Diesel and petrol over 2 euros: Oil and petrol are becoming more expensive in anticipation of an EU oil embargo

The effects are not yet huge, but they are noticeable: On Wednesday morning, the price of oil rose in anticipation of an oil embargo against Russia.

Fuel has also become more expensive again.

On average across Germany, both diesel and Super E10 now cost more than 2 euros per liter, as reported by the Internet portal Clever-Tanken.

For Super E10, an average of 2.004 euros per liter is now required, for diesel 2.082 euros.

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in Business.

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A particularly strong price increase in eastern Germany in the delivery area of ​​the Schwedt refinery, which may be expected in the course of the switch from Russian oil to other sources, has not yet been observed: petrol is currently particularly expensive, as is often the case, in the south-west of the republic , for example in Constance.

For crude oil, the OPEC oil cartel wants to decide on Thursday whether and how strongly to react to developments in Russia.

The price of oil has fluctuated over the past few days.

Among other things, the strong dollar and economic concerns about China had weakened him.

The question of how the American central banks decide on further interest rate developments could also have an impact on the price of oil via the dollar and American economic expectations.

On Wednesday morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost $106.12.

That was $1.15 more than the day before.

The price of a barrel of the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety rose by $1.26 to $103.67.

Transitional periods for the oil embargo

Oil prices were boosted by the prospect of an EU embargo on Russian crude.

However, according to a proposal by the EU Commission, general transitional periods are planned.

In addition, the plan will have to be approved by all EU countries, which is uncertain.

According to experts, the medium-term price reaction on the oil markets will depend primarily on whether Russia can sell its oil elsewhere and whether there is sufficient capacity worldwide to replace Russian oil that fails.

"German drivers will have to adjust to higher prices in May, or at least to a similarly high level as in April," said Steffen Bock, head of the Clever Tanken Internet platform.

From June onwards, the energy tax is to be reduced for three months.

The petrol price is to be reduced by 29.55 cents per liter and diesel by 14.04 cents.

The catch: You don't know how much the tax cut will affect consumers.

Manuel Frondel, petrol specialist at the RWI research institute in Essen, thinks that an oil embargo could make the petrol price “jump” again.

However, mainly for a short time, "it shouldn't be permanent".

The ADAC also argues that Germany has already significantly reduced its oil imports from Russia, from 34 to 12 percent of imports.

What can still be changed now are, above all, the Russian deliveries to the Schwedt refinery in Brandenburg, which has so far been supplied from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline.

Taking this as an opportunity to increase petrol prices throughout Germany would be exaggerated, according to the ADAC: "In eastern Germany, this could lead to regionally higher petrol prices during the adjustment process in areas that have previously been supplied by Schwedt."

The Bundeskartellamt is currently in the process of examining more closely whether the mineral oil companies are possibly passing on rising prices to motorists very quickly, but only with a certain delay when it comes to price reductions.

The ADAC had often complained about this.

Cartel Office President Andreas Mundt has at least let it be known that "the selling prices of the refineries and the prices at the gas station have diverged significantly in the past few weeks".

In other words, it could be that the mineral oil companies seized the opportunity to expand their margins on the grounds of the "Ukraine war".

This could now become relevant again if the oil embargo should be taken as an opportunity to raise prices.

This is now to be clarified in more detail in an accelerated investigation, an “ad hoc sector analysis”.

It will take a while until the results are available, according to the cartel office.

Opec advises on Thursday

Whether crude oil will become more expensive overall as a result of the oil embargo is not certain, but it is possible.

The oil cartel OPEC wants to advise on Thursday how much it will expand its own oil production.

However, the free capacities are not excessively large, says Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst at the Swiss bank UBS.

He thinks that if the sanctions mean that Russia doesn't simply deliver all of its oil to China or India, but instead has to restrict its production, this should cause the price to rise due to a lower supply on the world market.

The technical conversion of oil deliveries in Germany could also cause certain costs that temporarily make oil more expensive in this country.

Overall, however, Russia had not "given away" its deliveries to Germany, as the ADAC put it;

Oil was delivered close to the world market price.

Recently, however, Russian oil transported via tankers has traded at a discount.

But that was due to the sanctions - and therefore does not have a direct impact on the costs associated with the embargo.