Securities Times reporter Hu Huaxiong
Yesterday, the A-share market adjusted sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points, down 5.13%, the largest single-day drop in more than two years.
The market "squat" that day was affected by a combination of factors, but in addition to the adjustment, some positive factors also began to emerge.
For example, some institutions believe that the market valuation adjustment may be close to the limit, and profit expectations are more important in the future.
As the market adjusts sharply, each index gradually enters the value range, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.
Shanghai stock index hits biggest drop in more than two years
On April 25, the A-share market fell sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,000-point integer mark, down 5.13%, the largest single-day decline in the past two years since February 3, 2020, and the major industry sectors across the board. down.
According to the statistics of Securities Times reporters, more than 700 stocks closed at the day's daily limit, more than 800 stocks fell by 10% or more, and more than 2,500 stocks fell by more than 8%. Such a large-scale deep decline in individual stocks has occurred in recent years. relatively rare.
In an interview with reporters, senior market person Gui Haoming believed that the combination of factors including the sharp drop in overseas markets last Friday, the devaluation of the renminbi, the repeated epidemics, and the recent large-scale breakout of new stocks caused the market to undergo a significant adjustment.
Huaan Securities also listed some of the main reasons for the sharp drop in the market that day, including the imminent Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, tightening expectations of monetary tightening, and a sharp correction in U.S. stocks, which constrained the external risk appetite for A shares; the market was increasingly worried about the future economic outlook; some representatives Negative news of individual stocks increased, investors revised down their performance expectations; the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate rapidly, and concerns about capital outflows increased.
Equity assets investment value highlights
As the market adjusts, there are still some differences in the views of institutions and experts on the outlook.
Gui Haoming believes that the market has not yet seen signs of stopping the decline. For investors, it may be necessary to wait for the market to stabilize before making a decision.
However, it is worth noting that some positive factors that may affect the market are gradually emerging.
In terms of valuation, the valuation of the A-share market is gradually lower than the average level in recent years, and has even tended to be undervalued.
The strategic point of view of Western Securities believes that, on the whole, the current market valuation adjustment is close to the historical limit. From the perspective of the price parity between stocks and bonds, the difference between the current implied yield of A shares and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds It also hit a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, showing that the investment value of equity assets is outstanding.
With the advancement of the epidemic policy and the launch of the Fed's interest rate hike boots in May, the market is expected to usher in a rebound window in the future.
In the medium term, what investors need to pay attention to is that under the downward revision cycle of earnings expectations, the market investment style will gradually shift from industry rotation based on PEG (price-earnings ratio relative to earnings growth ratio) to PB-ROE (price-to-book ratio-return on equity). ) changes in the value investing style.
Bohai Securities also believes that looking forward, in the short term, A-shares will still face risks such as the epidemic, the final stage of performance release, and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike boots, and the negative factors still need to be cleared.
However, judging from the current risk premium, the risk-return of the Shanghai Composite Index over the risk-free rate of return is 6.0%, which is close to the historical extreme level since 2015.
Some listed companies or important shareholders have repurchased and increased their holdings when their stock prices are sluggish, demonstrating their confidence in the market outlook.
For example, when the stock price plummeted on Monday, Hengrui Medicine, a leading pharmaceutical company, carried out a repurchase.
According to the announcement of the first share repurchase issued by Hengrui Medicine, on April 25, Hengrui Medicine repurchased 750,000 shares for the first time through a centralized bidding transaction, and the total amount paid was 22.3852 million yuan (excluding transaction fees).
On the same day, Hengrui Medicine fell by the limit, and the company's stock price has fallen by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
That night, a number of A-share companies, including Dongfangtong, Chuaneng Power, Jingfeng Mingyuan, and Qilu Huaxin, disclosed plans for important shareholders or directors, supervisors and senior executives to increase their holdings.
Huaan Securities believes that important internal and external meetings will be held soon, and the weak bottom may be coming to an end, waiting for the signal of oversold rebound.
The strategic view of Guohai Securities believes that with the substantial adjustment of the market, each index will gradually enter the value range, and it should not be overly pessimistic.