Even if the economic outlook has clouded over, the next estimate should see tax revenue exceed the one trillion euro mark for the first time.

Although only at the end of the forecast horizon, this is still astonishing.

In the last pre-corona year 2019, tax revenues scratched the mark of 800 billion euros, after which they fell by 60 billion.

In 2021, the tax authorities were able to return to the level before the pandemic.

But Corona is still not over, and the war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia, is sending energy costs through the roof.

Important supply chains are disrupted.

Nevertheless, government revenue should continue to rise.

And even stronger than previously predicted anyway.

Manfred Schaefers

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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The main reason for the astonishing development is the sharp increase in inflation.

At the same time, this inflates the basis for many a tax, not least for that on turnover.

The Treasury always calculates in nominal values ​​- it becomes a profiteer from inflation if it does not adjust the tax rates regularly and comprehensively.

With a view to income tax, the legislature has reacted to the currency devaluation several times recently with an increase in the basic allowance and a shift in the other key tariff values.

But even that doesn't completely offset inflation unless he tops up all allowances and lump sums as well.

But that rarely happens.

The responsible tax working group will meet again next week to estimate the tax revenue for five years.

For three days, the members will go through the individual tax types.

For three days, from Tuesday to Thursday, they discuss and calculate.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) can then present the result.

Seventeen percent more tax revenue than in the same month last year

In November, tax experts forecast revenue of EUR 848 billion for 2022, which should increase to almost EUR 988 billion by 2026.

Nominal growth (i.e. without factoring out currency depreciation) of 6.4 percent this year and 3.3 percent next year and then 2.6 percent annually was assumed.

The basis for the next estimate by the working group is now the current spring projection.

Here the values ​​are initially 6.3 percent and 5.2 percent, but in the end the earlier expectations will remain.

The appraisers also look closely at recent developments.

This is also impressive.

Tax revenue in March was 17.2 percent higher than in the corresponding month of the previous year.

That speaks for a good result this year.

The spring projection points to a higher volume in the coming year.

Both together would increase the basis for further growth in tax revenues.

With the higher nominal gross domestic product alone and the usual tax rate, the figure for 2026 will be slightly more than one trillion euros.

Planned relief not yet included in estimates

It doesn't have to be as predicted.

Some of the relief planned by the traffic light coalition are still pending.

These are not yet taken into account in the new forecast, since the estimators always calculate on the basis of the applicable laws.

Some of the planned reliefs are only temporary, so their effect in the longer term will be limited.

Another limitation is more important: if the economy develops differently than assumed, every tax estimate loses the foundation on which it stands: less real growth, less inflation, depress tax revenue.

But in the long term the trend is clear: things are going up.

At most, crises have a temporary impact on revenue.

Therefore, one prognosis is certain: if the trillion mark is not taken by 2026, it will be shortly thereafter.

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