The party and the two sessions made heavy voices to boost morale, and the policy to stabilize the property market is expected to continue to be introduced
Curbing the downward trend in real estate is crucial to achieving the goal of steady growth this year.
A few days ago, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee released a strong signal to stabilize the property market, clearly proposing to support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Since then, the Bank and the Two Sessions have made intensive voices, releasing a heavy signal of optimizing real estate credit policies, maintaining stable and orderly real estate financing, and supporting rigid and improved housing demand.
According to the analysis of many experts, these statements all reflect the policy orientation of relevant departments to stabilize the property market.
It is expected that various new policies and supporting contents will be gradually implemented in the real estate field. The real estate market will continue to implement policies based on the city, and continue to relax restrictions on real estate loans and purchases according to the conditions of different regions to meet reasonable rigid and improved needs.
Improve market expectations
Judging from the real estate data in March, the current domestic real estate market data on sales, land acquisition, construction, and completion are still weak.
Against the background of triple pressure, how to stabilize the property market has become the focus of recent market attention.
On April 29, the Politburo meeting proposed that it is necessary to effectively manage and control key risks and keep the bottom line of no systemic risks.
It is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, support localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing needs, optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
On the evening of May 4, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission spoke at the same time to convey the study and implementation of the spirit of the Politburo meeting.
The central bank said that it will implement the prudent management system for real estate finance, optimize real estate credit policies in a timely manner, keep real estate financing stable and orderly, and support rigid and improved housing needs; the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it will actively support real estate corporate bond financing, and study and expand the scope of infrastructure REITs pilot scope. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that it is necessary to urge banking and insurance institutions to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation", implement differentiated housing credit policies according to city-specific policies, support the demand for first and improved housing, and flexibly adjust Personal housing loan repayment plans for people affected by the epidemic.
It is necessary to distinguish between project risks and enterprise group risks, do not blindly withdraw, cut off, or suppress loans, and maintain stable and orderly real estate financing.
In accordance with the principles of marketization and the rule of law, financial services for mergers and acquisitions of key real estate enterprises' risk disposal projects shall be done well.
Li Qilin, director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, said that the pressure on the capital chain faced by real estate companies has not diminished.
With the frequent occurrence of default risk events of housing enterprises, banks' willingness to lend is not high. It can be seen that the year-on-year growth rate of domestic loans in real estate development funds continued to decline. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate in March was -23.5%.
In addition, weak sales have exacerbated the financial pressure on housing companies.
Taking into account factors such as the high proportion of real estate investment, the wide industrial chain affected, and the greater pressure on local finances, curbing the downward trend in real estate is crucial to achieving the goal of stable growth this year.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, emphasized that "housing is not for speculation", but his statement on real estate was more specific and more positive than the previous statement, clearly pointing out that "support local governments to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigidity and improvement Sexual housing needs”, which is further strengthened compared to the previous statement of “meeting the reasonable housing needs of home buyers”
The policy of stabilizing the property market will be implemented frequently
From the perspective of the market, the successive voices of the Bank and the Two Sessions will play a positive role in improving the environment of the real estate market, and policies to stabilize the real estate market may be implemented frequently.
In fact, in the past week, policies to support real estate in various places have been continuously implemented.
On April 29, Lianyungang City issued the "Notice on Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Real Estate Market in Lianyungang City", which expanded the coverage and use of the housing provident fund system, and provided payment subsidies for people with flexible employment; 20% implementation, and guide commercial banks to gradually reduce mortgage interest rates and shorten the approval and lending cycle; in terms of the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, on the basis of strictly implementing the commercial housing pre-sale fund supervision system, explore the use of guarantee methods to release a certain amount of funds for real estate projects construction and operation.
On May 1, Meizhou City, Guangdong Province issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Our City", proposing to reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund loans for second homes from 30% to 20%.
On May 1, Wuxi issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Value-Added Tax Exemption Period for Personal Housing Transfers", which clarified that the value-added tax exemption period for individual housing transfers in urban areas shall be implemented in accordance with national regulations, from 5 years to 2 years.
A series of "city-specific policies" policies have been implemented to boost the "morale" of the property market.
Li Chao predicts that in the future, more first- and second-tier cities will usher in the relaxation of the second housing policy, and the restrictions on purchases and loans are expected to be further relaxed and effectively boost real estate sales.
In terms of liquidity of housing enterprises, the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing is expected to be further relaxed in the future. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Yantai, Nanjing and other cities have gradually relaxed the supervision of pre-sale funds. Come to a larger area of relaxation and improve the cash flow of real estate companies.
Li Qilin also said that in the future, the regulatory standards for pre-sale funds of commercial housing will be appropriately relaxed in cities where conditions permit, which will help housing companies to revitalize their funds, ease their own liquidity pressures, and ensure the normal progress of the construction chain of housing companies.
In addition, the follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the policy on the financing end of housing enterprises.
Although policies have emphasized the need to ensure the reasonable financing needs of housing companies since last year, from the actual data, many housing companies are still under great external financing pressure.
Regarding the repair of the financing chain of housing enterprises, there is still room for optimization of policies such as allowing financial institutions to further meet the normal financing needs of housing enterprises.