China News Service, Beijing, April 16 (Reporter Xia Bin) The "2022 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Financial Forum" was held here. Zhang Xiaohui, Dean of the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University, bluntly said when attending the forum that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the biggest black swan this year. Incidents and conflicts have brought a considerable impact on the Chinese economy in terms of commodity prices, industrial and supply chain security, trade and investment cooperation. Risks of secondary sanctions and long-arm jurisdictions imposed by economic and financial institutions.
Zhang Xiaohui said that since the outbreak of the conflict, the volatility of the international financial market has increased significantly, and risk aversion has been on the rise. The global economy has not only been severely impacted, but also added new uncertainties. In particular, the abuse of economic and financial sanctions during geopolitical conflicts is likely to Further intensify the de-globalization.
In addition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the domestic epidemic has also had a significant impact on the Chinese economy.
Zhang Xiaohui pointed out that since March, the epidemic has affected 28 provinces and cities, and many economic centers in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta have suffered serious economic impacts due to the rebound of the epidemic. Among them, the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places has been at a high level for several months. Remain.
In her view, under the influence of the epidemic, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased sharply. Not only is there a trend of differentiation among industries, industries and enterprises, but also different market players are more differentiated, especially those living in the downstream of the supply chain and contact consumption and The difficulties of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the service industry have intensified, and the pressure on demand contraction has also increased.
"The data that has been released shows that at the end of the first quarter, household deposits, especially the balance of fixed deposits, still maintained double-digit growth compared with the end of last year, which shows that the repeated epidemics are affecting the demand for credit and also weakening the willingness of residents to consume. At a time when the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has exceeded 60%, the pressure on the overall macroeconomic growth can be imagined," Zhang Xiaohui said.
She believes that the continued spread of the epidemic and the complex economic situation at home and abroad require China to take a longer-term perspective. Only in this way can we stabilize expectations to the greatest extent and promote the stable, healthy and high-quality development of the economy to the greatest extent.
The market is worried about whether the recent narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will reduce the attractiveness of RMB assets to international investors, especially whether there will be periodic outflows of cross-border funds for securities investment, which will make it more difficult for China to maintain the balance of payments and the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Big challenge?
Zhang Xiaohui responded to this, saying that China's economy is resilient, and its fundamentals will not change in the long run. However, these uncertainties in the economy are also a real test of the inherent stability, forward-looking, precision and effectiveness of China's financial policies. It reminds us that we must deal with it seriously.
"In today's complex and uncertain external environment and the urgent transformation of the domestic economic structure, we must adhere to the road of high-quality development. The focus of macro policies should be on how to increase effective investment and support the expansion of consumption." Zhang Xiaohui said At present, China is actively achieving a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention, cultivating outstanding enterprises with core competitiveness, further relaxing market access, building a new dual-cycle development pattern, and developing "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality". China Action, etc.
"These efforts are undoubtedly constantly enriching the connotation of high-quality development, and the 'hematopoietic' function of finance on the road to high-quality development is promising." (End)