Last year, one of the darlings of investors, the Post share was badly hit this year.

At around 30 percent, it is in the red and is therefore one of the weakest values.

The record prices of more than 60 euros from September are far away.

Currently only 40 euros are paid for a share.

Business is going well.

The dividend will be increased sharply to EUR 1.80.

This means a dividend yield of 4.5 percent.

A share buyback program was also announced.

Otherwise, Swiss Post does not know what to do with the many cash inflows.

But the share price is not quite coming out of its valley.

What's going on there?

Daniel Mohr

Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.

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If you ask analysts about the stock, you get a mixed picture.

Christian Cohrs, stock expert at MM Warburg, sees the contrast to the sensationally good year 2021 as the main reason for the current sadness: "Many more packages were ordered during the lockdown, and the economy was going well," says the analyst.

"Now the growth is slowing down." After a 65 percent increase in earnings before interest and taxes in 2021, he now expects a slight decline in 2022.

High margin oligopoly

But sales continue to rise.

"And in the express business, Swiss Post has an oligopoly with high margins, and it continues to make a lot of money there," says Cohrs.

He advises buying the share with a price target of 59 euros.

Johannes Braun from the investment bank Stifel even mentions 75 euros as a price target.

"The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of under 10. That's significantly lower than last year when the P/E was 14, and even then that was a massive valuation discount to peers like UPS, Fedex, Kuehne + Nagel or DSV,” says Braun.

"In our opinion, the valuation level can only be justified under the assumption of a global recession with a massive slump in demand." But he doesn't expect that.

He also finds it inappropriate to tie the Post to other logistics stocks suffering from the prospect of falling freight rates.

"In the classic freight business, the post office only makes 14 percent of the pre-tax profit," says Braun.

"Most of the profits are generated in the parcel and express business, which is largely independent of the volatile price development of the classic freight business." He also expects constant profits this year, but at a much higher level than before the pandemic.

"Online shopping has established itself at a much higher level." From 2023, profits should then pick up again, driven by further structural growth in the global e-commerce business and efficiency gains in the freight business.

Highly profitable company

22 analysts recommend buying the share, none recommend selling it.

The observers do not see it as a disadvantage that the successful Post boss Frank Appel is stepping down as CEO next year.

The successor is regulated internally.

The fact that he has been on the Telekom supervisory board for more than a year is viewed critically by some shareholders.

Swiss Post is a highly profitable company.

Sales of 82 billion euros were booked in 2021 and an operating profit of eight billion euros.

With the current low valuations, a lot would have to go wrong for the price to fall even lower.

As is the case with so many well-performing stocks, however, Post was out of breath in the fall and stock market traders looked around for new favourites.

But that doesn't mean they won't go back to their old favourites.

The trends for Swiss Post are intact.