Securities Times reporter Tang Wei Zhang Shuxian Zhuo Yong
Since the beginning of this year, a new round of COVID-19 has hit major cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, affecting the production and operation of some enterprises.
In order to comprehensively evaluate and understand the impact of the epidemic on the operation of listed companies, Securities Times, together with the intelligent steward of capital market compliance - Value Online, launched a questionnaire survey on the operating conditions of listed companies under the epidemic. There were 507 questionnaires.
Value Online is a representative enterprise of regulatory technology and compliance technology in my country's capital market. It is committed to providing AI+SAAS service products "Easy Director", professional compliance consulting, ESG consulting, and customs investment for listed companies, companies to be listed, and financial institutions. Products and services, big data services, etc., help listed companies develop in compliance with regulations.
The survey was conducted in the form of an online questionnaire. The listed companies participating in the questionnaire covered nearly 80 cities, mainly first- and second-tier cities, mainly in Shanghai (accounting for 31%), Shenzhen (20%), and Beijing (6%). ) and other important cities.
From the perspective of industry, most of the respondents are from the manufacturing industry, accounting for 57%.
Since most of the employees are from the manufacturing industry, the number of employees of listed companies where the respondents work is mainly concentrated in "1,000 to 5,000", accounting for 43%.
From the perspective of market value, 93% of the respondents work for listed companies with a market value of less than 50 billion yuan, among which small and medium-sized listed companies with a market value of less than 10 billion yuan are the most, accounting for 69%.
The types of enterprises are mainly private enterprises, accounting for 69%.
The survey results show that some listed companies are currently suffering from problems such as shutdowns, shrinking orders, surging costs, poor logistics, and "broken chains" in the industrial chain.
Shrinking demand reduces orders
Under the epidemic, the changes in orders in related industries have attracted much attention.
On the one hand, due to the repeated global epidemics and the slowdown in the economic recovery process, consumer demand has declined and orders have decreased; on the other hand, the impact of the epidemic on the slowdown in logistics and transportation still exists, and supply chain bottlenecks cannot be completely alleviated in the short term, and orders are delivered. greatly affected.
In addition, the successive closures and controls in many places in China have also led to poor production stability in factories, and some orders have flowed overseas.
More than 90% of the respondents believe that the epidemic will have an impact on the implementation of the company's annual sales plan.
88% of the respondents believe that under the influence of the epidemic, the market demand for the company's products has been suppressed, resulting in a decrease in orders.
Among them, more than 20% of the respondents believed that the degree of reduction was more than 30%.
As the area with the most serious epidemic in this wave, since March, following the "semi-closed city", Shanghai has entered the "global static management". Influence.
Ms. Song, Secretary of the Board of Directors of a large listed manufacturing company in Jinshan District, Shanghai, told reporters that the logistics obstruction made the company's production only rely on stocked raw materials, and negotiated with suppliers around Jiangsu and Zhejiang to supply orders in small batches through various channels.
At the same time, the finished products produced by the company cannot go out, but the downstream enterprises are still running, which makes the customer's subsequent orders at risk of transferring to competitors.
In the face of the above unfavorable situation, the company actively responded and implemented closed-loop production in the factory to ensure that orders are delivered to customers as soon as possible when the logistics is smooth after the unsealing.
In addition, the company will continue to improve the production process to reduce production costs as much as possible.
At the same time, the company's domestic and foreign production plants outside Shanghai have now prioritized ensuring production delivery to ensure the delivery and continuation of orders.
Mr. Liu, the person in charge of a listed telecommunications company headquartered in Shenzhen and with production bases in East China, South China and overseas, said that since the epidemic, the company’s orders have been partially reduced and lost. The main reasons for the decrease in orders are as follows: Points: First, due to the epidemic, the delivery of in-transit orders has slowed down, orders received cannot be delivered on time, and finished orders cannot be delivered to customer warehouses; second, factories in Shenzhen and the Yangtze River Delta have been affected by the epidemic, and some customers are considering new orders. The possibility of competitors not in the epidemic area.
In addition, currently in-transit orders are affected by the epidemic and logistics, and there is a lot of pressure on delivery.
Oukeyi is a company listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board with high-precision CNC tools as its main business. The company recently revealed through an interactive platform that at present, affected by the Shanghai epidemic, the company mainly solves the problem of export order delivery by changing the exit port.
As some tool imports are affected by the epidemic, the company will also receive inquiries and sample orders for some replacement imported tool products, and it will take time to fully fill the vacancies.
In addition, the transfer of industrial chain orders overseas is also worthy of attention.
According to the survey data, 13% of listed companies believe that their company or industrial chain has orders transferred overseas. The respondents believe that the main reason for the transfer of orders from the company or industrial chain overseas is that "the impact of overseas epidemics has slowed down and production capacity has gradually recovered." , "rising costs of domestic labor, materials, land, etc." and "the impact of logistics caused by the epidemic in my country".
The reporter found that a considerable proportion of the interviewees were worried that the epidemic has promoted the transfer of production capacity, and it may be transferred to overseas regions such as Southeast Asia in the future.
Mr. Liu revealed that, as far as he knows, all telecommunications companies with overseas business coverage are affected by the transfer of overseas orders.
On the one hand, tax issues caused by Sino-US trade frictions will affect orders in North America.
On the other hand, the impact of the overseas epidemic on the production and supply chain is gradually weakening, but the pressure on production and supply chain caused by the repeated epidemics in China is relatively large, and the instability of the supply chain and production due to the impact of the epidemic in the future cannot be estimated, and there are some overseas orders. Gradually transfer to overseas counterparts.
Fiyta recently said in an institutional survey that the future impact of the epidemic on supply chain orders depends on the speed of epidemic control and unblocking. The faster the impact, the smaller the impact, and the slower the impact.
In the short term, some customers' international orders will be transferred out. If they cannot be controlled as soon as possible, some orders will be transferred overseas for a long time.
However, due to the stickiness between the company and customers, it will follow customers to Southeast Asia and other overseas regions for overall long-term services.
In addition, the epidemic has also adversely affected domestic companies taking overseas orders.
During the recent investigation, Lanxiao Technology said frankly that due to the impact of the international epidemic, the company's business personnel have been unable to travel overseas for the past two years, and there have also been no inbound business exchanges with overseas customers.
Due to the inability to conduct on-site business exchanges and technical experiments, and the high project value in the metal field, the landing pace of large-scale commercial orders has also been extended.
Yuan Meihe, chairman of Oukeyi, revealed at the annual shareholders' meeting on April 21, "Because of the impact of the epidemic, some international exhibitions have been cancelled, but we have always maintained close contact with the international market. The epidemic will eventually end, and overseas buyers urgently need China. Blades. Especially after the occurrence of geopolitical conflicts, there will be a certain disturbance to the global supply chain. Eastern European countries are actively seeking Chinese blade suppliers, and several inquiries have been sent.”
Insufficient orders have led some companies to take measures such as employee holidays.
On April 22, Shuobed Seiko, located in Huizhou City, Guangdong Province, issued a holiday notice for some employees, saying that due to the significant reduction in the company's current orders, it plans to take some employees on vacation in batches from April 22, and the longest holiday period is not long. more than 6 months.
Shutdown and product flow blocked
Cause supply chain "broken chain"
For any manufacturing enterprise, an unimpeded supply chain is the "lifeline" of the enterprise's development. Only by ensuring the continuous supply of upstream raw materials and the continuous decoupling of downstream product output and sales, can the enterprise operate on a normal track.
However, affected by the current round of the epidemic, many companies have experienced "blocking points" in their upstream and downstream supply chains.
The supply chain is blocked, on the one hand, because some factories have stopped production and production, resulting in the inability to keep up with the production capacity.
"Some of our upstream suppliers are in the epidemic area and have been forced to stop production, so we cannot deliver the parts and materials needed for production in time." Mr. Liu told reporters that the upstream supply "dropped the chain", and in-transit orders appeared. greater delivery pressure.
Through the interactive platform, USI stated that since 2021, the shortage of ICs has caused the electronic supply chain to be very tense. Now, coupled with the continuous closure and control measures in response to the epidemic, local suppliers have stopped work and production, which is expected to affect the company's revenue in April. have some influence.
The listed company Minovar also stated that with the repeated epidemics at home and abroad, the company's production and operation have been affected to a certain extent, mainly due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream raw material companies.
However, the company has predicted and deployed in advance, and strengthened the management of raw materials. Therefore, the current production and operation impact caused by the epidemic is generally controllable.
"Under this round of the epidemic, companies have stopped work and production in many parts of the country, which will lead to problems in the connection of all links in the manufacturing supply chain, and then the prosperity of the entire industry will decline." Ms. Song pointed out that this does not only affect Shanghai. In one place, many companies across the country have been affected by the epidemic, either closed or closed down.
When an enterprise can stop its losses depends on when the lockdown is lifted and the whole society resumes full production and operations. The longer the lockdown and the longer the shutdown of the entire supply chain system, the greater the losses. The superimposed deduction of each link may increase. The mismatch between production resources, capacity and demand may cause costs and prices to be inverted.
In addition to the lack of production capacity due to the shutdown of production, the obstruction of logistics makes the transportation of upstream and downstream products difficult, which is also a major problem facing enterprises at present.
In this questionnaire survey, 58% of the interviewed companies reported the difficulty of "logistics is not smooth, which leads to the obstruction of raw material supply".
Ms. Song said that due to the epidemic prevention and control requirements in Shanghai, other provinces and cities are basically unable to enter and exit except for epidemic prevention materials, which has resulted in the inability of logistics vehicles including the raw materials required for the transportation of factory production to enter Shanghai smoothly, resulting in the blockage of the supply of raw materials.
Mr. Wang, secretary of the board of a listed company in the packaging industry in Shanghai, told reporters: "The main bottleneck faced by the company during the epidemic is that the logistics is not smooth, and the company's products cannot be shipped smoothly, resulting in accumulating warehouses and rising costs." With the closure and control measures adopted in many places due to the epidemic, the secretary of the board of directors is worried that once there is a situation such as poor logistics, the industrial chain will be forced to be interrupted again. "The company's factories outside Shanghai are subject to local epidemic control requirements. Temporary suspension of production to varying degrees.”
He said that the original company's factory in Shanghai did not voluntarily shut down due to the epidemic, and had implemented closed management long before the closure. Prolonged, inbound and outbound logistics were greatly affected, and due to the customer's factory shutdown, all warehouses were full and had to be forced to temporarily suspend production.
In addition, Mr. Zhang, a relevant person in charge of a listed biopharmaceutical company in Shandong, introduced that the initial outbreak of the epidemic had a relatively large impact on the entire supply chain. Expressway intersections were completely closed, and there were many cases where foreign vehicles could not deliver goods and could not enter or exit. There are three types of companies that may The impact is slightly smaller: first, companies that have made sufficient raw material reserves in advance; second, companies with a long industrial chain and a rich product line structure can make flexible adjustments according to the real-time production situation, so their ability to resist risks will be relatively high. The third is a company with fully enclosed personnel stationed in the factory, which can ensure the normal operation of the production process and have sufficient staff support.
USI said that although the supply chain and logistics are limited, due to the seasonality of orders, there is surplus production capacity in the second quarter of each year. As the epidemic situation improves and the logistics supply problem is resolved, each factory has the ability to mobilize the surplus production capacity. Accelerating production and shipments is expected to have a limited impact on revenue throughout the second quarter.
Logistics, Materials, Epidemic Prevention
Three major cost surges
Due to the suspension of production and production due to the epidemic, rising raw materials, high logistics costs, difficult and expensive recruitment, and other issues, listed companies are under great cost pressure.
In this questionnaire, nearly 60% of the respondents believe that the company currently has "increased costs".
Ms. Song said that due to the impact of the epidemic, all enterprises in the industrial chain will be affected by the shutdown or the shutdown of upstream and downstream enterprises, and the company's production and operation activities will also be affected a lot, resulting in production costs, logistics costs, epidemic prevention costs and labor costs. There are varying degrees of rise.
The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned Shandong biopharmaceutical listed company also revealed that although the local epidemic situation is not serious, the company's logistics and labor costs have also increased due to factors such as nucleic acid testing, disinfection, and logistics and transportation obstructions.
The reporter noticed that in this questionnaire survey, more than 60% of the respondents believed that the main reasons for the increase in the company's costs caused by the epidemic included factors such as "increasing logistics costs", "rising raw material costs" and "high corporate epidemic prevention costs".
Among them, the increase in logistics costs has become the most prominent difficulty for listed companies during the epidemic, and more than 70% of the listed companies interviewed have this situation.
Mr. Wang said that poor logistics has caused the cost to rise: "In terms of logistics costs, the logistics cost of a single short trip of two to three hundred kilometers has at least doubled compared with that before the epidemic." Not only did the logistics cost rise sharply, but due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, the company In the short term, spending on epidemic prevention has also risen by about 200% to 300%.
The questionnaire survey shows that 61% of the listed companies surveyed believe that the increase in the cost of epidemic prevention is also one of the difficulties the company is currently encountering, and the main factor behind the increase in the cost of more than 20 listed companies is the increase in the cost of epidemic prevention.
Mr. Zhang revealed that the company spent about 1.4 million yuan on epidemic prevention in the first quarter of 2022.
In addition, 69% of respondents said their companies faced "rising raw material costs".
Relevant persons in charge of a number of listed companies revealed that although the company planned the raw material reserves in advance, taking into account many uncertain factors such as the sealing and control time, raw material price fluctuations, etc., multi-party coordination is still required to ensure the supply of raw materials, and the cost has risen.
For many listed companies, it is difficult to effectively transfer the rising costs during the epidemic.
Mr. Wang told reporters that the company's downstream market is the fast-moving consumer goods industry, which belongs to the people's livelihood security category. It is difficult to transmit the various costs increased during the epidemic to the downstream.
In response to rising costs, the reporter learned that many listed companies are actively carrying out self-help.
Mr. Wang told reporters that the company is actively coordinating to help customers enter the government’s whitelist for resumption of work. Helping customers is helping us. When customers return to work, the company’s finished products can be delivered smoothly and drive production. The resumption of work and production, the logistics are gradually smooth, and the situation is improving."
Shentianma A recently stated on the investor interaction platform that the company has a production base in Shanghai. With the repeated outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the production and operation of the Shanghai industrial base will face greater pressure in the short term. The company is actively taking various possible measures to do Under the premise of good epidemic prevention and control, through the closed management of the park combined with the remote office of employees and other flexible and effective ways to organize and carry out work, business, product development, operation management, quality management and other work are carried out normally.
At the same time, we will actively use the existing production line layout to make flexible operation adjustment arrangements, and continue to tap into other production lines in areas not affected by the epidemic, so as to increase production opportunities and make certain compensations.
However, as many places have also adopted lockdown measures due to the epidemic, Mr. Wang is worried that the industrial chain will be interrupted again in the event of poor logistics. "The company's factories outside Shanghai are subject to local epidemic control requirements. There are different levels of temporary shutdowns."
Ningbo Huaxiang also stated on the investor interaction platform recently that due to the new crown epidemic, the company's main customers FAW Group, SAIC Group, T OEM, etc. have stopped production since March, and the company's production and operation have been affected. Requirements are gradually being restored, but the company's office location is still under control, and the degree of impact on the second quarter remains to be seen.
High calls for tax cuts and fee cuts
Smooth logistics is the most important
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the business situation of enterprises has attracted much attention. A series of measures have been introduced from the central to local governments to help enterprises tide over the difficulties. Are the policies accurate, can they be implemented, and do they meet the needs of enterprises?
Among the enterprises surveyed, only 7% of the respondents believe that the support policies they enjoy are relatively strong. However, because the implementation of some policies is a medium-to-long-term and dynamic process, the subsequent benefits will continue to expand.
Judging from the survey results, the most anticipated policy by enterprises is tax reduction and exemption. Among the 507 listed companies participating in the questionnaire, 82% hope to increase tax reduction and exemption for industries or enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. ” to provide policy support.
Since the beginning of the year, the state has intensively introduced a number of preferential policies for tax reduction and fee reduction. At present, a package of preferential tax policies to help enterprises to bail out is gradually being implemented. Among them, the large-scale VAT credit and tax refund policy is the "highlight".
The policy was officially implemented on April 1 this year. The latest data from the State Administration of Taxation shows that from April 1 to April 15, 420.2 billion yuan of tax refunds have been refunded to the accounts of 527,000 taxpayers.
The person in charge of the relevant business of a listed company in South China engaged in the R&D and production of machinery and equipment told reporters that the company's operating conditions have been seriously affected, and it is expected that the government will provide relevant tax relief and energy subsidy policies to reduce the operating pressure of enterprises, so as to help enterprises to survive the severe situation. overcome obstacles.
For listed companies in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions that are still under epidemic control, the most hopeful thing is the smooth recovery of logistics.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Transport has revised and issued the "Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic in Highway Service Areas and Toll Stations" (fifth edition).
The "Guide" clarifies that it is necessary to maintain the normal operation and service of expressways, and it is strictly forbidden to block or close expressways and ordinary roads without authorization, and to close expressway service areas and toll stations without authorization.
"At present, I hope to get support in production and transportation, to ensure that the materials produced by the company can be stationed in time and the finished products can be delivered in time." said the secretary of a listed company in Putuo District, Shanghai, "If these measures can be implemented, it will be good for the company. First of all, it can ensure its own production situation and deliver existing orders in a timely manner; it can also stabilize the signing of possible subsequent orders to ensure the company's subsequent performance; and then it can reduce the operating pressure of enterprises due to epidemic prevention and control."
The secretary of the board of a Shanghai state-owned listed company also told reporters that the top priority is the recovery of logistics. Relevant government departments will no longer quarantine freight vehicles and drivers entering and leaving Shanghai for 14 days. To ensure the continuous flow of vehicles, etc.), to promote the logistics to restart the normal cycle; for factories under fully closed management, speed up the approval of the "epidemic prevention + production" resumption plan, and agree that the company will resume work as soon as possible on the premise of epidemic prevention.
Mr. Liu expressed the hope that relevant government departments will help solve practical problems such as key resources (upstream partners resumption, logistics stoppage) and other practical problems required for the company to resume production, and at the same time, how to ensure the basic production of the company in the event of similar outbreaks in the future Without interruption, clearer epidemic control policies and regulations can be given, allowing enterprises to prepare more self-help measures in advance.
As a leader in various industries and the "basic market" of the real economy, listed companies have stronger strength and anti-risk capabilities than ordinary small and medium-sized enterprises. The impact and impact on them can reflect the impact of the epidemic on Chinese enterprises to a certain extent. Degree.
Although there are still many uncertainties about the impact of the current epidemic, I believe that as long as all localities take measures according to the situation and work together with enterprises to overcome the difficulties, they will be able to overcome the haze of this spring.