The world looks into the abyss: war, climate crisis, pandemic, energy crisis, inflation, stagnation and a growing number of people without prospects for advancement provide reasons for melancholy.

The presentations and discussions at the spring conference of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which ended at the weekend, confirmed the pessimistic mood.

Only those who search a bit will find facts and developments that give hope.

When regional conflicts drove up the price of oil in the early 1970s and triggered years of high inflation and stagnant economies, industrialized countries in particular were significantly more dependent on supplies than they are today.

Higher energy efficiency and the diversification of supply sources and generation technologies have contributed to this.

The big exception is the purchase of pipeline natural gas from Russia, which only a few countries including Germany are committed to.

But even in the country with its astounding presence of obstinate eco-pacifists and corrupted Putin sympathizers, rethinking has begun.

They want to get rid of Russian deliveries in a comparatively short time.

Democracies learn faster from their mistakes

Unlike in the 1970s, which is often used as a comparison because of the “stagflation” (record inflation with a sluggish economy) that was triggered at the time, the position of central banks has also changed.

Despite all the restrictions, you can act more independently than you did back then.

The danger of stagflation has by no means been averted.

But the conditions for avoiding them are better than they were 50 years ago.

What is also positive is the experience that the western world, with all its flaws and defects, does not fare so badly when it comes to overcoming major crises compared to authoritarian regimes.

Comments that China in particular has shown itself to be exemplary in fighting the pandemic thanks to its ability to take decisive action have proved premature.

Brutally executed lockdowns are also a result of the nationalistically motivated refusal to quickly approve more effective western vaccines and generally allow a change of course.

Authoritarian regimes are not always wrong, but they fail to learn from their mistakes.

For their legitimacy lies in their apparent infallibility.

Isn't that the lesson being taught to Russia's military in Ukraine right now?

The democratically constituted systems, on the other hand, are not always correct, but in the end they learn faster and steer around in a chaotic process for which professional observers should probably develop more tolerance.

Successful vaccine development

Moreover, in times of crisis, the West can mobilize its creative potential faster than the rest of the world.

The development of effective vaccines against the corona virus in a very short time is a great success of the western division of labour.

The realistic hope for technological breakthroughs to mitigate climate change rests almost exclusively on democratic, market-oriented countries.

Another good thing about the terrible circumstances is that they force you to do a reality check.

It is not only in Germany that the nonsense that rogue states are being tamed by trade are being expelled.

You won't.

Against this background, the sensitivity to the fact that global supply chains are fragile and sometimes have to be broken by sanctions has inevitably grown.

The great challenge lies in realigning the liberal international trading system that was so successfully established after the Second World War without giving up its great advantages.

Countries obviously have to fight back the freedom to say no to deliveries, so as not to be even indirectly involved in atrocities.

This includes increasing strategic reserves for energy raw materials, but also an emergency stockpile for important medicines and other essential products.

At the same time, however, all unnecessary trade restrictions should be removed.

The solution to international supply problems does not lie in protectionism, but in the diversification of sources of supply.

The founding of the International Monetary Fund and its success were based on this realization.

If he thinks back to this major core task, that can't hurt either.