What is the resilience of economic operation - an objective view of the current economic situation (middle)

　　In the first two months of this year, thanks to its strong development resilience, my country's economy has generally been operating within a reasonable range.

After entering March, there have been some unexpected changes in the international and domestic environment, and the downward pressure on economic growth has further increased.

　　How to face up to and decisively deal with new challenges?

Many experts said that the current situation should be viewed rationally, faced with difficulties, and taken practical and effective measures to further enhance the resilience of China's economic development.

A solid foundation for foreign trade growth

　　According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 9.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

Since the beginning of this year, my country's foreign trade import and export has continued to grow, maintaining positive year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, achieving a stable start.

　　Specifically, the import and export of general trade increased by 13.9%, and the proportion continued to increase.

Both imports and exports with major trading partners increased, and imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” and RCEP trading partners increased by 16.7% and 6.9% respectively.

At the same time, the main body of foreign trade business has sufficient resilience in import and export.

In the first quarter, there were 432,000 foreign trade enterprises with actual import and export performance in my country, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.

The import and export volume of private enterprises reached 4.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%.

　　"This fully reflects the strong resilience and great potential of my country's foreign trade, and there is still a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade," said Li Kuiwen, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis.

　　However, it should also be noted that at present, some unexpected factors in the international and domestic environment have exceeded expectations. The external environment of my country's foreign trade has become more severe and complex, and development is also faced with many risks and challenges.

Superimposed on factors such as last year's high base, from the monthly situation, the overall growth rate of imports and exports has declined.

　　"As the central banks of most developed economies represented by the Federal Reserve accelerate their withdrawal from loose monetary policies, global financial conditions have tightened, coupled with the impact of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the momentum of world economic recovery has weakened." Institute of International Economics, University of International Business and Economics Professor Zhu Caihua said that from the external situation, the global demand is weakening, the external environment for my country's foreign trade development is tightening, and the growth momentum will slow down.

　　At the same time, the recent domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is severe and complicated, which has caused a certain impact on the coastal areas with the strongest foreign trade competitiveness.

Zhu Caihua said that port cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have been hit the hardest, and some foreign trade enterprises are facing problems such as production and operation obstruction and poor logistics and transportation.

Problems such as rising raw material costs, poor cross-border shipping, and supply chain bottlenecks have not been fundamentally alleviated, and foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are facing greater operational pressure.

　　Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of International Economics of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that the domestic epidemic has spread in many places since the beginning of this year, which has restricted the flow of labor and effective supply, and may also prolong the logistics cycle, which will have a certain impact on the industrial chain and supply chain.

　　Yang Changyong said that developed economies have a process from tightening monetary policy to transmission to the real economy, and the impact on external demand will gradually be reflected in the second and third quarters.

There is still great uncertainty in the global epidemic situation, and protectionism is also on the rise.

At the same time, the positive effect of the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on trade and investment will gradually become prominent after the second quarter.

Consumer market recovers

　　Since the beginning of this year, my country's consumer market has been running smoothly, the recovery of market sales has accelerated, basic living consumption has maintained steady and rapid growth, and upgraded consumption demand has continued to release.

　　Overall, the recovery of the consumer market has accelerated.

The growth momentum of household consumption has improved. From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in 2021.

　　At the same time, new types of consumption are developing rapidly.

From January to February, the national online retail sales reached 1,955.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 1,637.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

　　"As the Internet penetration rate continues to increase, my country's online consumption has a good growth prospect." Zhao Ping, deputy director of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, analyzed that the growth rate of middle-aged and elderly netizens is fast, and their demand for basic daily necessities and health care products is relatively fast. Consumer demand continues to grow.

At the same time, the Internet penetration rate in rural areas has grown rapidly, and the proportion of Internet users has exceeded 30%.

In the future, related online consumption in rural areas will also show a rapid growth trend.

　　"But from the current point of view, the differentiation of service consumption is prominent, and the consumption of services such as cultural tourism is relatively sluggish." Zou Yunhan, an associate researcher at the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, said.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February, the production index of the accommodation and catering industry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, which was the same as that in December of the previous year, and the growth rate rebounded significantly.

At the same time, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the Spring Festival holiday this year, the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue decreased slightly compared with 2021, and there is still a big gap compared with before the epidemic. 56.3%.

Zou Yunhan said that after entering March, the impact of the epidemic on consumption has become prominent again, especially service consumption has been hit again, and the recovery trend of catering consumption from January to February has cooled in March.

　　"The repeated epidemics have led to the unsustainable restoration of consumption expectations and willingness, which is manifested in the weakening of the consumer confidence index again, the continuous increase in the proportion of residents' savings, and the structural changes in residents' consumption propensity." Zou Yunhan believes that residents' spending power supports consumption growth. The role needs to be further consolidated.

Policy effects continue to be released

　　The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 deployed policies and measures to promote consumption, requiring the stabilization of current consumption and the release of consumption potential. At the same time, it was required to make better use of the policy effect of export tax rebates and promote the stable development of foreign trade.

　　Zhao Ping believes that it is necessary to continue to give full play to the role of consumption as the first engine of economic growth.

"Last year, my country's final consumption expenditure contributed 65.4% to economic growth, much higher than the contribution rate of gross capital formation and net exports of goods and services to economic growth. Especially in the fourth quarter of last year, final consumption expenditure contributed even more to economic growth. It is as high as 85.3%." Zhao Ping said that from the perspective of supply and demand, consumption is the final demand, and investment is the intermediate demand, that is, the demand derived from consumption demand.

We must start with the most fundamental issue of promoting consumption to boost aggregate demand.

　　Zou Yunhan said that on the basis of continuing to do a good job in epidemic prevention, stabilizing consumption and promoting consumption will be placed in a more prominent position, and there will be more practical and quick measures to promote the recovery of consumption to a stable and positive direction.

On the one hand, efforts should be made to enhance employment and income security.

On the other hand, it is necessary to further release the consumption potential of durable goods.

In addition, we must continue to promote the rescue and recovery of the service industry, and promote the restoration of consumption scenarios in the service industry.

　　When it comes to promoting the stable development of foreign trade, Zhu Caihua said that all localities should continue to pay close attention to the implementation of foreign trade stabilization policies, especially to introduce more accurate and effective policies related to safeguarding market players to help foreign trade enterprises overcome temporary difficulties, and at the same time, they should focus on breaking through the bottleneck of logistics and transportation to ensure The foreign trade industry chain and supply chain are stable and smooth.

　　"my country's foreign trade still has great opportunities for development." Yang Changyong analyzed that it is necessary to implement the measures of "multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade" proposed in this year's "Government Work Report", expand the coverage of export credit guarantees to small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises, and strengthen Export credit support, optimize foreign exchange services, increase export tax rebate support, and create a better policy environment and business environment for foreign trade enterprises.

(Economic Daily reporter Feng Qiyu)