"New" Observation of China's Economy | Decoding China's Economy: Disturbances by Unexpected Factors, How to Face the Difficulty?

  Zhongxin Finance, April 21 (Zuo Yukun, Li Jinlei, Shi Rui) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first quarterly report of China's economy in 2022.

In the first quarter, my country's economy grew by 4.8% year-on-year, and the national economy had a generally stable start.

  In the face of unexpected changes in the internal and external environment, such as a new round of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, how should China's economy perform in the first quarter?

In the future, how should we continue to adhere to the principle of maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability, so as to promote the high-quality development of China's economy?

The column "Zhongxin Finance, China's "New" Observation of Economy" interviewed a number of experts for authoritative interpretation.

The scene of the video interview of "Zhongxin Finance and "New" Observation of China's Economy.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Jun

The growth rate is 4.8%, what should I look at?

  "Generally speaking, the national economy is still operating within a reasonable range, but it also faces greater uncertainties and challenges." Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China Securities, said that my country's economy has been growing year-on-year for eight consecutive quarters and is in the process of continued recovery.

At the same time, the growth rate has improved compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and compared with other major economies in the world, it has also maintained a lead.

  Guan Tao pointed out that the world is now facing the problem of high inflation.

According to the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, the inflation of nearly 60% of the developed countries in the world has exceeded 5%, and the inflation of more than half of the developing countries and emerging markets has exceeded 7%, while the inflation measured by our CPI is around 1%, and the price stability is relatively stable in the world. Dazzling.

  Guan Tao also mentioned a prominent challenge currently facing. Due to unexpected unexpected factors, the smooth circulation of the economy has encountered new obstacles, and market economic entities are also facing new difficulties. The situation is rather grim.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, also mentioned that because many new changes have taken place in the domestic and foreign environment, the counter-cyclical macro-control will be further strengthened in the next stage, targeting some industries that have been greatly affected by the epidemic, as well as small, medium and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households. , to speed up the implementation of measures such as tax cuts and fee reductions, give full play to the role of structural monetary policy tools, and help market players tide over difficulties.

  Zhao Yang, managing director of the CICC Research Institute, believes that, "As a whole, to stabilize growth this year, we should rely more on fiscal policy. In general, the policy combination of "relaxed finance, loose money, and tight credit" is more likely."

Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities, was at the interview site of "Zhongxin Finance: "New" Observation of China's Economy.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Jun

Negative growth in consumption in March, how to stabilize?

  Consumption is one of the troikas driving economic growth.

Data show that in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 10,865.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; but in March, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.93%, showing a negative growth.

  Guan Tao believes that there are mainly the following reasons: First, the multi-point distribution of the epidemic has restricted offline consumption scenarios, such as a relatively large decline in catering; and some unexpected unexpected factors have increased the difficulties of market entities. , affecting income and thus consumption; in addition, the smooth circulation of the economy is blocked, and price increases also affect the willingness to consume.

  "The weakening of market expectations has not yet eased, and it has also affected the willingness to consume. Therefore, in the first quarter, residents' propensity to consume declined and their propensity to save increased, which was also the reason for the sluggish consumption." Guan Tao said.

  In the next step, Guan Tao believes that in addition to better coordinating epidemic prevention and control, economic and social development, and stabilizing market players, it is also necessary to increase rescue efforts for difficult market players and people in difficulty, and improve them through fiscal and tax policy support. expectations and cash flow.

  "For example, this year, in addition to tax and fee reductions of about 1 trillion yuan, we also have 1.5 trillion yuan in tax rebates. Improving the cash flow of enterprises is actually beneficial to maintaining market players and improving expectations." Guan Tao said.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, at the interview site of "Zhongxin Finance, "New" Observation of China's Economy.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Jun

Real estate sales area and sales double down, why?

  In the economic data of the first quarter, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 310.46 million square meters, a decrease of 13.8%; the sales of commercial housing was 2,965.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.7%.

In this regard, Zhao Yang believes that real estate is indeed a relatively weak sector among the three investment sectors.

  From the perspective of supply, from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2,776.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; of which, residential investment was 2,076.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%.

The growth rate of development investment is below 5%, and it is close to the zero axis, and the data is cold.

  "In fact, the most important thing about real estate is expectations." Zhao Yang said that on the one hand, real estate is affected by the general environment, and my country's big financial cycle related to real estate is going down; Sales were indeed relatively weak as well.

  Zhao Yang believes that the era of real estate-driven investment and economic growth has basically passed.

In the medium and long term, real estate may not repeat the very strong growth in the past, and will gradually stabilize in the future.

Zhao Yang, Managing Director of CICC Research Institute, at the interview site of "Zhongxin Finance, "New" Observation of China's Economy.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Jun

Prices remain low, will they rise in the future?

  Changes in the prices of people's livelihoods, which are closely related to our lives, are also reflected in the first quarterly economic report.

In the context of intensifying global inflationary pressure, my country's CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly larger than the increase in January-February.

  Guan Tao believes that, first, we mainly protect market players when dealing with the epidemic, and the recovery of supply is faster than demand; second, we take the lead in resuming work and production, and the fiscal and monetary policies are relatively restrained, and there is no "flooding"; third, we have always adopted The measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices play a certain role in the impact of rising raw material prices and the impact on final consumption of prices.

  "At the same time, the domestic market is relatively large, the industrial system of the entire industry chain is relatively complete, the overall supply is relatively abundant, and the logistics are relatively smooth in general. Under such circumstances, prices are relatively stable."

  Guan Tao also mentioned that in the first quarter, the added value of the primary industry increased by 6% year-on-year, faster than the average growth rate of GDP.

This is rarely the case.

"This reflects that my country's agricultural production, especially the production situation of special crops, is relatively stable, and the livestock industry such as pigs, beef, mutton and poultry is also growing steadily, which will play an important role in the stability of the CPI in the future."

  Regarding the question of whether there is a risk of stagflation, Guan Tao believes that the persistently high PPI needs to be concerned, and it will definitely be transmitted to the CPI more and more, which is also an important reason to pay attention to the trend of inflation.

  "However, the main contradiction in front of China is steady growth. Even if the CPI may rebound in the future, there is a high probability that the expected target of about 3% will still be achieved." Guan Tao said that as an emerging market country, we have a certain degree of response to moderate inflation. tolerance.

But inflation is related to people's livelihood after all, so various measures must be taken to keep prices stable.

The interview scene of "Zhongxin Finance, "New" Observation of China's Economy.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Jun

Will the repeated epidemics affect the achievement of the annual economic goals?

  When it comes to the biggest challenge facing my country's economic development at present, the multi-point spread and continuous impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored.

Wen Bin believes that in the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is crucial to maintain a reasonable range throughout the year and whether the economy can stabilize in the first half of the year.

  "In the current domestic economic operation, under the rising prices of raw materials and weakening demand, we must pay special attention to the operating pressure and difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, in the next stage, we must do everything possible to stabilize small and medium-sized enterprises through various policy support. Whether the entire Chinese economy can achieve a smooth and healthy operation is crucial," Wen Bin said.

  Zhao Yang said that in addition to unexpected factors such as the epidemic, global instability caused by the Fed's interest rate hikes and geopolitical conflicts has increased, and it is very important to be cautious, discretionary and determined in macro policies.

  Guan Tao also believes that we must pay attention to the Fed's unexpected tightening, which may affect us through trade exchanges, capital flows, and financial markets.

"Therefore, policies must rely on forward efforts and timely reinforcement, and research and prepare plans for new situations and problems, and constantly enrich the reserve of policy tools."

  In Wen Bin's view, the first quarter GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, which should be the low point of this year. In the next three quarters, there may be a trend of quarterly recovery. It is still confident to achieve the goal of 5.5% growth throughout the year.