Zhongxin Finance, April 19. On the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference for April.
Meng Wei, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and spokesman for the Commission, said that further sharp declines are unlikely.
In recent years, my country's ability to prevent and control pig epidemics has been greatly enhanced, and the breeding efficiency of sows has also improved. In particular, the production capacity of breeding sows is generally reasonable. After the price of pigs bottomed out and rebounded in the later period, there is a possibility of a sharp rise like the African swine fever period in 2019. Not big either.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the abundant production capacity and weak demand of live pigs, domestic live pig prices have continued to operate at a low level. From April 11 to 15, the national average pig grain price ratio was 4.63:1, which was in the first-level warning range for excessive decline for 8 consecutive weeks.
In order to effectively stabilize the market price of live pigs, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have continuously issued early warning information, and have carried out the central frozen pork reserve purchase and storage work for many times. .
If the price of live pigs continues to run at a low level in the later period, the state will continue to purchase and store and guide local governments to carry out purchase and storage, so as to push the price back to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
Meng Wei introduced that two factors should be comprehensively considered for the future trend of the pig market and price.
On the one hand, the domestic pig production capacity has gradually declined since July last year. The number of breeding sows at the end of March this year was 41.85 million, which is in the green range of pig production capacity control. In addition, the price of live pigs has been operating at a low level for a long time, and further fell sharply. The possibility is small. With the recovery of consumption in the later period, the price of live pigs is expected to gradually rise to a reasonable range.
On the other hand, in recent years, my country's ability to prevent and control pig diseases has been greatly enhanced, and the breeding efficiency of sows has also improved. In particular, the production capacity of breeding sows is generally reasonable. After the price of live pigs bottomed out and rebounded in the later period, there was a significant increase in the African swine fever period in 2019. Upside is unlikely.
From the perspective of the futures market, on April 15, the prices of futures contracts expiring in September and November were 8.3 yuan and 8.8 yuan per catty, respectively, reflecting the market's expectation that the price of live pigs will rise to a reasonable range in the second half of the year.
The National Development and Reform Commission will, together with relevant departments, continue to strengthen the tracking, monitoring and research of the supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market, do a good job in the regulation of the live pig market, and promote the operation of the live pig and pork market prices within a reasonable range.