Sino-Singapore Jingwei, April 15th (Dong Wenbo) At 24:00 on April 15th, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
According to the forecasts of many institutions, the domestic retail price of refined oil will usher in the first round of reductions this year.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
During this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices remained volatile. During the period, affected by the large-scale release of strategic oil reserves by the United States International Energy Agency (IEA), crude oil prices were under pressure and fell significantly on April 11. It fell below the $100/barrel integer mark for the first time since then.
At the same time, international geopolitical conflicts continue, Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not made significant progress yet, Russia’s crude oil production has declined due to sanctions, and OPEC’s subsequent increase in production has not met expectations, leaving a gap in oil supply in the market.
Zhongyu Information pointed out that during this period, the expected range of domestic product oil wholesale and retail price cuts has been continuously widened, and this round of refined oil retail price limits may be lowered for the first time after the year.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the eighth working day of April 13, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$103.04/barrel, with a change rate of -8.74%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be lowered by 615 yuan/ton.
Zhongyu Information said that as of April 14, on the 9th working day of this round, the estimated price of Zhongyu crude oil was -9.587 or -8.93% compared with the benchmark price, corresponding to -595 yuan/ton. It is tentatively expected to be at 24:00 on April 15. The retail price of refined oil products was lowered by 595 yuan/ton.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone six rounds of adjustments. Gasoline prices have increased by 1,985 yuan/ton in total, and diesel prices by 1,915 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "six rises, zero falls and zero strandings". No. 95 gasoline has basically entered the "9 yuan era".
If this round of cuts is realized, the domestic refined oil price adjustment will usher in the first cut in 2022, and No. 95 gasoline is also expected to fall back to the era of 8 yuan.
Regarding the market outlook, Jintai Futures analysis pointed out that in the short term, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the direction of the Iran nuclear agreement are still pending. .
Under the influence of many uncertain factors, it is difficult for the crude oil market to get rid of the high-strength operation pattern in the short term.
Zhongyu Information also believes that there is still great uncertainty in the global crude oil supply, and concerns about tight supply persist.
In the domestic market, Jinlianchuang said that the epidemic situation in some areas is still unclear, and the terminal demand for gasoline continues to be limited, but as gasoline prices continue to fall, oil prices have fallen to low levels.
Zhongyu Information pointed out that if the situation of the epidemic improves in the later period, gasoline demand may steadily rebound.
At the same time, the next cycle is still in the intensive maintenance period of refineries, and the supply of gasoline and diesel may be further tightened. There is still a narrow upward space in the later period after comprehensive consideration.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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