by Lin Sen was 29.48% at the end of 2018. %.

  The most important thing is that when this hybrid fund with a very low stock position enters a market where the stock market is recovering in 2019, the positive return obtained by the fund is no less than those with a stock position as high as 70% or 80% or more. fund products.

Wind data shows that the investment return of E Fund Reward Fund in 2019 was 40.68%, ahead of the average return of hybrid funds of 32%, and significantly outperforming the average return of all funds in the market by 22%.

Surprisingly, the E Fund Relief Fund, which received 40.68% of this annual return, had only 31% of its stock position as of the end of 2019.

  That is to say, in 2019 when the stock market was strong, Lin Sen, a star fund manager, only used half of the stock positions of many fund managers to beat the fund managers with high stock positions in the annual performance.

Industry insiders believe that to a large extent, this shows that fund managers have a strong ability to discriminate and judge individual stock selection, enabling them to defeat high-position funds with lower stock positions.

  Looking back at the market in the first quarter of this year, Lin Sen pointed out in his fund report that from the perspective of the market microstructure, the more extreme differentiation in 2021 has led to a certain amount of transaction congestion in the equity market in some industries, which also led to the equity market in the first quarter. Great volatility in the market.

Historically, portfolio volatility has been reduced in most market environments through diversification.

However, during the systematic downturn of the market in the first quarter, most of the stocks with which they held positions experienced relatively obvious adjustments.

Pan-manufacturing stocks fell more sharply due to concerns over rising raw material costs.

Public offering stars leave their jobs and are good at "time selection"

  It is worth noting that the departure of star fund managers usually has the characteristics of "time selection".

  A person from a fund company who is familiar with the characteristics of fund managers' resignation has bluntly told Securities Times. A Chinese reporter from a securities company that fund managers who switch from public to private pay great attention to the timing of resignation and the trend performance of the A-share market. , which is the key to business success.

  At the end of 2014, a large public fund company in South China reported that many well-known fund managers were about to leave. The company's research director resigned in October 2014, and in November 2014, he founded his own private equity fund company, which launched Private product.

The fund company boss once told the Securities Times. Securities China reporter that the departure of the public fund is optimistic about the starting point of a new round of A-share bull market, which is the main driving force for him to choose to leave.

  In fact, at the end of the year, it was also reported that another investment boss who served as the investment director of the large public fund would leave. Three months later, in January 2015, the investment director of the public fund was confirmed to leave. The destination is also to set up his own private equity fund company, and also shared the A-share bull market in the first half of 2015.

  Therefore, staying in public funds during the bull market and leaving for private equity at the bottom has almost become a routine for public fund managers to leave. In the eyes of market participants, this precise "timing" also often conveys the trend of the A-share market in the next stage. good confidence.

The "bottom" of public fundraising bosses frequently appears to be escaping, which implies positive signals

  In fact, after the market slumped sharply in this round, many star fund managers have announced their resignation to enter private equity funds, which to some extent strengthened the judgment of these public fund managers on the "bottom" of the market.

  At the end of March this year, Zhou Yingbo, a top fund manager who had just officially announced his departure from China Europe Fund, has established himself in private equity funds.

According to public information, Zhou Yingbo appeared on the shareholder list of a private equity fund management company named Shanghai Ocean Boat and served as the legal representative and chairman.

  In February this year, Dong Cheng, a top fund manager in the public offering industry, informally joined Ruijun Asset, a private equity firm worth tens of billions of dollars.

After joining Ruijun Assets, Dong Chengfei will issue his first private equity product and subscribe for no less than 40 million yuan.

On May 6, Ruijun Assets announced that Dong Chengfei, a partner of the company, will use personal funds of not less than 40 million yuan to subscribe for the series of Ruijun Chengfei products that will be raised on May 9, 2022.

  Xiao Xiao, general manager and fund manager of the equity investment department of Baoying Fund, whose performance ranks second in the market in 2021, also announced his resignation in February this year.

Xiao Xiao also revealed in an interview with Securities Times. Securities China reporters that the next stop will also be private equity funds.

  It is worth noting that Xiao Xiao, who has become famous in the market with his runner-up performance in 2021, seems to be copying the success of his former colleague and fund manager Zhang Xiaoren. The Baoying Core Advantage Fund managed by Zhang Xiaoren has achieved as high as 80% in 2014. Amazing performance, won the championship of all hybrid funds that year.

After that, Zhang Xiaoren chose to leave the market at a low level in 2017 and entered a private equity fund as the chief investment officer. In January this year, the private equity fund founded by the star fund manager and served as the legal representative was officially filed.

  Industry insiders believe that the high probability of Lin Sen's resignation also has the characteristics of "timing", that is, he may make full use of the opportunity at the bottom of the market to start his investment career.

Lin Sen emphasized in the first quarter report that he believes that we should not be pessimistic at this point in time. Although the scope of the epidemic has exceeded our initial expectations, he believes that the epidemic will eventually be brought under control.

In the long run, neither the epidemic nor geopolitics will change the long-term trend of China's manufacturing industry's increasing share of the global supply chain.

  Lin Sen took the auto parts industry as an example. With the development of electrification and intelligence, the overall pattern of the auto industry is expected to be reshaped.

The inherent relationship between traditional OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers is being broken.

Under the new situation where OEMs pay more attention to product iteration speed and cost control, China's component companies are expected to become "water sellers" under the wave of electrification.

Another factor that suppressed manufacturing companies in the first quarter was the sharp rise in the cost side.

Since March, due to the hawkish monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the overall price of global commodities has already declined to a certain extent.

At the same time, a strong dollar is conducive to enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing companies. On the whole, the most difficult time for pan-manufacturing is passing.