[Market View] Folding screen mobile phones, freshness is not enough

　　Our reporter Jiang Han

　　"Worker's Daily" (April 19, 2022 Edition 07)

　　On April 11, VIVO released the X Fold, the first folding screen mobile phone.

So far, domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have basically entered the folding screen track.

　　In the mobile phone market with weak growth, the "folding screen" is undoubtedly a bright color that has been greatly expected.

　　According to IDC data, the global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 362 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.

Looking at the domestic market, according to data from the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in the first two months of 2022, domestic mobile phone shipments totaled 47.886 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%.

　　In contrast, data released by market research agency Omdia shows that from the second half of 2021, global sales of folding screen mobile phones have begun to grow rapidly, with shipments reaching 9 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 309% - no wonder 2021 is called "the first year of folding screens".

　　Why did the folding screen become the new darling of the mobile phone industry?

"Freshness" is indispensable - in the eyes of industry insiders, the folding screen is an attempt to break through the limitations of the appearance and function of mobile phones. Demand for screen size in large-screen applications such as videos and games.

　　In fact, in recent years, the lack of consumers' motivation to switch phones has become a major problem for mobile phone manufacturers - the average replacement cycle for Chinese users has exceeded 31 months.

A year ago, that figure was around 22 months.

　　In today's increasingly necessities of life, the most scarce thing in the mobile phone market may be freshness.

Fifteen years ago, the emergence of the iPhone completely overturned the feature phone market dominated by Nokia and Motorola at that time, bringing people into the era of smartphones.

Since then, manufacturers have continued to explore selling points from functions such as photography, music, and battery life. In recent years, the "involution" from screen size to screen ratio has also been a surprising move until "no volume can be rolled."

Product homogeneity is becoming more and more serious, and the market must find new exciting points, and the new track of folding screen came into being.

　　A new track means a challenge to new technologies.

According to Tianyancha data, there are currently more than 700 patent application information related to folding screens in my country.

From 2020 to 2021, the number of applications will reach a peak, and there will be more than 200 applications each year. These patent applicants include Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, BOE and many other companies.

　　There are two main technical difficulties faced by folding screen mobile phones, one is the screen material, and the other is the hinge process.

Most of the pain points of users are concentrated on screen creases, display failures, and cracks.

　　What hinders the promotion of folding screen mobile phones is also the price.

Folding screen mobile phones costing tens of thousands of yuan have become synonymous with high-end mobile phones, but from another point of view, the high price also blocks the willingness of some consumers to try.

　　Some experts pointed out that the current folding screen mobile phone is still in the market cultivation period, and after another 1-2 years, with the gradual release of flexible screen production capacity, the continuous reduction of costs and the continuous maturity of technology, the price of folding screen mobile phones will usher in a relatively large drop.

　　Compared with the volume of the entire mobile phone market, the current volume of folding screen mobile phones is still very small.

In 2021, the global sales of folding screen mobile phones will reach 7.5 million units, while the global smartphone shipments will be about 1.32 billion units in the same year, with the former accounting for less than 0.6%.

However, the industry's market expectations for folding screen mobile phones are generally optimistic, and it is even expected that 2022 is expected to become the "folding screen explosion year".

　　It is still uncertain whether the folding screen is a design that promotes innovation in the industry, or the entrance to the next generation of innovative design, or just a transitional product that "sells a fresh".

But what is certain is that the quality of folding screen mobile phones should be improved. It is not enough to have interesting "skins". Excellent systems, perfect functions, and intimate interactive experience are the "soul" of mobile phones.

After all, only a few consumers will give the opportunity for "freshness", and the vast market will only pay for good quality in the end.

　　One thing that is certain is that technology companies need to try new possibilities. Behind every disruptive innovation, there are the accumulation of countless technological attempts and the foreshadowing of countless technological explorations.