The short-term suspension of car companies will not change the confidence of my country's auto market

　　Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, SAIC Volkswagen, Tesla, Weilai and other car companies have announced the suspension of production.

Many people said on social media that if Shanghai continues to "block and control", it will have a serious impact on the Chinese auto industry and drag down the Chinese auto market.

In the words, full of pessimism.

　　It should be admitted that the epidemic has indeed had a greater impact on the auto industry. After all, Shanghai is the center of China's auto industry.

Last year, the national automobile production was 26.528 million units.

Among them, Shanghai Automobile produced 2,833,200 vehicles, accounting for 10.68% of the national total.

Such a ratio cannot be taken lightly.

　　But don't be pessimistic.

To observe the impact of an event, there must be multiple dimensions, not only the degree but also the length of time.

More than two years of anti-epidemic practices have taught us that as long as we unswervingly adhere to "dynamic clearing" and "prevent" the epidemic, the sooner production can be resumed and the stable development of the industry can be achieved.

Looking at the whole country, the epidemic situation in most areas has gradually improved, and it is racing against time to resume work and production.

Even in Jilin, where the epidemic was severe in the early stage, FAW Group has started full resumption of work.

The short-term "pain" that Shanghai is going through will not and will not shake the confidence of the Chinese auto market.

　　Some institutions have previously calculated that the cumulative annual production capacity of Shanghai and Jilin affected by the epidemic is 4.5 million vehicles.

Considering its actual capacity utilization, a full shutdown would result in an extreme monthly production of between 200,000 and 250,000 units.

If you look at this figure in the total production and sales of the year, it is not as exaggerated as some people have said.

　　Some people may say that some OEMs that do not produce in Shanghai may, like NIO, stop production due to lack of spare parts.

It has to be said that the automobile is the most complex industry in the civilian industry, and a car company faces the national or even the global automobile supply chain.

Most of the top 100 global auto parts companies such as Bosch and ZF set up factories in Shanghai and surrounding areas.

A car is made up of thousands of parts, and it is a fact that a complete car cannot be built without the supply of any one part.

But it should also be noted that after years of development, the supply chain of China's auto industry is intertwined and large in scale. In addition to the Yangtze River Delta, many parts and components companies are also deploying in the Pearl River Delta, Wuhan, Chongqing and other places.

Judging from the current situation, enterprises in these places are producing normally.

Therefore, it is possible to maintain a moderate sense of tension with regard to many online anxiety-selling remarks, but there is no need to worry about it.

　　China has been the world's largest auto market for 13 consecutive years, with annual production and sales of more than 25 million vehicles.

In the early days of the epidemic, as the city with the largest number of OEMs in the country, the factories in Wuhan were shut down for a longer period of time. Everyone expected it to be very pessimistic, but the national car production reached 25.23 million vehicles that year.

This shows that my country's auto industry has sufficient potential and strong resilience.

In March this year, the epidemic has occurred in many places in China. In addition, the international geopolitical instability has increased, and the production and operation activities of enterprises will inevitably be affected to some extent. However, the latest data released by the China Automobile Association shows that domestic automobile production in the first quarter of this year still 6.484 million vehicles were completed, achieving a slight growth of 2%.

　　More importantly, new energy vehicles continued the rapid growth momentum of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the production and sales completed 1.293 million and 1.257 million respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year, showing a good situation of both market size and development quality.

"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" believes that China's electric vehicles are developing rapidly, not only domestic sales have increased significantly, charging piles and other infrastructure are in place, but also may become the "world factory" of electric vehicles in the future.

Japan is a powerful country in automobiles, and everyone is so "optimistic", why do they have no confidence.

　　The huge market scale advantage and the untapped consumption potential also attract multinational companies to increase their investment in the Chinese market.

Last year, BMW sold 2.52 million vehicles globally, with China accounting for one-third of its sales.

At present, China has surpassed Germany to become BMW's largest single market in the world.

Based on its long-term optimism about the Chinese market, BMW has increased its shareholding in the joint venture BMW Brilliance to 75%, and invested heavily to build the world's most advanced digital production plant in China, as well as the largest R&D system after Germany. Also very explanatory.

　　From a policy point of view, the state is also underpinning and accumulating strength for the development of the auto industry.

Following the release of the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Market" not long ago, the State Council executive meeting held on the 13th clearly stated that large-scale consumption such as automobiles and home appliances should be encouraged, and local purchase restrictions should not be added. Gradually increase incremental indicators; support the consumption of new energy vehicles.

These policy measures are not only conducive to promoting better innovation and development of the auto industry, but also help stabilize the macroeconomic fundamentals.

　　Faith is golden.

In the face of the epidemic of the century and the changes of the century, the most urgent task is to unify the thinking, control the epidemic in Shanghai as soon as possible, and prevent the "short-term pain" from becoming "long-term pain".

In fact, we have the conditions and ability to "dynamically clear" more than any other country, which is also the premise and confidence for us to resume automobile production and promote the high-quality development of the industry.