According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cement output reached 387 million tons in the first quarter of this year, down 12.1% year-on-year.

Among them, the cement output in March in the traditional peak season was only 187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%.

From the monitoring data of China Cement Association, due to the high cement inventory at the end of the first quarter, it reflects that the actual decline in cement sales is larger than the decline in production.

　　"In the first quarter, the cement industry generally showed the characteristics of 'rising costs, falling demand, and declining efficiency'." Chen Bolin, deputy secretary-general of China Cement Association and president of Digital Cement Network, said that due to the multi-point spread of the epidemic and engineering projects represented by real estate Affected by factors such as the slow recovery of construction, coupled with the current situation of strict control during the epidemic and the overall sluggish market demand, the national cement production in the first quarter saw a sharp decline year-on-year.

At the same time, the sharp rise in coal prices, oil prices and freight costs has led to a significant increase in cement costs.

　　In the first quarter, the overall demand side of the cement industry was sluggish, and the inventory remained at a high level. The national cement storage capacity ratio continued to fluctuate between 60% and 70%.

Chen Bolin introduced that in the first quarter, the national cement inventory rose sharply year-on-year, only a decrease from the first quarter of 2020.

　　Cement inventories rose rapidly, leading to weaker cement prices.

In the first quarter, the national cement price showed the characteristics of high fluctuation and adjustment.

"Since the beginning of this year, the national cement price has continued the trend of falling from the high level in the fourth quarter of last year. With the support of the sharp rise in costs, the price fall has narrowed significantly. Different regions have experienced mixed changes, mainly with shock adjustments." Chen Bolin said.

　　According to the monitoring of Digital Cement Network, the national average price of 42.5 bulk cement in the first quarter was 516 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17%.

Judging from the regional monthly cement price trend, in the first quarter, North China, Northeast China and Northwest China belonged to the off-season of demand. Most of them were in the period of off-peak and kiln shutdown. The production and sales were both weak. The price of cement in the central and southern regions increased slightly year-on-year, but the increase was lower than the increase in costs, and the gross profit margin was even lower than the level of the same period last year; although the price of cement in the southwest region increased significantly year-on-year, the price was the lowest.

　　The sharp rise in cost is one of the main factors affecting the cement revenue level.

"It is understood that the ex-factory price of coal in the mainstream market area has reached 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,600 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 80% year-on-year, which has greatly increased the cost of cement production." Chen Bolin said that the year-on-year increase in the cost of cement per ton exceeded the increase in cement prices. , resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in the gross profit margin per ton of cement. "It is expected that the coal price may have a downward trend in the second quarter, but the overall fluctuation will remain high, which will lead to a further increase in cement prices."

　　Faced with multiple pressures, the decline in both revenue and profit of the cement industry in the first quarter is expected.

A few days ago, listed companies in the cement industry have successively disclosed their first-quarter performance reports.

However, most companies are optimistic about the cement market in the second quarter, saying that the performance is expected to be reversed.

　　Chen Bolin believes that at the beginning of the second quarter, affected by multiple unfavorable factors, the cement market will continue to be severely oversupplied, inventories will continue to rise, and the sales pressure of enterprises will double. In addition, cement enterprises implement off-peak production, the market supply and demand relationship will be reversed, cement prices will rise significantly, and industry benefits will also improve. Cement enterprises must seize the window period when the epidemic is over and seasonal demand in the future, and work together to ensure Only by supplying and increasing efficiency can the annual business target be achieved.”

　　"Faced with the current situation, only by adhering to normalized peak-staggered production can we ensure the effective supply of cement and achieve steady growth in benefits," said Kong Xiangzhong, executive chairman of the China Cement Association. With the development of the industry, it is very important to establish an effective market system with dynamic balance of supply and demand and orderly market competition. The implementation of normalized peak-staggered production in the cement industry across the country is an important institutional arrangement to ensure the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the industry."

　　Zhu Junbi