(Economic Watch) After a smooth start, how will China's economy cope with multiple uncertainties?

　　China News Service, Beijing, April 18 (Reporter Wang Enbo) In the first quarter of this year, China's economy grew by 4.8% year-on-year, and the start was generally stable.

In the face of further increasing downward pressure, what uncertainties should we focus on?

At the China News Agency's "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2022" held on the 18th, many experts gave answers.

　　Foreign trade is an important support for China's economic growth in 2021.

However, on top of last year's base of US$6.05 trillion and rapid growth of 30%, Chinese officials have bluntly stated that "the foreign trade situation this year is very severe", which also brings uncertainty to stable growth.

　　According to Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the current situation of China's foreign trade has "immediate concerns" but no "far-reaching concerns".

"Recent concerns" are mainly reflected in "external shrinkage and internal tightening": "external shrinkage" refers to the repeated impact of the global new crown epidemic, and external demand is faced with increased instability and share squeeze; "internal tightening" is mainly reflected in raw materials, bulk Commodities, etc., have local blockages in the supply chain, and structural imbalances in transportation capacity.

　　From a long-term perspective, Gao Lingyun believes that although the global economic growth rate is slowing down, the overall recovery trend has not changed, and the fundamentals of China's import and export growth have not changed.

At the same time, China's official bailout policy for enterprises and the foreign trade policy of cross-cycle adjustment may be strengthened in due course, which will play a supporting role in the growth of foreign trade.

　　Wei Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, is also relatively optimistic about the prospects of foreign trade.

He analyzed that from April to June each year is the peak season for Chinese foreign trade companies to receive orders and deliver goods.

It is expected that exports will exert force in the second and third quarters, which will relieve the pressure on China's economy to a certain extent, and imports will also rebound soon, providing support for economic growth.

　　The aggressive pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is another source of uncertainty.

Zhao Xijun, co-director of the China Institute of Capital Markets at Renmin University of China, analyzed that the impact is that every interest rate hike by the Fed may lead to changes or even reversals in market expectations.

In addition, whether the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes will lead to the accumulation of high-risk outbreaks or even collapses in the US financial market also requires close attention.

　　Zhao Xijun emphasized that for China, the most important thing is to maintain domestic economic stability, maintain a relatively stable policy, control risk points, and "be as fully prepared as possible to reduce the negative impact of potential external influences."

　　There is also a view that the Fed raising interest rates may constrain China's monetary policy.

Zong Liang, chief researcher of Bank of China, said that in recent years, China's monetary policy has both aggregate policy and structural policy. Against the background of high inflation in the United States and the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States, the Fed's interest rate hike may reduce China's aggregate policy space.

Therefore, the next step is to appropriately increase some precise investment in total and structural policies, so that "water" can be better poured on "dry land" to achieve better results.

　　The international environment has become more complex and severe, and the frequent domestic epidemics have also brought challenges.

Zong Liang reminded that the current epidemic situation is scattered in many places, especially in more developed areas, such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen and other coastal areas.

"Once there is a small decline in economic performance in these regions, it will have a larger impact."

　　In the face of the uncertainties brought about by the epidemic, since the beginning of this year, all parties in China have actively introduced policies conducive to economic stability to hedge against downward pressure, which has become an important support for the stable start of the economy in the first quarter.

　　"The economic data in the first quarter proves that China's macro-control capacity has been enhanced and its level has improved." Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, mentioned that the epidemic had a greater impact on the economy in the first quarter of this year, and proactive fiscal policies have exerted force. Appropriately ahead, the issuance of special bonds has been accelerated, tax rebates and tax reductions have supported enterprises, and a series of policy "combinations" have stabilized the macroeconomic market.

　　How should macro policy provide more "certainty"?

Bai Jingming believes that the key to proactive fiscal policy is to implement it.

Taking local government special bonds as an example, if the special bonds cannot be issued in time, there will be no physical workload, and it will be difficult to stimulate investment and stimulate the economy.

In the next step, we must promptly release the remaining special debt quota, and give preference to regions with strong solvency and sufficient reserves of projects.

(Finish)