According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 18th, from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2,776.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; the sales area of commercial housing was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%.
Experts said that the downward pressure on the real estate market is still relatively large, and in the future, the city-specific policies in various regions are expected to be further strengthened.
The annual growth rate of real estate investment is expected to be low and then high
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, while the sales area of commercial housing has declined year-on-year, real estate investment has maintained a certain growth rate year-on-year.
In this regard, Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the first is the role of relevant policies such as guaranteeing delivery.
Since the end of last year, all regions have adhered to the principle of "guaranteeing delivery, people's livelihood, and maintaining stability", actively promoting the resumption of work and production of real estate projects whose construction has been suspended in the early stage, and promoting the construction of projects under construction.
In the first quarter, the investment growth rate of real estate projects with a construction period of more than one year exceeded 10%.
As the construction of real estate projects progressed, in the first quarter, the investment in construction and installation projects in real estate development and investment increased by 0.9% year-on-year, driving the growth of real estate investment by more than 0.5 percentage points.
The second is the impact of land acquisition fees.
In real estate development and investment, the land purchase fee incurred in the early stage is gradually included in the real estate construction and construction, which supports the growth of real estate investment accordingly.
In the first quarter, land purchase fees increased by 0.6% year-on-year, driving the growth of real estate development investment by more than 0.1 percentage points.
The research report of Ping An Securities believes that in the short term, the current real estate sales are still in the bottoming stage, housing companies are under great financial pressure, and the short-term downward pressure on the investment side still exists.
In the medium term, with the strengthening of policies and the gradual control of the epidemic, the investment side is expected to gradually pick up as sales stabilize, maintaining the judgment that the growth rate of real estate investment throughout the year will be low and then high.
Policies to stabilize the property market are expected to continue to be introduced
Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, all localities will adhere to "housing and not speculating", continue to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations, improve the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, and actively meet reasonable housing needs, and the downward trend of national commercial housing sales may be alleviated.
With the continuous improvement of the long-term rental market and the accelerated construction of affordable housing, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.
Industry insiders predict that policies to stabilize the property market will continue to be introduced in the future.
On the 18th, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for Epidemic Prevention and Control and Economic and Social Development". Support the reasonable financing needs of real estate development enterprises and construction enterprises, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
In the future, there will be more and higher-level cities that will increase their efforts to implement city-specific policies to help the real estate market maintain a stable development.
With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the gradual effect of policies, industry insiders predict that the sales of commercial housing are expected to bottom out and stabilize in the second quarter, and the performance of the property market in the second half of the year will be significantly better than that in the first half of the year.