Ten billion capital ebbs, Maoxiang liquor is swimming naked?

　　Along the Chishui River all the way to the west, there are countless winery signs and specialty stores on both sides.

Looking around, layers of billboards are placed in the air, here is the "capital of sauce and wine" - Renhuai, Guizhou.

Chishui River is named for its high sand content and reddish-yellow water color.

This is not only a hero river that has witnessed the Red Army of workers and peasants crossing Chishui, but also a river of fine wine that has created countless miracles of winemaking.

　　In recent years, the sauce wine industry has developed rapidly.

According to a research report from Everbright Securities, from 2017 to 2020, the annual compound growth rate of sauce wine revenue reached 13.15%, much higher than the 1.78% compound growth rate of the liquor industry as a whole.

　　Since 2020, tens of billions of capital have poured into Renhuai in order to get a share of the sauce and wine market.

According to the company’s data, as of now, there are 14,447 wine-related companies in Renhuai, of which more than 8,000 have been added since 2020. In other words, more than half of the local wine companies in Renhuai were established within the past two years. of.

　　Under the fire of cooking oil, the sauce and wine market is full of chaos.

In August last year, this liquor feast came to an abrupt end. From capital to market, from enterprises to distributors, everything related to sauce and liquor seemed to have calmed down.

"Their starting point is wrong"

　　The popularity of the sauce wine market in recent years has surprised Qiu Shuyi, dean of the School of Brewing and Food Engineering at Guizhou University.

As the director of the Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Fermentation Engineering and Biopharmaceuticals, he interacts a lot with Guizhou wine companies.

He gave an example to "China News Weekly" that in 2021, when Guizhou Jinshajiao Liquor Co., Ltd. ("Jinsha Liquor") was established for the 70th anniversary, he was invited to attend the celebration.

"I learned that the company's sales in 2021 will reach 6.066 billion yuan, while in 2020 it will only be more than 2 billion yuan."

　　Jinsha Wine Industry is located in Jinsha County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province. Public data shows that in recent years, the company has grown rapidly at the rate of "rebuilding another Jinsha" every year.

From 2018 to 2020, the sales revenue of Jinsha Wine Industry achieved 576 million yuan, 1.526 billion yuan and 2.73 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.98%.

Jinsha Liquor's sales target for 2022 is 8 billion yuan.

　　When a reporter from "China News Weekly" visited Maotai Town, Renhuai, Guizhou, he saw that many wine companies were expanding.

A staff member of Guizhou Wuyou Wine (Group) Co., Ltd. said that the company's annual production capacity can now reach 7,000 tons, compared with 3,000-3,500 tons five years ago.

"We will start to build a second factory in 2020. The factory is about 200 acres. At that time, we worked overtime to build and started production last year. Last year, we also acquired a winery." Guizhou Jinjiao Wine Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. A person in charge said that now his company has an annual production capacity of 6,000 tons, but only sells 4,000 tons to the outside world, which is in short supply.

"Our company is also expanding, from the current 200 acres to about 300 acres."

　　In recent years, a large amount of capital has entered Maotai Town to invest in the sauce wine market.

Sauce liquor, namely sauce-flavor liquor, is one of the main flavors of Chinese liquor.

But in terms of output, compared with the strong fragrance and the fragrance, the sauce fragrance is only a small category.

According to data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, in 2021, the production capacity of soy sauce and wine in China will be about 600,000 kiloliters, accounting for 8.4% of the 7,156,300 kiloliters of liquor production in my country.

　　Zhang Fangli, chairman of Guizhou Qianjiu Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Qianjiu"), deputy to the Zunyi Municipal People's Congress, and vice president of Renhuai Brewing Industry Association, told China News Weekly that the sauce-flavored wine market continued to be hot. , Some capital swarmed into Renhuai and bought local wineries in Maotai Town, but they did not want to produce sauce wine in a down-to-earth manner, just for hype.

"I also saw some listed companies who came to Renhuai to buy wine companies, but they didn't pay attention to cultivating quality and culture, let alone building brands, and they were selling basic wines. Later, they withdrew without making a name for themselves. This kind of speculative behavior has a certain negative impact on the sauce wine brand in Maotai Town."

　　Quan Tu, a sauce wine expert, told China News Weekly that this round of capital-intensive layout of sauce wine is more about the high profits and industry growth space of sauce wine.

According to the "2022 Annual Sauce and Wine Report" released by the Quantu Sauce and Wine Studio, in 2021, the sauce and wine industry will achieve sales revenue of 190 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, accounting for about 31.5% of the sales revenue of my country's liquor industry; the realized profit is about 780 million yuan. 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, accounting for about 45.8% of the profits of my country's liquor industry.

　　This kind of gold-absorbing ability is especially amazing in the context of the “counter-cycle” of many short-term, fast- and high-profit industries after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, and it is difficult not to be noticed by capital.

　　Hainan Yedao, with the halo of "China's first share of health wine", announced in April 2021 that it would enter the field of sauce wine, and plans to invest 240 million yuan to establish a joint venture company with the confused wine industry.

Under the concept of capital chasing high sauce wine, the share price of Hainan Yedao keeps rising. According to statistics, from May 18 to June 15, the share price rose by more than 150%.

　　In June last year, Jihong Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in the display and packaging of fast-moving consumer goods, announced that it intends to acquire not less than 70% of the equity of Guizhou Diaotai Gong Liquor Co., Ltd. through methods including but not limited to transfer of equity and capital increase. , and then hold the assets of Maotai Town's ancient cellar wine industry.

After the news was disclosed, Jihong shares rose to the daily limit.

At almost the same time, Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, whose main business is the production and sales of Flammulina velutipes and Agaricus bisporus, announced that it planned to acquire Shengjiao Liquor Industry, which is located in the core production area of ​​Maotai Liquor in Maotai Town, Renhuai City.

Affected by this, as of June 28, Zhongxing Fungi closed 6 consecutive daily limit, and its share price doubled.

　　In addition, capital such as Lai Yifen, Eternal Asia, and even Sunac came one after another.

It is not uncommon for people to invest in sauce wine across the border. According to the data, since 2020, there have been many non-industry capitals such as Giant Group, Sunac China, Beijing Lianmei Group, Xiuxiu Pharmaceutical, Shandong Stanley, etc. investing in sauce wine.

Whether it is the primary or secondary market, "dye sauce" seems to be a shortcut for companies to bail out or make money.

　　Renhuai, Guizhou is known as the "capital of soy sauce and wine", where half of the country's soy sauce wine production capacity is concentrated.

According to the "Securities Daily" report, in recent years, Renhuai City has successively introduced well-known enterprises across the country to participate in the integration of resources, with more than 30 contracted enterprises attracting investment and more than 30 billion yuan in capital.

Cai Xuefei, a beverage analyst, told China News Weekly that the entry of capital into sauce and wine is objectively conducive to industrial upgrading.

　　In fact, it is not the first time that capital has entered the sauce wine, and the sauce wine fever will not begin to ferment in 2021. Before that, Tasly invested in Guotai, Hubei Yihua invested in Jinsha, Fujian Wanxiang acquired Dongjiu, Lianmei invested in Anjiu, and Huaze Group Investing in rare wines has accelerated the prosperity and rise of the sauce wine category to a certain extent, and many brands have also performed well in the market.

　　But this round of "sauce and wine fever" is different from the previous capital entry to make wine.

In Cai Xuefei's view, the risk is mainly reflected in the fact that some enterprises in the sauce and wine have no brand, quality and scale, but only blindly expand and high-end under the ripening of capital.

"Some of them have only a dozen or 20 cellars. This kind of small winery without any competitiveness and entity has already been caught by capital, and then desperately hyped. This in itself is very inconvenient. Rational, or rather extreme capital 'comparisons'."

　　It is worth noting that after many listed companies exposed rumors of cross-border "drinking" in the past two years, the wine companies involved are not well-known, their production scale is not large, and some products have not even entered the market.

　　For example, the performance of Gujiao Liquor Industry, which was "phased" by Jihong Co., Ltd., was not outstanding.

According to the Qichacha App, the company's total assets at the end of 2020 were 87.5209 million yuan, total liabilities were 86.0014 million yuan, and net assets were only 1.5195 million yuan.

In 2020, the company only achieved a total sales of 1.3848 million yuan and a net profit loss of 1.7772 million yuan. At present, the number of social security participants is 40.

　　According to the information on its official website, the company is located in the core production area of ​​7.5 square kilometers of sauce wine in Maotai Town. It is a collection of production, sales, import and export, wine commodity trading, digital technology, financing A comprehensive enterprise integrating leasing.

However, "China News Weekly" inquired about "Sacred Cellar Liquor" on liquor distribution websites such as Jiuxian.com and Haojiu.com, but there were no related products, and only 8 people paid for the most sold single product in its Tmall flagship store recently.

　　Some people in the industry are worried that there is a risk of overheating in the fast-growing sauce-flavored wine industry.

Wang Junlin, chairman of Langjiu Group, also publicly stated that the "sauce and wine fever" should have cooled down, and the future will be repaid to make quick money.

　　Qiu Shuyi believes that the development of sauce wine has been overheated in the past few years, mainly because after the development of sauce wine has gained momentum, some capital can't hold back and want to come in quickly and make profits in a short time.

"The characteristic of making sauce wine is that it is slow, and their starting point is wrong, so it is difficult to stay." In the brewing process of all wines, sauce wine has the lowest yield.

It takes about 5 catties of grain (sorghum, wheat) to produce 1 catty of wine, and it takes about 5 years from production to bottling and factory sales.

"So making sauce wine needs to be slow, and it is impossible to make sauce wine in a short time with an opportunistic mentality."

　　On March 12, 2021, at the 2021 annual meeting of the Zunyi City (Renhuai City) Liquor Industry Association, Lu Yunhuai, the president of the association, said: "The 10 years before 2021 is a big cycle for China's economy and Chinese liquor. The short-term imbalance of wine supply and demand has brought us the so-called 'sauce wine fever', and brand-based, basic wine-based and even workshop-based enterprises have developed rapidly. The problem is, if it continues so fast, we will not make up for brewing, The homework of the brand and the market is like a car, if you keep driving 150 miles, something will happen."

　　Regarding the entry of capital, Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, said in an interview with the media that capital is optimistic about the wine industry, and investing in the secondary market is a rational investment.

However, if you invest in the liquor industry in the primary market, whether you can withstand the loneliness of time is an important question.

If you invest with the feeling of liking wine, it will be beneficial to the development of the industry.

If you just want to make quick profits through speculation, it will be a spoiler, and there are very few successful cases of such investment.

"Tonnage is Status"

　　With the heating up of sauce wine fever, the domestic sauce wine industry has also entered a new round of capacity expansion.

　　Quan Tu said that in many competition dimensions, due to the scarcity of production capacity, the importance of production capacity performance has become increasingly prominent in measuring the industry status of a wine company.

"There is a famous saying in the liquor circle: Tonnage is status. If you want to gain a foothold in the sauce wine circle, production capacity is the foundation."

　　In order to expand production capacity, it can be said that various wine companies are chasing each other and going hand in hand.

According to the "Notice of the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission on Vigorously Promoting the Implementation of 2,500 Key Private Investment Projects in 2022" issued by the official website of the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission, there are 68 alcohol projects involved, with a total investment of 77.694 billion yuan.

According to incomplete statistics, after all these projects are completed and put into production, Guizhou will add nearly 300,000 tons of production capacity.

　　Judging from the companies involved in the disclosed projects - Guotai, Jinsha, Anjiu, Jinpai Moutai Town Wine Industry, Jinsha Ancient Wine, Jinjiang and other enterprises, most of the production capacity is Maotai-flavor liquor.

　　However, the cost of expanding the production of soy sauce is extremely high.

The weight diagram shows that, first, the cycle is long.

The base wine of sauce wine can be produced and stored for more than five years before leaving the factory, and it takes more than ten years to form a stable quality system, so the capital turnover rate of sauce wine investment is low.

　　The mellow taste and rich fragrance of soy sauce wine are inseparable from the complicated process and the long fermentation and storage time.

Luo Aimin, deputy dean of the Agricultural Products Processing Research Institute of Sichuan University, told China News Weekly that the sauce wine process is very characteristic and can be simply summarized as "12987, four high and one long".

"1" refers to a one-year brewing cycle, "2" refers to two feedings of grain during the brewing process, "9" refers to 9 times of cooking grain during the brewing process, "8" refers to 8 fermentations during the brewing process, and "7" refers to the brewing process During the process, the wine was taken 7 times; the four highs refer to the high-temperature koji making, high-temperature distilled wine, high-temperature accumulation, and high-temperature fermentation in the brewing process; "one long" refers specifically to its long production cycle. Storage, blending, products; the storage period of sauce wine base wine is generally more than 3 years, so the production cycle of sauce wine is at least 4 years.

　　The second is the high investment intensity.

In Quan Tu's view, in the past, the capital construction of 10,000 tons of sauce wine in the Moutai production area plus the cost of production and storage reached 3 billion yuan, and the non-Moutai production area also required about 2.5 billion yuan. An unbearably huge expense.

Taking Maotai’s soy sauce wine project in Xishui as an example, the 30,000-ton capacity and the total investment in supporting facilities reached 8.4 billion yuan.

　　Not only that, since the concept of origin is still the core competitiveness of sauce wine at this stage, the production of sauce wine is also limited by land resources.

　　Compared with other flavored liquors, Maotai-flavored liquors have stricter requirements on the production area.

Li Hong, deputy director of the Brewing and Traditional Fermentation Department of the China Food and Fermentation Industry Research Institute, explained to China News Weekly that because the production of soy sauce requires higher temperatures, the production of soy sauce has high requirements for the environment in which the workshop is located. The requirements of the big environment also have the requirements of the small environment.

From the perspective of the macro environment, the production of traditional soy sauce wine prefers the warm and tropical regions that are closer to the equator and lower latitude; from the perspective of the small environment, it prefers the valleys with lower altitudes and surrounded by mountains, because These are all conducive to the high temperature requirements of sauce wine production.

According to the control points of producing good sauce wine, not every place in Renhuai and even Maotai Town is suitable for producing high-quality sauce wine.

　　The "Interim Measures for the Construction and Management of China's Maotai Liquor Core Production Area (Renhuai)" shows that the total production area of ​​China's Maotai Liquor core production area is 120.44 square kilometers. The traditional advantageous production area is 53.03 square kilometers, and the famous wine industrial park production area is 52.38 square kilometers.

　　In view of the special geographical conditions, various wine companies face different levels of capacity ceilings.

Wang Junlin has repeatedly stated that due to the very limited natural resources such as land for plant construction, the production of soy sauce and wine in the Chishui River basin will be limited to 200,000 tons per year for a long time.

　　However, the reality is that Renhuai has become increasingly overwhelmed.

Li Hong said that the production process of liquor basically does not use chemical products, nor does it emit toxic and harmful substances, but a lot of water is required in the production process, and pollutants such as waste water and waste residue may have an impact on the surrounding environment.

According to the requirements of relevant standards and regulations, cooling water must be collected and treated and reused, and the reuse rate is not less than 80%.

"In recent years, due to the increase in the consumption of soy sauce and wine market, many companies have opened up their production capacity, and the number of new workshops has increased significantly. Since the production of liquor is often located in places far from cities, the infrastructure in these places is weak, and the production process The sewage generated in the water is not well collected and treated, so it is directly discharged into the surrounding water bodies.”

　　In April 2021, the seventh ecological and environmental protection inspection team of Guizhou Province inspected Zunyi City and found that, except for a few companies such as Moutai Co., Ltd., which built cooling water circulation treatment systems as required, most of the remaining liquor companies were simple and simple. If the construction of simple cooling pools fails to meet the requirements of relevant standards and specifications, the high-temperature and high-concentration cooling water is directly discharged into the external environment, increasing the pollution load of each stream.

　　In the context of intensive capacity expansion, the scarcity of land has superimposed the shortage of raw material supply.

Hongyingzi sorghum is one of the main raw materials of Daqu sauce wine in Zunyi production area, and its quality directly affects the quality of Daqu sauce wine.

An industry insider described the importance of Hongyingzi sorghum as follows: If the land is compared to the "blood" of the sauce wine, then the raw material is the "meat" of the sauce wine.

　　With the increasing consumption demand of sauce wine, Hongyingzi sorghum has become a strategic resource for the healthy development of liquor enterprises in the production area.

According to the plan of Renhuai City, the output of soy sauce wine will reach 500,000 kiloliters by 2025. It is estimated that 5 million mu of red rice will need to be planted to support such a large production capacity.

　　However, Guizhou is a typical mountain agriculture. Multiple factors such as small planting area, no scale effect, and planting technology need to be improved, resulting in a low total yield of sorghum.

According to the data, at present, the planting area of ​​Hongyingzi sorghum in Guizhou Province totals 3 million mu, with an average yield of 700 catties of sorghum per mu, and the annual harvest can reach up to 1.05 million tons.

But even if these sorghums are all used to make Daqu Kunsha sauce wine, it can only produce 420,000 tons of wine (according to the consumption of 2.5 catties of sorghum per catty of sauce wine).

　　Under the boom of sauce wine, the increasingly tight situation of red grain has been transmitted to the nerve endings of wine companies.

According to the Zunyi City (Renhuai City) Wine Industry Association, the expert group established by the Wine Association in 2020 and 2021 found that a very small number of wine companies had a low rate of drinking in one or two rounds of production when they entered wine companies to guide the production process. , not even drinking after four rounds.

After investigation and analysis, and in-depth discussions with the Hongyingzi Sorghum Association, we finally found out the reason. In addition to the non-standard brewing process, there were also problems with brewing raw materials. The sorghum used by some enterprises was not local sorghum, but outside the province or even abroad Sorghum.

Because this sorghum is not resistant to high temperature cooking, it not only has a low wine yield, but also has a weak wine body, which greatly affects the development and reputation of the producing area.

　　The actual expansion of production is very difficult, but many wine companies advertise a production capacity of several hundred thousand tons, and even some small factories claim to have a production capacity of over 10,000.

The problem of false reporting of production capacity by wine companies is not only common in soy sauce wine, but also in the entire liquor industry.

Qiu Shuyi said that a sauce-flavored wine company with an annual production capacity of more than 1,000 tons is considered a high-capacity company.

It is not difficult to judge whether a wine company's self-advertised production capacity is reasonable, it can be calculated based on the number of its cellars.

The production capacity of a standard cellar is generally 7.5 tons to 8 tons, or about 10 tons at most.

"For example, an enterprise has 50 cellars, and the annual production capacity is at most four or five hundred tons. If it is claimed to be more than ten thousand tons, it is obviously against common sense, and it is suspected of bluffing."

　　In this regard, Ma Yong, vice president and secretary general of the China Food Industry Association, said in an interview with the media that if the sauce wine continues to maintain this expansion rhythm and development method, it is likely to reach the ecological upper limit, which will have a serious impact on the quality. Industrial development has dealt a heavy blow.

　　Regarding the expansion of liquor production, Guo Guangchang, chairman of Fosun International, has a similar view to that of Ma Yong.

At the Fosun International 2020 interim results conference held earlier, Guo Guangchang said: "The sales volume of liquor cannot grow too fast every year. It takes time to increase the production of liquor, and if it is too fast, there will be problems with the quality. Liquor is different from other products. , too fast is not good for baijiu."

"When you arrive in Maotai Town, don't look at the price"

　　Walking through Maotai Town, you can see small stores with different names of wine companies. In addition to selling wine to foreign tourists, these stores have also become places for negotiating investment and cooperation with visitors.

"China News Weekly" reporters visited a number of stores in the name of seeking business cooperation.

　　The person in charge of a store in Guizhou Wuyou Liquor (Group) Co., Ltd. said that in recent years, in order to regulate the market, the market supervision bureau requires that each wine must be affixed with a barcode containing the price when it leaves the factory.

"Before there was no barcode, it was all customers who set their own prices. We have a customer who took a wine from us. The ex-factory price was more than 30 yuan, but he marked it on the market for 1,299 yuan. After our leader found out when he was on a business trip , thinking that its price is too high, deceiving consumers and hurting our brand, so it directly terminated cooperation with him."

　　The person in charge of a store in Guizhou Bayi Wine (Group) Co., Ltd. revealed that if a customer cooperates with the company, the wine with an ex-factory price of more than 100 yuan from the company is also a wine brewed with sauce-flavored pure grains and a formal traditional craft.

"It doesn't matter if the scan code price is a few hundred yuan or a thousand yuan."

　　The person in charge of a store in Jinjiang Liquor Co., Ltd. said bluntly: "When you arrive in Maotai Town, don't look at the price." He introduced that the company's "Jinjiang 1909 Chuangjiang Legend", the investment price of 299 yuan per bottle, is said by outsiders. It is "Little Moutai", and the scan price is 899 yuan.

A company in Beijing cooperated with the company for a custom-made wine. The ex-factory price of the wine is more than 200 yuan, and the scanning price is 1,688 yuan.

"The price of customized wine is set by the customer. There are also barcodes, manufacturers, and production licenses on it, otherwise it is a three-no product." The person in charge also said that there are many companies that do OEM with the company.

"OEM wine is usually the packaging and bottle designed by the customer, and then they choose a wine type, fill it here, we send it, and it must also have our company's factory name, barcode, etc. on it."

　　In April last year, at the National Food and Drinks Fair held in Chengdu, sauce wine became a popular category, and even a sauce wine theme exhibition was held for the first time in history.

In addition to Maotai, Langjiu and other Maotai liquor giants, many small and medium-sized sauce liquor brands have emerged, many of which are OEM and customized products.

　　In May last year, the Zunyi City (Renhuai City) Liquor Industry Association issued the "Notice on Regulating the Production and Sales of Customized (OEM) Wine", which strictly prohibits the production and sales of all kinds of non-standard customized (OEM) products, and will end in May 2021. Before March 31, all alcohol production enterprises will conduct a comprehensive cleaning of all customized (OEM) products.

At the same time, the notice also stipulates that from June 1, 2021, all kinds of customized (OEM) wines of all alcohol production enterprises must report in kind to the Municipal Alcohol Industry Association.

Three months later, the Bureau of Industry and Commerce of Renhuai City further issued the "Urgent Notice on Strictly Regulating the Production and Operation of Liquor Enterprises", which mentioned that all liquor enterprises in Renhuai City have developed "customized liquor" and OEM products. Strictly go to Renhuai Liquor Industry Association for registration and filing, and check and rectify the listing of enterprises.

　　However, when it comes to practice, there are many problems.

Cheng Wansong, secretary general of the Beijing Liquor Circulation Industry Association, analyzed China News Weekly that the Liquor Industry Association, as an industry organization, has no enforcement power, so banning unregulated OEM liquor can only be a call for industry self-discipline.

Market problems still need to be solved fundamentally by means of market competition. Experts from the government, associations, and independent third parties encourage and support consumers to master the ability to identify the authenticity and quality of products. To do a good job in these basic tasks, only Relying on the ability of the association itself is far from enough.

　　In addition, when visiting Renhuai City, the reporter of "China News Weekly" found that "Maotai Town Maotai Wine" sold in many stores was priced below 50 yuan/catties, and some of them were only priced at 18 yuan/catties.

A number of wine company bosses said that the wine at this price may just be broken sand wine (brewed from crushed sorghum and ground into powder) or Chuanjiu (also known as Chuansha wine and Chuanxiang wine, which refers to Using edible alcohol as raw material, steaming the dregs of the Daqu sauce-flavored process, and then using the solid-liquid distillation method to produce a sauce-flavored wine, which is essentially an alcoholic wine), cannot be the real Daqu sauce-flavored wine.

A wine company owner calculated such an account: the current grain price is about 5 yuan/catties, about 5 catties of grain yields 1 catty of wine, plus other inputs such as labor costs, water and electricity costs, and the production of Daqu sauce-flavored wine per catty. The minimum cost is more than 30 yuan.

　　Zhang Fangli told "China News Weekly" that in the core production area of ​​Renhuai sauce-flavor liquor, the overall requirements of Renhuai City do not allow the production of broken sand wine, and resolutely put an end to mixed liquor, so as to further improve the brand influence and market of Renhuai sauce-flavor liquor Competitive advantage.

Qiu Shuyi believes that in Guizhou Maotai wine, larger-scale enterprises, such as Maotai Group, Xijiu, Diaoyutai, etc., focus on branding, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are still doing OEM and selling base wine due to factors such as lack of funds. This is also a mode of survival and development, and this mode will exist for a long time in the future.

　　Regarding the phenomenon that the scanning price of some OEMs is abnormally higher than the ex-factory price, Qiu Shuyi said that in order to reach cooperation with OEMs and OEMs pursue higher profits, there is indeed a problem of inflated scanning prices. , while the relevant enterprises are doing a good job of self-discipline, the market supervision, industry associations and other departments should also do a good job of supervising and guiding this phenomenon, so that the products are genuine.

　　On April 12, 2022, the official website of Renhuai Municipal People's Government released the "Notice of Renhuai Municipal People's Government on Printing and Distributing the "Government Work Report", which mentioned that in the past five years, Renhuai has been adhering to the system A total of 622 small wine enterprises have been shut down and rectified, and 319 have been renovated and upgraded.

　　Zhang Fangli told "China News Weekly" that from an objective point of view, some non-standard wineries have affected the healthy development of Renhuai's entire sauce wine industry to varying degrees.

"We should remove the false and preserve the truth, effectively protect the resources of the Renhuai Maotai-flavor liquor production area, and protect the competitiveness of the key resources of the Chishui River Basin and Maotai Town's Maotai-flavor liquor."

"Sales more than halved"

　　While the production capacity of soy sauce and wine continues to expand, the market has also raised concerns that there may be a phased surplus in the future.

　　Henan is the province with the largest consumption of sauce wine in my country except Guizhou, and the sales volume of sauce wine in 2021 will exceed 20 billion yuan.

Zhang Taili (pseudonym) is a wine merchant in Zhengzhou, Henan Province. He has been in the business for more than 20 years. His store is located in Bairong World Trade City, the largest wine wholesale market in the country.

　　Capital is profit-seeking, and in the liquor industry, dealers are even more profit-seeking.

According to Zhang Taili, the gross profit of conventional alcohol is between 10% and 20%, while the channel net profit of sauce wine exceeds 20%, and some brands can even reach 40%.

As a result, high profits have become the driving force for distributors to promote soy sauce.

In recent years, many liquor distributors have even directly transformed themselves into operating sauce wine, and Zhang Taili is one of them.

In 2020, Zhang Taili's wine income exceeded 10 million yuan, of which sauce wine contributed nearly 80%.

As the sauce wine craze reached its peak in the first half of last year, Zhang Taili stepped up his efforts to store wine and became an agent of Guotai wine industry.

　　However, from the second half of last year, Zhang Taili found that the sauce wine was not so easy to sell.

"Compared with previous years, this year's sales have dropped by more than half." In addition to the decline in sales, profits have also declined significantly.

According to Zhang Taili, taking national and Taiwan national standard wine as an example, the price of the product sold by the dealer is 349 yuan per bottle. The previous market price was more than 400 yuan, but it can only be sold for about 300 yuan recently, and it has lost nearly 50 yuan.

But in order to achieve the sales target and get the reward, the dealers have to cut the price.

　　"China News Weekly" visited a number of tobacco and alcohol stores in Beijing and found that the price inversion of sauce and wine products does exist.

The price of Xijiu Cellar 1988 with a guide price of 988 yuan/bottle is generally less than 800 yuan/bottle, and the price range of Qinghualang with a price of 1499 yuan/bottle ranges from 1100 yuan/bottle to 1300 yuan/bottle.

In addition, Feitian Moutai's FCL and bulk bottle prices continued to decline.

Last year, the price of a whole box of Feitian Moutai was higher than 3,000 yuan per bottle for a long time. The current price is only 2,830 yuan. The price of each bottle of bulk Feitian Maotai has also dropped from the original 2,900 yuan to 2,635 yuan.

　　Zhang Taili analyzed that the bad market in 2022 is inseparable from the impact of the epidemic.

"During the peak of the epidemic, dine-in and gatherings were stopped, which led to the disappearance of many consumption scenarios for liquor." However, in addition to the external environment, he believes that it is also related to the sauce itself. In the past, some second- and third-tier sauces were sold well. Too expensive, there is a big price bubble.

　　Previously, as the market price of Feitian Moutai exceeded 3,000 yuan per bottle, many second-tier sauce wine brands such as Langjiu, Guotai, Xijiu, and Diaoyutai enjoyed the benefits. As Maotai's "substitute" status, the price increased in turn, which further aggravated the situation. Channel tension.

　　But in fact, except for a few top brands, most of the sauce wines are not in short supply as advertised, and this situation is more obvious in the field of OEM wines.

　　On June 7 last year, Lai Yifen stated on the interactive platform that in order to meet the diversity of consumer needs, Shanghai Zuai Liquor Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, launched its own brand Maotai-flavor liquor products in early 2020.

At present, Zui Ai series Maotai-flavor liquor products have been sold in all channels in Laiyifen (including online platforms, offline stores and group purchase distribution channels).

At that time, on the Tmall flagship store in Laifen, Guizhou 53° Zui Ai Red Sauce Wine and Zui Ai No. 6 Sauce Wine were sold at 1,199 yuan and 1,299 yuan respectively. However, this year, the prices have been adjusted to 499 yuan and 799 yuan. yuan, and monthly sales were 0.

The product details show that the above-mentioned products are produced by Linhe Wine Co., Ltd., Maotai Town, Renhuai City, Guizhou Province.

In other words, the liquor sold by Lai Yifen is OEM sauce liquor.

　　According to the company's data, since 2020, there have been more than 8,000 new wine-related companies in Renhuai, and the current number is 14,447.

Among them, there are 10,352 companies with a registered capital of less than 5 million, and 2,972 and 4,187 new companies will be added in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

　　Liquor companies are crazy, but in fact, the consumption of liquor in my country has been declining in recent years.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic liquor production peaked in 2016, when the annual output was 13.58 million kiloliters. Since then, it has entered a sharp decline. By 2021, it has dropped to 7.1563 million kiloliters, a full drop from the peak in 2016. 47.3%, almost cut in half.

　　Zhao Yu, deputy secretary-general of the China Alcohol Circulation Association, once analyzed that the competition of liquor is not the competition of flavor in the true sense, but the competition of quality and brand.

In his view, except for Moutai, other brands of Maotai have a relatively low sales base, so they seem to grow faster.

In fact, even if the growth rate is fast, there are only a handful of companies with annual sales of more than 1 billion yuan, and there is a big gap between the number of companies with the same scale of sales of other fragrance brands.

If the average price of a single bottle of wine is superimposed, the annual per capita consumption of sauce-flavored wine in the country is even less.

"As of now, the popularity of sauce wine in the consumption field is limited."

　　According to the research report of Huachuang Securities, according to channel research and feedback, the large sauce and wine merchants in Henan, Guangdong, Hubei and other places currently have large inventories, and most of them are operating with capital leverage. It is necessary to be alert to the centralized release of production capacity after 2023-2024. price cycle risk.

Has the "sauce and wine fever" subsided?

　　A meeting last year made Maoxiang wine show "signs of cooling down".

　　On August 20 last year, the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration held a symposium on the supervision of liquor market order. In addition to traditional wine companies such as Wuliangye and Shuijingfang, the companies invited by the State Administration of Market Regulation also included Jihong and Eternal Asia.

As can be seen from the documents flowing out of the meeting, the General Administration emphasized the "market order" of liquor, which conveyed that the regulators have noticed the potential risks.

　　Data show that after the stock market closed on the day of the meeting, Jiuguijiu and Shanxi Fenjiu fell by more than 9%.

Kweichow Moutai, the industry leader, fell 4.44%, and once fell to 1,525.5 yuan per share during the session, hitting a new low since July 6, 2020.

　　Within two months of the meeting, some companies said they would terminate the acquisition of sauce and wine companies.

On October 15, 2021, Zhongxing Fungi Industry announced that it had decided to terminate the acquisition of Shengjiao Wine Industry.

Four days later, Jihong Co., Ltd. announced that it had decided to terminate the acquisition of Gujiao Wine Industry.

The above-mentioned two companies terminated the acquisition of Maotai Town's sauce wine enterprises, which was regarded by the industry as a landmark event of the decline of the "sauce wine craze" trend.

　　When talking about the reasons, both companies mentioned that "the macro environment of the market has changed."

According to Quantu’s analysis, the so-called “changes in the market macro environment” may refer to the fact that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has suspended the listing of sauce and wine companies on the main board at this stage, leaving no exit channel for speculative capital.

　　In 2020, Guotai Liquor and Langjiu successively disclosed their prospectuses and launched a sprint to the "Second Sauce and Liquor".

However, in 2021, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has given feedback to Langjiu and Guotai Liquor, and pointed out many problems.

Later, Guotai Liquor announced to terminate the IPO review. Although Langjiu did not express its position, there has been no progress so far.

　　Today, the capital market is not as "upper-level" as it used to be for dyeing and sauce enterprises.

The stock prices of Zhongxing Fungi and Jihong shares are back on track, and the stock price of Laiyi shares has also dropped from 21.30 yuan/share in mid-June last year to 13.55 yuan/share; Hainan Yedao rushed to 32.78 yuan/share after borrowing "dye sauce". fell to 14.41 yuan / share.

　　不过，在看似“酱酒热”降温的背景下，一些企业仍在大手笔投资酱酒市场。2022年2月16日，据贵州省习水县政府官方平台“习水发布”报道称，习水县与山东史丹利集团1万吨酱香酒技改项目已正式签约。在贵州省政府网站公开发布公示的《2022年贵州省重大工程和重点项目名单》中也有该项目，名为“习水县山东史丹利1万吨酱香型白酒技改并购扩能项目”。山东史丹利化肥股份有限公司一位负责人告诉《中国新闻周刊》，该项目位于习水县回龙镇，土地刚刚报批，目前正处于规划审批阶段。

　　史丹利官网显示，这是一家专业从事复合肥生产及销售、粮食收储在内的综合性农业服务商。资料显示，史丹利董事长高文班及其家族曾位列2020年胡润百富榜，财富为35亿元。高文班为史丹利集团总裁高进华之父。

　　前不久，山东史丹利集团等多家企业找到邱树毅，称他们想在贵州投资酱酒产业，准备“预约”贵州大学酿酒与食品工程学院的毕业生。“他们现在还是非常看好酱酒的发展，有的企业说要车间班组长、工艺员等几百人。我们学院的毕业生数量有限，满足不了那么多企业的需求。”

　　张方利认为，我国的白酒市场，从改革开放初流行的清香型，到大约90年代流行的浓香型，到近年来开始流行的酱香型，潮流不断在演变。酱香酒究竟能够走多远，还要受到市场检验。“现在，仁怀市每年酱酒产能总共才几十万吨，产能发展空间还很大。”

　　邱树毅也认为，酱酒在白酒中的市场占比从几年前的3%~4%，涨到了现在的6%~8%，未来这个占比有望翻一番，涨到15%~16%。未来还会有很多人愿意投资酱酒市场。越来越多的知名企业进入酱酒市场后，只要坚持理性投资，安心做好品牌和品质，进行良性竞争，对贵州酒产业发展有好处。

　　On January 18, 2022, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Supporting Guizhou's Development of the Western Regions in the New Era".

Among them, it is mentioned that "taking advantage of the origin and main producing area of ​​Maotai-flavor liquor in the Chishui River Basin to build an important liquor production base in the country." Qiu Shuyi said that the liquor industry is the main pillar industry in Guizhou Province, and the central government and the province have always supported it. The development of sauce wine.

"However, how to achieve standardized development and orderly development also requires the management department to do a good job of relevant supervision and guidance."